There are just a few weeks left in the regular season for the NFL and likely just two weeks left in fantasy football. This week adds another interesting quirk in that there are Saturday games for the first time on the schedule and so paying attention to when each team plays becomes even more important so you aren’t stuck with an injured or inactive player in your lineups.
Make sure to keep up-to-date with all of the latest in Covid-19 news ahead of lineup locks with the Fantasy Alarm Live Covid Blog.
Going forward we have added several stats to each match-up table for a total of 33 stat categories that will highlight some key differences between the teams and where we can find the mismatches to take advantage of. All of the same stats are there, though in a slightly different spot, but there are now nine more added on, most of which are under the Advanced Stats section. There will also be a smattering of extra interesting stats for the match-ups.
Click here to see a key for what the stat categories mean, including the newly added ones. The color-coding in each matchup table is geared toward an offensive player’s perspective. So the more green you see, the better that matchup is for an offensive player, and vice versa the more red you see, the worse for an offensive player that matchup is that week.
Def vs. Pos categories are based on ½ PPR scoring formats
Match-Up Breakdowns
Los Angeles (4-9) at Las Vegas (7-6)
The Raiders defense has been terrible lately, allowing 37.5 PPG since Week 11 and it resulted in them firing their Defensive Coordinator this week.
With Austin Ekeler back in the backfield, it’s been good news for the Chargers rushing attack and he’s posted 23 or more points in two of his three games and now faces the Raiders who are giving up the third-most points to opposing RBs this year and have the worst DVOA against the run..
Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has a passer rating over 117 on deep passes (more than 20 air yards) this year and the Chargers defense has been one of the worst units against deep passes this year giving up 766 yards.
This could be a pretty high-scoring affair as both defenses allow more than 27 points per game for the season and the Raiders are posting nearly 27 points per game, their highest offensive total since their Super Bowl appearance.
Buffalo (10-3) at Denver (5-8)
Noah Fant is 10th in the NFL among TEs in targets this season and the Bills have given up 75 receptions to the position which is tied for the most in the league and are allowing the seventh-most points to the position per game as well.
Denver has allowed just 16 passing touchdowns which is tied for second-fewest in the NFL so far but Josh Allen is currently 5-0 this year against current top-10 pass defenses.
It’s been 30 years since the Bills have averaged this many points per game (27.6) on offense and Denver’s defense is allowing 26.7 PPG to this point, and now have their top-four corner backs out for this game.
It could be a sneaky good match-up for either Devin Singletary or Zach Moss as the Broncos rush defense hasn’t been great allowing sixth-most yards per game rushing (131) and ranking 25th in rush DVOA (-0.6%)
Carolina (4-9) at Green Bay (10-3)
Carolina comes in on a seven-game losing streak and the Packers are 13-2 at home since 2019, the best record in the NFL.
This match-up is about who can do what they’re good at best, the Packers are allowing the fourth-most points to opposing running backs and Mike Davis is still in play a bit for the Panthers backfield, but the Panthers give up nearly 251 yards a game passing and rank 27th in Pass DVOA.
A bit of a flyer play this week could be Curtis Samuel as the Packers have given up three or more offensive touchdowns to their opponents in three of the last four games and Samuel has five scores in the last seven games.
San Francisco (5-8) at Dallas (4-9)
Dallas’ offense has been a shell of itself with Andy Dalton under center as they are averaging 17.8 PPG compared to 32.6 PPG with Dak Prescott .They are also averaging the 18th-most rushing yards per game which would be the first time since 2013 that they’d finish outside the top-10 in the league in rushing.
Brandon Aiyuk has averaged 99 yards a game with three touchdowns in the last five games and Dallas ranks 26th and 32nd against number one and two receivers based on DVOA.
An interesting play could be CeeDee Lamb as SF is 29th in DVOA against receivers other than the top-two and Dalton has a connection with the rookie wideout.
With all of the injuries to the Niners defense, one thing to watch for could be the pace at which Dallas plays on offense as they are the fastest offense between plays and San Fran hasn’t faced that same pace on defense (27.21 seconds per play)
Seattle (9-4) at Washington (6-7)
Pete Carroll is 6-2 against Ron Rivera (including playoffs) in his career and Russell Wilson has rushed for 65 or more yards in each of the previous three career games against Washington.
