MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Hamburg

The UFC returns to Germany and is bringing a fantastic card for a Sunday afternoon. In the Main Event we have Former Champ Mauricio “Shogun” Rua versus Anthony Smith. In the Co-Main we have former title contender Glover Teixeria versus The Ultimate Fighter 19 winner Corey Anderson. In another exciting fight we have a must win situation in the heavyweight division between Marcin Tybura versus the seven-foot fighter Stefan Struve. Both are coming into this fight with a two-fight losing streak.

UFC Fight Pass Prelims at 1030am

Damian Stasiak 10-5 vs Pingyuan Liu 11-5

Damian’s 10 wins are by 1 KO/TKO 7 submissions, and 2 decisions. He is 2-2 in his last 4 fights and won 7 of his last 10.  He has a win over Davey Grant. He does have a fight of the night bonus. He also has 4 1st round finishes. He is a black belt in karate and a brown belt in Jiu jitsu. He is a very well-rounded fighter.

Pingyuan has 4 KO/TKO 4 submissions and 3 decisions. He is making his UFC Debut on this card. He is relatively unknow. He is bringing a 7-fight win streak to the fight. He has 5 1st round finishes. Has a wide range of submissions he will try and utilize.

This fight will end up on the ground. Damian will use his UFC experience to help him get another submission win.

Jeremy Kimball 15-7 vs Darko Stosic 12-1

Jeremy has 11 KO/TKO 1 submissions and 3 decisions. He is coming off a loss, so he is looking to rebound rather quickly. He is a Bellator Vet. He has a Performance of the Night bonus with a 1st round KO over Josh Stansbury. Look for him to use his striking and speed. If the fight goes to the ground, Jeremy is very proficient in ground and pound tactics.

Darko has 7 KO/TKO 1 submission and 4 decisions. He is 8-1 in his last 9 fights. He is making is UFC Debut. He has 2 wins over Strikeforce Vet Dion Starling. Look for him to get in a big double leg takedown. He also has great standing throws due to his extensive Judo background.

This fight will be fun to watch. This fight will spend most of the time standing, however I see Darko with another KO victory.  

Davey Grant 10-3 vs Manny Bermudez 11-0

Davey has 1 KO/TKO 8 submissions and 1 decision. He is 3-2 in his last 5 fights. He has a win over Marlon Vera and a tough loss against Chris Holdsworth. He was on Team Rousey for TUF Season 18. He is well Versed in Thai Boxing and Jiu jitsu. Of his 8 submissions he has 4 by rear naked choke, 3 guillotine, and 1 armbar.

Manny has 1 KO/TKO 8 submissions, and 2 decisions in his flawless record. Is well versed in Jiu jitsu. He has 4 triangle choke, 3 guillotines, and a rear naked choke. He does favor leg kicks to break down his opponent.

I see this match spending most of the time on the ground. It will be a classic Jiu jitsu match. Who ever makes the first mistake will surely loss this battle. I see Manny continue his winning ways with another submission win.

PRELIMS FOX SPORTS 1 12 PM

We start the FS1 Prelims off with a great match.

Justin Ledet 9-0 vs Aleksandar Rakic 9-1

Justin’s perfect record comes way of 2 KO/TKO 5 submissions and 2 decisions. He has 5 1st round finishes, as well as 3 wins in less than 2 minutes. He has a Jiu jitsu and boxing background. He also holds a perfect 5-0 record as a Pro Boxer.

Aleksandar’s 9 wins are by 7 KO/TKO 1 submissions and 1 decision. He is on a 9-fight win streak. Has 6 1st round finishes. He was the Austrian State Kickboxing Champ. His last fight was the 1st time in his career he went the distance. He has great cardio and striking, but comfortable if the fight goes to the ground.

This is an exciting way to start the prelims. I see this fight being mostly a standup contest. Justin needs to utilize his Jiu jitsu and take this fight to the ground and avoid his opponents kickboxing skills. Aleksandar needs to keep the fight standing as much as we can. When the dust settles I see the fight going the distance and Aleksandar getting the win.

Nad Narimani 10-2 vs Khalid Taha 12-1

Nad has 2 KO/TKO 5 submissions and 3 decision wins. He is on a 3-fight win streak. This is his UFC Debut. He likes to go to the ground and look to take the back and get the rear naked choke in. His game is mostly wrestling and Jiu jitsu, but he also has some boxing abilities.

