The big game is here! It’s a historic one at that as it’s the first time that a team is actually playing at home for the Super Bowl in the more than 50-year history of the game. It’s also going to be the fifth meeting between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady with the series tied at two games apiece. Brady has already won six titles, all in New England, and is now trying to prove he can win one without Bill Belichick as his coach not to mention he’s in his 10th championship game, meaning half of the seasons he’s playing the NFL he’s played in the final game of the season. Meanwhile, Mahomes and the Chiefs are trying to be the first back-to-back winners since Brady and the Patriots in 2003-04 and it just so happens that the coach that Brady and the Patriots beat to achieve that feat is now on the opposing sideline trying to accomplish that feat in Andy Reid.
Let’s go ahead and break down the game based on the stats you’ve become accustomed to this season, shall we?
These two teams met earlier this year and when they did, Tyreke Hill put on an absolute show with more than 200 yards receiving in the first quarter as the Chiefs held on late for a 27-24 win. Since then though, Tampa Bay has been a far better team going up four spots in points per game as they ranked sixth in Week 12 and now they rank second, actually ranking higher than the Chiefs. Defensively though, while the Bucs are still a very good unit and top-10 in most categories, they have slipped in some like DVOA where they previously ranked second the last time they played Kansas City and now they rank fifth and they’ve allowed 20 more yards a game, including the playoffs. Kansas City has remained one of the top offenses in the league though they did noticeably drop by three points scored per game and now rank fifth in the league rather than first. The offenses should be pretty evenly matched, though the run game for the Buccaneers has really picked up with Leonard Fournette and the Chiefs aren’t exactly the best rush defense in the league, unlike Tampa Bay. The key will be which defense can successfully stop the opposing passing game and while statistically the Chiefs are in the top-14 in DVOA against every position, they are the worst team in the red zone at stopping opponents from scoring and the second-worst against the rush. Tampa was previously exploited by Hill as mentioned above and Travis Kelce has a nice match-up facing the 25th ranked defense in DVOA against the tight end. One key to Tampa prevailing though will be the absence of Eric Fisher who injured his Achilles in the AFC title game and whether or not the Buccaneers pass rush can take advantage with three of their players having over eight sacks each.