Washington is a completely different team without Alex Smith under center in terms of yards per game, points per game, turnovers per game, and big plays per game all being worse with either Dwayne Haskins or Kyle Allen at quarterback.
Interestingly while the WFT is one of the best passing defenses in the league, they are the worst against number-one wideouts and so DK Metcalf may be in line for another big day as the top target for Wilson and red zone threat.
Terry McLaurin has proven to be match-up and quarterback proof at this point and has nearly the same career stats as Metcalf, though less touchdowns, and with Seattle ranking 22nd against the top wideout of opponents based on DVOA.
Chicago (6-7) at Minnesota (6-7)
The Bears defense is known to be tough and are indeed allowing the third-fewest points to WRs which could make for tough sledding for Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. However, the Vikings are the only team in the NFL to not allow a 100-yard receiver since Week 7 (their bye week).
The Bears offense has been far better with Mitch Trubisky at the helm putting up more than 24 points in five of the six starts while Nick Foles couldn’t manage hitting 24 points even once in his seven starts.
The two NFC North teams move the ball in two different ways as well as Minnesota ranks fifth in the league in percentage of rushing plays called while the Bears rank second in percent of passing plays called.
Despite the Vikings not allowing a 100-yard receiver since Week 7, they still rank 28th against number-one WRs and have given up the most points to the position for fantasy which could mean good things for Allen Robinson .
New England (6-7) at Miami (8-5)
Get ready for what could be the lowest-scoring game of the week as both of these offenses have struggled off and on this season.
The Dolphins have held opponents under 21 points nine times so far this year which is the most in the NFL this season.
The Patriots are averaging just 21.3 points per game which is the worst in a single season under Belichick and they have a .450 winning percentage in MIA under Belichick.
While Tua Tagovailoa has a 9:1 TD:INT ratio this year, rookie quarterbacks are 7-21 against Belichick as a head coach and Herbert was flustered a couple of weeks ago to the tune of a 45-0 blowout.
Cam Newton has only thrown for four touchdowns this year to his receivers and New England has only allowed one receiving touchdown to tight ends all season putting pressure on Mike Gesicki .
Jacksonville (1-12) at Baltimore (8-5)
Get ready for a huge rushing week from the Ravens. The Jaguars have allowed 200-plus rushing yards seven times since 2019 and Baltimore have 13 such games in that span.
Gus Edwards , J.K. Dobbins, and Lamar Jackson combine for the best rushing attack in the league and since 2018, Baltimore is 6-0 averaging nearly 33 points a game against bottom-three rush defenses.
The teams offenses move the ball completely in opposite ways as Jacksonville ranks 32nd in rushing plays called and first in passing plays called while Baltimore is the polar opposite in both categories.
One of the lone bright spots for the Jaguars is that they are solid in red zone defense and the Ravens are only so-so in red zone offense.
Tampa Bay (8-5) at Atlanta (4-9)
Did anyone know that Atlanta has allowed fewer than 30 points in nine straight games?
Tampa is averaging 28.5 PPG which is their second-most in franchise history
Those looking at the Falcons giving up the third-most points to wideouts this year, might want to take note that Scotty Miller and Rob Gronkowski are the only two Buccaneers to have 100-plus yard receiving games since Week 5 so Brady is spreading things around quite a bit even while posting two-plus touchdowns in seven of his last eight games.
Don’t expect a lot of rushing yards to be put up in this match-up as key members of both backfields are out and both defenses are in the top-four of Rush DVOA and top-five in fewest points allowed to the position for fantasy.
Detroit (5-8) at Tennessee (9-4)
Right off the bat, we have an interesting question about Derrick Henry and what he’ll do this week. Detroit has been terrible against the rush this year allowing the most fantasy points and fourth-most yards per game to the position. Henry has averaged 113.7 rushing yards a game in November and December since 2018, however he’s posted 85 or fewer yards in 5-of-7 home games this year and topped 100-plus yards in every road game.
Both teams have struggled against the pass this year as the Lions have allowed the third-most receiving yards and have allowed a 100-yard receiver in three of their last four games while the Titans are allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position with Marvin Jones coming in having posted 10-plus points in six of his last eight games, though Matthew Stafford may not be playing on Sunday.
T.J. Hockenson is one of three TEs with over 50 receptions and six touchdowns (Travis Kelce and Darren Waller being the others) and now gets the Titans defense that ranks dead last in DVOA against tight ends.