Khalid has 7 KO/TKO 3 submissions and 2 decisions. He is fighting in his home country, so he has a little advantage with the fans. This too is his UFC Debut. He has very explosive takedowns and has knockout power. He was ranked #1 in Germany and the Middle East at 135 pounds. He wrestled in high school, so he is comfortable with taking the fight to the ground.

Great matchup between a striker and grappler. I see Nad with the win over the native German.

Emil Meek 9-3-1 vs Bartosz Fabinski 13-2

Emil has 7 KO/TKO 1 submission and 1 decision. He is 1-1 in the UFC. He does have a notable win against the controversial leg lock specialist Rousimar Palhares with a 45 second KO. He has won 4 of his last 5 fights. Would prefer to keep the fight standing and utilize his power. He has 5 1st round finishes.

Bartosz has 8 KO/TKO and 5 decisions. He is on a 6-fight win streak. He has notable wins over Hector Urbina and Garreth McLellan. Has devastating elbows. 2 of his KO have been due to Dr stoppage. He also has an impressive 20 second KO.

This fight will be fireworks. Both guys like to trade punches with their opponents. I expect them to do the same in this fight. I see this fight ending before the 3 rounds with a big KO by Emil.

Nick Hein 14-3 vs Damir Hadzovic 11-4

Nick has 1 KO/TKO 4 submissions and 9 decisions. He is fighting in his home country, so he has that advantage going for him. Has a notable win over Drew Dober. Has a great takedown defense. He is 88% efficient in takedown attempts on him.  Watch for him to use his Judo to take the fight to the ground. He has won over 35 National and International medals in Judo

Damir has 6 KO/TKO 3 submissions and 2 decisions. Relatively unknown. Has won 7 of last 9 fights. Has 4 1st round finishes. He holds a purple belt in Jiu jitsu. He will utilize his speed against his opponent. Look for him to throw punches and kicks to the body.

Should be an exciting fight. Damir must go to the body to take away Nick’s ability to use his Judo. On the flip side, Nick needs to get into the clinch fast to use his judo and finish the fight on the ground. Nick with the victory.

MAIN CARD FOX SPORTS 1 2PM

Marc Diakiesse 12-2 vs Nasrat Haqparast 8-2

Marc has 6 KO/TKO 1 submission and 5 decisions. He is on a 2-fight losing streak, up until then he was undefeated. He has a wrestling and boxing background. He has lots of power. He has 6 1st round finishes. Last 2 Pre UFC-fights ended in a combined 60 seconds. He holds a purple belt in Jiu jitsu.

Nasrat has 8 KO/TKO. Last fight was a decision loss. Fighting in his home country. He also has 6 1st round finishes. Has a great ground and pound game. He prefers leglock submissions but will use any submission if it present itself.

Should be a great fight. Perfect matchup for both fighters. I fore see this fight standing the whole time with a lot of big shots being thrown. I see Nasrat with the upset in this fight

Danny Roberts 15-3 vs David Zawada 16-3

Danny has 7 KO/TKO 5 submissions and 3 decisions. Has a notable loss against Mike Perry. Has won 9 of last 11 and has 5 1st round finishes. Four of his KO victories started off with knee strikes. He was 32-7 as an amateur boxer and has 5 pro fights. Well rounded fighter but prefers standing.

David has 11 KO/TKO 3 submissions and 2 decisions. Fighting in his home country and riding a 5-fight win streak. This is his UFC Debut. He has 9 1st round finishes. Prefers the triangle choke. Looking to make a name for himself in his home country in his UFC Debut.

Another great evenly matched fight. I see this fight going the distance and Danny getting the win.

Marcin Tybura 16-4 vs Stefan Struve 28-10

Marcin has 7 KO/TKO 6 submissions and 3 decisions. He is 3-2 in his last 5 fights. Has a notable win over Veteran Andrei Arlovski but losses against Derrick Lewis and Fabricio Werdum. He is a ground and pound specialist. Has 9 1st round finishes. He has a brown belt in Jiu jitsu. Likes to take the fight to the ground and look for a rear naked choke.