Houston (4-9) at Indianapolis (9-4)
These teams met a few weeks ago but that was before Will Fuller was suspended and Kenny Stills was released and since then some key Colts’ offensive weapons have righted the ship in Jonathan Taylor and T.Y. Hilton .
Taylor has been very good of late and posted 22.5 FP in their Week 13 match-up and since Week 12, Hilton has averaged 92.3 yards per game with four touchdowns.
The Colts have averaged 30.8 points per game since Week 6 which is the second-most in the NFL while the Texans are averaging 22.7 for the full season and it’s been tough sailing of late.
Indianapolis is still top-10 in most defensive categories and now facing an underpowered Texans offense that is only stayed in games because of Deshaun Watson ’s 109.4 passer rating which is the highest by a quarterback on a team with a losing record.
Philadelphia (4-8-1) at Arizona (7-6)
Hurts looked very good against the Saints last week and is the first QB to have 100 yards rushing and at least a passing touchdown in their debut start and now gets the Cardinals who are only middle-of-the-road against rushing and have given up nearly 120 yards rushing a game.
The Eagles have the second-fewest interceptions this year at just four to this point.
This might also be a game with a lot of plays run as both teams are in the top-eight of pace with the Cardinals ranking second.
Philadelphia ranks third in DVOA vs. number-one wideouts so DeAndre Hopkins could be in line for another big game on Sunday.
New York (0-13) at Los Angeles (9-4)
The Jets have allowed 30 or more points in each of their eight non-divisional games this year which is an NFL record.
The Rams have allowed fewer than 20 points in seven games this season, tied for the most in the NFL, and the Jets have scored fewer than 20 points in nine games this year which is the most in the NFL.
This game has the largest spread on the board and one of the lowest over/unders indicating they don’t expect the Jets to score that many points just like the outcome from last Sunday when the Jets refused to try and score late in the game.
Kansas City (12-1) at New Orleans (10-3)
The Chiefs have won 10-straight road games which is a franchise record and Patrick Mahomes is 8-0 against top-five scoring defenses in his career.
The Saints have defeated one team with a .500 or better record this year, Tampa Bay twice.
Kansas City has been poor against the run but right now Alvin Kamara isn’t his normal self as he’s posted less than 100 yards from scrimmage in six straight games, a career-long streak, and his targets only recently came back last week when the Saints had to pass to catch-up to the Eagles.
Not only are these two high-powered offenses but the game is indoor and on a fast surface which could help even more and then add in the fact that neither team really stops the opponent inside the red zone from scoring touchdowns this year either and it’s likely to be a shootout.
Cleveland (9-4) at New York (5-8)
For as much flack as Baker Mayfield is taking this year, and partially warranted, he is 7-1 against all non-AFC-North opponents this year.
New York has scored 20 points or less in seven games this year including the last three straight. While the Giants have scored fewer points of late, it’s their defense that is far better at keeping points off the board as they average 22.4 points allowed per game this year.
Cleveland is the third-best rushing offense in the league to this point but the Giants are the seventh-best in keeping rushing yards to a minimum so whoever is able to win that battle is the likely winner on Sunday.
If you haven’t caught on by now, Evan Engram is the third-most targeted TE in the league and the Browns have allowed the second-most points per game to the position in fantasy this year.
If the Giants keep the turnovers to a minimum they stand a better chance at winning. They have three total turnovers in their five combined wins and 17 turnovers in their eight losses.
Pittsburgh (11-2) at Cincinnati (2-10-1)
This game clearly had more juice when Joe Burrow was still quarterbacking Cincinnati and the Steelers were still rolling offensively, but that’s a thing of the past as Pittsburgh has managed just 17.0 PPG in the last three games while rushing it for just 45.3 yards per game.
Speaking of rushing, if the opponent rushes the ball more than 35-percent of the time against the Bengals, they are giving up 152 yards per game on the ground. If the opponent rushes less than 35-percent of the time in the game, Cincinnati is giving up just 64 yards per game and Pittsburgh has been rushing it 33.4-percent of the time since Week 6.
While the Bengals' pass defense hasn’t been great, the Steelers might be their own worst enemy when it comes to drops as they lead the league in that category at 35 with Diontae Johnson personally accounting for 12 himself.
Eric Ebron has posted six double-digit scoring weeks in the last eight games in PPR formats and Cincinnati hasn’t been good against TEs giving up the second-most points to the position this season.