Stefan has 8 KO/TKO 17 decisions and 2 draws. Been in the UFC since 2009. Has fought all the big names in the heavyweight division, has wins over former champ Stipe Miocic, Antonio Nogueira, and Antonio Silva. He is on a 2-fight losing streak. He will utilize his kickboxing skills to keep the fight standing. He is also the tallest fighter in UFC history at 7’0” tall and has an 84” reach that he will use to his advantage.

Great fight with 2 amazing fighters. I see a lot of clinch work being done. Stefan needs to use his reach to his advantage. Marcin needs to take the fight to the ground to eliminate that 84” reach and work his Jiu jitsu. In the end I see Marcin defeating the UFC Vet.

Abu Azaitar 13-1 vs Vitor Miranda 12-6

Abu has 7 KO/TKO 1 submission and 5 decision wins. This is his UFC Debut. Very technical power puncher. 7-0-1 in his last 8 fights. 7 1st round finishes. Has a Muay Thai background. Does like to go to the ground for some ground and pound.

Vitor has 9 KO/TKO 2 submissions and 1 decision. He has won 8 of his last 11 fights but is on a 2-fight losing streak. He is a very defensive fighter and looks to counterpunch when he can. Heavy kickboxing background. Was 23-8 as a Pro. Holds a black belt in Muay Thai and a brown belt in Jiu jitsu.

Should be a great fight. Very well matched and skill sets and similar. I see this fight going the distance with Vitor pulling off the win

Co-Main Event

Glover Teixeira 27-6 vs Corey Anderson 10-4

Glover has 17 KO/TKO 6 submissions and 4 decisions. Former UFC title contender and current #3 in the world. He has notable wins over Rashad Evans, Ovince St Preux, Ryan Bader and Rampage Jackson. Has won 5 of the last 7 fights and finished 13 of the last 15 fights. He has heavy heavy hands. He holds a black belt in Jiu jitsu. He has bonuses for Performance of the night, Knockout of the night, Submission of the night and Fight of the night which he has done twice.

Corey has 4 KO/TKO and 6 submissions. He has notable wins over Patrick Cummins and Fabio Maldonado. Won TUF Season 19 for team Frankie Edgar. Has won 5 of last 8 fights. Has 3 1st round finishes. He is a 2 time Wrestling All American in college. He also has a purple belt in Jiu jitsu.

Should be an exciting fight between a long time veteran and a up and coming fighter. Glover needs to control the pace of the fight and keep Corey slowed down and at a distance. Look for Glover to back Corey up to the cage and unload those heavy hands he has.

Corey needs to push the pace and at work Glover. He needs to stick and move if he stays standing. If the fight goes to the ground, he will need to settle into positions before he tries and submission on the black belt. Will be a great fight. I see the old wily vet Glover with a victory.

Main Event

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua 25-10 vs Anthony Smith 29-13

Shogun has an impressive 20 KO/TKO 1 submission and 4 decision wins. He has been fighting since 2002 for various organizations including Pride where he developed his reputation as a heavy hitter. Has wins over Rampage Jackson, Allistair Overeem, Chuck Liddell, Lyoto Machida, and Forest Griffin just to name a few. He is 3-2 in his last 5 fights but has a 3-fight win streak. Has 4 Fight of the night bonuses, and 3 Knock out of the night bonuses. Has a background in Muay Thai and Jiu jitsu. He is a former UFC Light Heavyweight Champ as well as the 2005 Pride Grande Prix Title holder.

Anthony has 15KO/TKO 11 submissions and 2 decisions. 4-1 in last 5 fights. His last win was a 1st round KO over former champ Rashad Evans. He also has a victory over Hector Lombard. He is 7-1 in the UFC. He has 16 1st round finishes. 4 of his submission wins come by triangle choke. He has a Fight of the night bonus against Thiago Santos from earlier this year.

Shogun is bringing a lot of experience to this fight. Anthony has never fought someone with his background and resume. Anthony must push the pace in this fight. Shogun will use his experience and control the tempo in the fight. Look for him to push the fight towards the cage and work some clinch work and wear his opponent down. I see the Vet Shogun with another victory.

DraftKings Optimal Lineups

Here are my Cash and GPP lineups: