We’re here. It’s almost amazing to think that there were 10 weeks of the regular season missed due to Covid and yet a full season is what we still got and one that’s ending on-time as scheduled.

Though the name doesn’t sound like it, this is the race for all the marbles, well a really big trophy, but the idiom still works. Four drivers advanced from the Martinsville race with a shot for the title and to be clear, the champion doesn’t have to win the race to win the title, they simply have to finish ahead of the other three, though in the last nine years, the champion has had to win the Championship race to take the title. This will be the first time that Phoenix Raceway, formerly ISM Raceway and Phoenix International Raceway, is holding the Championship race as it’s typically been held at Homestead-Miami with the penultimate race being at Phoenix.

It feels like a full year has passed since they last raced at Phoenix so let’s do a deeper dive into the track than we normally do shall we. Phoenix is a 1-mile nearly flat track that really only has banking in one set of corners at 12 degrees and it has an interesting shape to it. You’re going to hear the phrase “dogleg” quite a lot this week, and no it’s not people gearing up for the Masters or talking about the Houston Open, they are talking about the odd pseudo-turn just after the start finish line that allows for crazy restarts and a major fanning-out effect as drivers dive below the white line to cut the corner on the dogleg, just like a golfer looking to cut yardage on a hole. That quirk in the track can help with passing and in three of the last five races here, double-digit drivers have moved up at least six spots a race and most of the time four drivers have hit the double-digit position differential mark.

Strategy Notes: As you can see in the above graphs, from FRCS.pro, the manufacturers are pretty evenly split here in the last 10 races though Chevy has been shut out of victory lane in the last five races as Toyota has won thrice and Ford twice. In all but one of the last five races one driver has led at least 100 laps with another leading at least 73 laps in three of those four. The race this February here saw a mostly-split laps led column with four drivers leading at least 60 laps each and no one topping 93. Given what’s on the line on Sunday, there’s a decent shot that the laps led wind up mostly split once more, but listen throughout the week for a driver I think has a shot to dominate the race.

Check my Twitter feed, @theselzman, for the schedule for this week’s content and I’m always available in Chat or on Twitter to answer questions.

Core Drivers By Tier

Tier 1 - Kevin Harvick

  • Harvick should be mighty frustrated with not making the Championship Four at his best track.

  • The four Championship drivers have a combined four top-fives in the last four races here and Harvick has three by himself with the second-best average finish in the field.

  • He finished P2 here in February and led 67 laps, this time he has PD upside going for him, but he is priced like it.

Tier 2 - Jimmie Johnson

  • Johnson has the third-best PD mark in the last four races at 7.2 with four top-15s.

  • His last Cup series race in the now-iconic 48-car is Sunday and starting P26 he’ll want to put on a show.

  • He started P21 and finished P12 here in February and in the playoffs his Green Flag Speed has been P17 or better seven times.

Tier 3 - Ty Dillon

  • Dillon was on this list back in February for his amazing PD upside with six top-20s in seven races here and an 8.2 PD mark in the last four.

  • He’s starting P22 on Sunday and started P25 here in February before finishing P15, a similar result is certainly possible Sunday.

  • His wife and he also just welcomed a baby son into the world so he’s got that new dad mojo going and we’ve seen what that did for his older brother as well as some baseball players this year as well.

Contrarian Play - Aric Almirola / Clint Bowyer

  • Both of these SHR drivers are likely to get overlook a bit since they are starting higher up in the field.

  • Almirola has posted three top-10s in the last four races here with a 9.5 average finish while Bowyer has three top-15s and finished P5 here in February.

  • This is Bowyer’s last race as well which gives a nice narrative and Almirola started P6 in February and finished P8 but posted a 96.5 top-15 rate and both haven’t been the hottest drivers recently which should keep them as lower played options.

Fade - Alex Bowman

  • At his home track we’re going to fade him? Yep we’re doing that.

  • He’s posted just one top-20 in the last four races here and typically goes backward nearly 18 spots a race.

  • Bowman started P8 and finished P14 in February but still only brought in 25.5 DK points at 9.3K and now he’s starting P6. His value at his price this weekend has averaged 0.7x on DK in the last five races.

Last Four Races at Phoenix

Tier 1

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Brad KeselowskiPenske410.810.710.50.31111
Kevin HarvickSHR44.56.25.3-0.83100
Martin Truex JrJGR49.58.313.5-41110
Chase ElliottHendrick42.812.520.8-180110
Denny HamlinJGR44.810.39.8-52011
Joey LoganoPenske4912.314.3-5.31200
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Brad Keselowski429.319.817.276.3%29.3120.1312.8
Kevin Harvick435.024.821.194.0%32.8115.9313.0
Martin Truex Jr44.823.012.791.0%32.398.8304.5
Chase Elliott427.327.520.669.2%31.8101.7275.5
Denny Hamlin437.330.524.676.5%20.3105.1313.0
Joey Logano438.313.316.276.0%30.895.6258.8

Tier 2

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Kyle BuschJGR45.33.71.83.54000
Ryan BlaneyPenske4513.219.3-14.32000
Jimmie JohnsonHendrick419.513.312.37.20130
Kurt BuschGanassi411.312.314-2.70210
Alex BowmanHendrick48.317.425.5-17.20010
William ByronHendrick415.313.9150.30201
Erik JonesJGR49.316.820.3-110101
Clint BowyerSHR418.313.614.83.51110
Aric AlmirolaSHR412.310.59.52.82100
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Kyle Busch490.845.345.399.5%39.8112.5313.0
Ryan Blaney424.311.511.873.0%23.092.6231.5
Jimmie Johnson41.00.00.360.6%32.374.6313.0
Kurt Busch414.013.810.470.2%30.891.1303.0
Alex Bowman40.01.50.844.9%26.569.3275.5
William Byron40.02.81.464.0%30.078.4312.3
Erik Jones40.00.00.060.3%25.376.6309.8
Clint Bowyer40.04.82.473.6%37.071.1268.3
Aric Almirola46.54.84.086.5%44.598.4312.5

Tier 3

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Matt DiBenedettoWood Bros.419.317.618.80.50020
Tyler ReddickRCR12913.733-40000
Christopher BellLFR11519.924-90000
Cole CusterSHR11614.1970100
Austin DillonRCR421.519.922.3-0.80100
Chris BuescherRoush421.821.316.850004
Ryan NewmanRoush32013.513.76.30021
Matt KensethGanassi11717.47100100
Bubba WallacePetty425.824.3196.80101
Ricky Stenhouse JrJTG416.319.121.8-5.50011
Ty DillonGermain425.521.417.38.20022
Michael McDowellFront Row423.327.424.5-1.20002
Ryan PreeceJTG32225.226-40001
John H. NemechekFront Row22622.92600000
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Matt DiBenedetto40.01.50.853.0%29.578.6312
Tyler Reddick10.039.019.565.5%32.055.3264
Christopher Bell10.02.01.07.9%14.059.9316
Cole Custer10.00.00.061.7%48.084.1316
Austin Dillon40.03.81.937.7%13.560.0265
Chris Buescher40.30.30.23.8%4.360.9312
Ryan Newman30.05.02.567.5%28.771.7312
Matt Kenseth10.00.00.019.9%17.075.0312
Bubba Wallace40.00.50.36.0%5.556.0312
Ricky Stenhouse Jr40.00.00.028.9%15.865.9300
Ty Dillon40.00.30.17.4%7.365.0312
Michael McDowell40.00.50.30.7%0.864.4273
Ryan Preece30.00.00.02.1%2.349.6284
John H. Nemechek20.00.00.00.0%3.545.6623

Tier 4

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Daniel SuarezGaunt42524.523.81.20010
Corey LajoieGo Fas327.72829.3-1.60000
Garrett SmithleyTBR235.534.8332.50000
JJ YeleyRick Ware335.731.6314.70000
Joey GasePWR237.53533.540000
Josh BilickiSpire         
Timmy HillMBM237.53838.5-1    
Brennan PoolePremium13231.93110000
Quin HouffStarCom234.533.4322.50000
James DavisonRick Ware        
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Daniel Suarez40.04.32.111.8%8.053.8259
Corey Lajoie30.00.70.31.0%1.339.5307
Garrett Smithley20.05.02.50.0%0.026.4243
JJ Yeley30.00.30.20.2%0.037.4237
Joey Gase20.00.00.00.0%0.028.4242
Josh Bilicki   0.0    
Timmy Hill2  0.0    
Brennan Poole10.00.00.00.3%0.038.2292
Quin Houff20.07.03.50.0%0.030.5255
James Davison   0.0   

Top-20 Drivers Over Last Eight Phoenix Races

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Kyle Busch884.72.65.47100
Kevin Harvick87.96.54.63.36200
Denny Hamlin86.49.211.9-5.53211
Chase Elliott83.5913.6-10.12220
Martin Truex Jr812.510.414.1-1.63120
Brad Keselowski8131011.51.52132
Joey Logano86.911.215-8.12211
Aric Almirola818.515.411.66.92301
Clint Bowyer819.914.914.45.51230
Kurt Busch813.314.114.6-1.31310
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Ryan Blaney85.412.717.6-12.22102
Erik Jones79.313.414.6-5.31301
Jimmie Johnson817.31518.6-1.30240
Matt Kenseth411.512.116.5-51100
Ryan Newman718.313.712.16.21042
William Byron514.413.714.400211
Alex Bowman66.314.620.2-13.90120
Ricky Stenhouse Jr820.420.318.12.31111
Cole Custer11614.1970100
Daniel Suarez721.721.218.33.40211
  LLFLDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts/ Race/RaceRating
Kyle Busch875.638.538.2314.3123
Kevin Harvick822.322.516.8314.3111.1
Denny Hamlin847.424.524.1309.6104.5
Chase Elliott831.128.822.2295.5105.8
Martin Truex Jr82.817.89.6301.895.1
Brad Keselowski816.117.112.6314.197
Joey Logano836.611.114.7286.193.8
Aric Almirola83.32.52.1313.880.5
Clint Bowyer80.06.03.0291.682.5
Kurt Busch87.98.36.1309.083.3
  LLFLDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts/ Race/RaceRating
Ryan Blaney813.56.16.4273.488
Erik Jones71.65.63.2311.084.3
Jimmie Johnson82.18.04.5290.382.5
Matt Kenseth429.319.016.8284.594.4
Ryan Newman74.110.36.2313.783.3
William Byron53.03.42.5312.280
Alex Bowman632.310.813.5289.782.2
Ricky Stenhouse Jr80.01.91.0307.567.5
Cole Custer10.00.00.0316.079.3
Daniel Suarez70.02.41.2281.964.4

Top-20 Drivers At Similar Races

(New Hampshire, Phoenix, Richmond)

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Kyle Busch166.96.95.81.110500
Kevin Harvick1667.46.9-0.911310
Martin Truex Jr166.55.77.6-1.110221
Denny Hamlin166.99.49.4-2.59042
Joey Logano1611.610.39.81.86531
Brad Keselowski16118.110.10.95532
Chase Elliott168.310.712-3.76340
Aric Almirola1615.412.611.83.64513
Clint Bowyer1615.511.813.91.62722
Erik Jones1611.613.713.3-1.73432
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Kurt Busch168.611.315.2-6.61444
Jimmie Johnson1618.115.415.32.80580
Ryan Newman1519.714.214.15.61452
Ryan Blaney168.913.516.9-8.03207
Matt Kenseth815.414.617.8-2.42111
William Byron1314.81515.4-0.60262
Austin Dillon1619.317.417.51.81332
Daniel Suarez1622.819.617.94.90514
Alex Bowman1311.516.618.1-6.60162
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1618.619.219.9-1.30145
  LedFast LapsDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts. / Race/RaceRating
Kyle Busch1681.341.341.0324.9116.7
Kevin Harvick1622.328.419.8333.3110.4
Martin Truex Jr1662.129.430.2340.6113.6
Denny Hamlin1639.425.122.4340.4102.5
Joey Logano1621.410.110.4329.196.9
Brad Keselowski1644.622.222.3342.3104.3
Chase Elliott1613.213.810.2332.797.1
Aric Almirola165.28.45.5342.387.7
Clint Bowyer162.88.44.9328.688.9
Erik Jones160.97.33.9341.883.5
  LedFast LapsDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts. / Race/RaceRating
Kurt Busch1616.811.710.1330.488.3
Jimmie Johnson160.33.31.7331.479.3
Ryan Newman151.85.73.3341.978.2
Ryan Blaney167.15.74.6321.982.5
Matt Kenseth818.917.013.2310.086.5
William Byron131.23.52.1342.977.1
Austin Dillon163.67.84.8328.472
Daniel Suarez160.03.61.8328.666.4
Alex Bowman130.12.31.2331.872.9
Ricky Stenhouse Jr160.87.43.9328.768.4

Momentum

This shows the last five races of the season and the driver’s stats so we can see who is coming in hot and who’s coming in cold.

Drivers

Tier 1

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Brad Keselowski54.48.110-5.621024.4137.6100.9
Kevin Harvick5414.713.2-9.21013231915.388.2
Martin Truex Jr54.68.312.6-8120037.623.621.2104.0
Chase Elliott557.310-5210170.432.433.8116.0
Denny Hamlin5414.110.2-6.2113025.28.810.786.4
Joey Logano55.47.38.4-3310022.28.49.8111.2

Tier 2

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Kyle Busch510.611.314.4-3.8210020.414.612.490.7
Ryan Blaney513.498.64.831001623.215.6108.0
Jimmie Johnson522.818.827.8-500100.273.667.3
Kurt Busch55.613.617.2-11.6210053.43.092.1
Alex Bowman54.610.37.2-2.622109.2117.898.0
William Byron513.611.713.20.412106.264.692.1
Erik Jones515.414.111.63.820113.263.887.7
Clint Bowyer513.813.518.8-5020119.611.810.889.8
Aric Almirola514.419.519.2-4.8011123.22.173.2

Tier 3

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Matt DiBenedetto515.414.314.60.802104.811.777.4
Tyler Reddick519.417.516.62.801200.44.42.370.8
Christopher Bell52118.718.22.811102.27.84.574.2
Cole Custer51816.816.21.80130021.080.4
Austin Dillon512.217.615.2-3003101.40.773.6
Chris Buescher52124.823.8-2.8010131.81.757.7
Ryan Newman521.621192.610020.221.159.3
Matt Kenseth527.225.928.6-1.4001101.40.752.6
Bubba Wallace525.421.924.41000121.41.262.6
Ricky Stenhouse Jr525.42420.64.8001301.60.858.3
Ty Dillon524.421.118.06.4100111.20.964.4
Michael McDowell525.625.828.2-2.600010.231.647.1
Ryan Preece522.619.1184.601121.61.41.170.2
John H. Nemechek524.222.821.82.4010103.21.660.3

Tier 4

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Daniel Suarez530.226.9282.2000000.80.450.8
Corey Lajoie528.825.425.63.200001.41.41.150.2
Garrett Smithley23734.5352000000.50.332.8
JJ Yeley434.534.4340.5000000.50.333.2
Joey Gase43834.131.36.70001010.533.6
Josh Bilicki434.53332.32.2000001.50.836.0
Timmy Hill534.230.929.2500100.20.80.536.6
Brennan Poole53028.927.82.201000.21.20.743.1
Quin Houff531.631.9283.6001000.40.237.4
James Davison436.333.431.84.5000000.80.433.9

Teams

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LapsFast
Team#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20LedLaps
Chip Ganassi Racing1016.419.822.9-6.521115048
Front Row Motorsports1024.924.325.0-0.10102262
Hendrick Motorsports2011.512.014.6-3.1553117201128
Joe Gibbs Racing208.712.012.2-3.6644117281060
JTG Daugherty Racing1024.021.619.34.701251630
Richard Childress Racing1015.817.615.9-0.10151458
Roush Fenway Racing1021.322.921.4-0.111033238
Stewart-Haas Racing2012.616.116.9-4.31455892720
Team Penske157.78.19.0-1.38302639669

Finishing Spot Ranges By Starting Spot Ranges

StartFinish Ranges
Range1-56-1011-1516-2020+
1-593125
6-1064415
11-1535318
16-2025652
21-2501568
26-30011414
31-35010118
36-40000012
Total2020202072

Price Changes

These tables show the difference in pricing for each driver from the first race here in March to the race this weekend. A positive in the difference column means they are more expensive this time while a negative shows they are cheaper.

DraftKings Price Changes FanDuel Price Changes
 Nov.Feb. Starting Nov.Feb. 
Drivers$$Diff.SpotDrivers$$Diff.
Chase Elliott$10,600$9,600$1,0001Chase Elliott$12,500$11,000$1,500
Joey Logano$10,000$10,700-$7002Joey Logano$13,300$11,200$2,100
Brad Keselowski$10,800$10,400$4003Brad Keselowski$13,500$11,500$2,000
Denny Hamlin$10,300$10,200$1004Denny Hamlin$13,000$13,000$0
Ryan Blaney$9,800$9,900-$1005Ryan Blaney$11,000$11,000$0
Alex Bowman$9,000$9,300-$3006Alex Bowman$10,000$10,500-$500
Kurt Busch$8,800$8,100$7007Kurt Busch$10,800$8,800$2,000
Kyle Busch$9,600$12,000-$2,4008Kyle Busch$12,000$14,000-$2,000
Clint Bowyer$7,900$7,900$09Clint Bowyer$9,600$8,400$1,200
Aric Almirola$7,800$7,700$10010Aric Almirola$9,800$8,100$1,700
Kevin Harvick$11,100$11,300-$20011Kevin Harvick$12,300$12,500-$200
Matt DiBenedetto$7,600$7,300$30012Matt DiBenedetto$8,700$8,000$700
 Nov.Feb. Starting Nov.Feb. 
Drivers$$Diff.SpotDrivers$$Diff.
Martin Truex Jr$11,400$11,600-$20013Martin Truex Jr$11,500$13,500-$2,000
Erik Jones$8,600$8,500$10014Erik Jones$9,000$9,200-$200
Cole Custer$6,900$6,300$60015Cole Custer$8,500$6,500$2,000
Matt Kenseth$6,700  16Matt Kenseth$7,200  
Christopher Bell$7,300$6,500$80017Christopher Bell$8,000$6,300$1,700
Austin Dillon$7,400$7,500-$10018Austin Dillon$7,000$7,600-$600
Ryan Newman$6,500  19Ryan Newman$7,800  
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$6,200$7,200-$1,00020Ricky Stenhouse Jr$6,500$7,000-$500
Tyler Reddick$8,100$6,900$1,20021Tyler Reddick$7,600$6,700$900
Ty Dillon$6,000$6,200-$20022Ty Dillon$6,000$5,500$500
Bubba Wallace$7,000$6,000$1,00023Bubba Wallace$6,400$5,000$1,400
Ryan Preece$5,800$5,400$40024Ryan Preece$5,500$5,000$500
 Nov.Feb. Starting Nov.Feb. 
Drivers$$Diff.SpotDrivers$$Diff.
William Byron$8,400$8,300$10025William Byron$10,200$9,500$700
Jimmie Johnson$9,300$9,000$30026Jimmie Johnson$10,500$10,000$500
John H. Nemechek$5,500$5,800-$30027John H. Nemechek$5,500$4,500$1,000
Corey Lajoie$5,300$5,600-$30028Corey Lajoie$4,000$3,500$500
Michael McDowell$6,300$5,500$80029Michael McDowell$5,000$4,000$1,000
Daniel Suarez$5,600$5,700-$10030Daniel Suarez$5,000$4,000$1,000
Chris Buescher$7,200$6,700$50031Chris Buescher$6,700$7,200-$500
JJ Yeley$5,100$4,900$20032JJ Yeley$3,000$2,000$1,000
Timmy Hill$4,800$5,200-$40033Timmy Hill$3,000$2,000$1,000
Quin Houff4600$5,000-$40034Quin Houff$3,000$2,000$1,000
Brennan Poole$4,700$5,300-$60035Brennan Poole$3,500$2,500$1,000
James Davison$4,500  36James Davison$3,000  
Joey Gase$5,000$5,100-$10037Joey Gase$3,000$2,000$1,000
Josh Bilicki$4,900  38Josh Bilicki$3,000  
Garrett Smithley$5,200  39Garrett Smithley$3,000 

Weekly Rankings

Race Hist, Recent Form, Track Hist, Type Hist are all ranked on average finish position over the last four races at the track, five races this season, eight races at this track, and similar races respectively. The Avg. Rating and Top-15 % columns are ranked on those categories in the last four races at this track. The L8 PD column ranks the position differential over the last eight races from best (most positive) to worst (most negative).

Tier 1

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Brad Keselowski$10,800$13,500749411446
Kevin Harvick$11,100$12,300210715122
Martin Truex Jr$11,400$11,5009929520393
Chase Elliott$10,600$12,50021428627688
Denny Hamlin$10,300$13,00066237264
Joey Logano$10,000$13,30012212185145

Tier 2

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Kyle Busch$9,600$12,000112321111
Ryan Blaney$9,800$11,0001933693281616
Jimmie Johnson$9,300$10,5008311331342014
Kurt Busch$8,800$10,80011171651271213
Alex Bowman$9,000$10,0002713383792121
William Byron$8,400$10,20014101441751015
Erik Jones$8,600$9,000208306336129
Clint Bowyer$7,900$9,600132181831010
Aric Almirola$7,800$9,8005242676257

Tier 3

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Matt DiBenedetto$7,600$8,7001713151021122423
Tyler Reddick$8,100$7,6003416221323143520
Christopher Bell$7,300$8,0002520351136132525
Cole Custer$6,900$8,5004154848312
Austin Dillon$7,400$7,0002314321224112317
Chris Buescher$7,200$6,70015271241662528
Ryan Newman$6,500$7,800102211937711
Matt Kenseth$6,700$7,20033637 211518
Bubba Wallace$7,000$6,40018282061442226
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$6,200$6,500222517725101822
Ty Dillon$6,000$6,000161851921724
Michael McDowell$6,300$5,00026352323032929
Ryan Preece$5,800$5,50028181833192727
John H. Nemechek$5,500$5,50028262152252731

Tier 4

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Daniel Suarez$5,600$5,0002433621061919
Corey Lajoie$5,300$4,00030293163473330
Garrett Smithley$5,200$3,00034432452653534
JJ Yeley$5,100$3,00031411011913033
Joey Gase$5,000$3,00036382742943336
Josh Bilicki$4,900$3,000404037 38 4040
Timmy Hill$4,800$3,00037373483583738
Brennan Poole$4,700$3,50031312532833032
Quin Houff$4,600$3,00033331971523235
James Davison$4,500$3,000403937 38 4037

DFS Value Averages

We have taken their points scored over the last two and five races on each site and averaged those out and then divided that average by their salary divided by 1,000.

Tier 1

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Brad Keselowski$10,8005.104.734.13$13,5004.994.804.32
Kevin Harvick$11,1005.985.935.38$12,3005.965.925.24
Martin Truex Jr$11,4002.493.463.96$11,5004.075.084.94
Chase Elliott$10,6002.753.024.58$12,5002.963.764.52
Denny Hamlin$10,3006.925.354.89$13,0005.135.094.71
Joey Logano$10,0007.513.543.82$13,3005.853.984.16

Tier 2

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Kyle Busch$9,6006.8910.043.71$12,0006.286.984.39
Ryan Blaney$9,8001.512.314.18$11,0003.053.914.82
Jimmie Johnson$9,3004.254.093.51$10,5006.066.004.62
Kurt Busch$8,8003.984.653.52$10,8005.895.534.75
Alex Bowman$9,0002.080.683.57$10,0005.013.855.05
William Byron$8,4004.173.823.62$10,2005.975.704.81
Erik Jones$8,6002.332.204.01$9,0005.675.545.87
Clint Bowyer$7,9005.925.144.27$9,6007.336.085.42
Aric Almirola$7,8002.955.564.19$9,8005.526.775.26

Tier 3

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Matt DiBenedetto$7,6004.113.424.14$8,7006.806.076.09
Tyler Reddick$8,1003.273.273.79$7,6004.264.266.56
Christopher Bell$7,3001.641.644.05$8,0005.515.516.09
Cole Custer$6,9006.096.093.95$8,5007.897.895.69
Austin Dillon$7,4002.163.234.39$7,0004.636.727.45
Chris Buescher$7,2004.363.883.54$6,7008.608.136.88
Ryan Newman$6,5004.856.183.79$7,8007.068.006.05
Matt Kenseth$6,700 7.093.23$7,200 9.755.97
Bubba Wallace$7,0003.644.093.56$6,4008.088.436.77
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$6,2003.953.103.79$6,5008.057.336.36
Ty Dillon$6,0006.045.084.57$6,0009.939.247.85
Michael McDowell$6,3003.172.704.40$5,0009.678.479.56
Ryan Preece$5,8003.882.413.81$5,5009.167.537.82
John H. Nemechek$5,5003.273.274.68$5,5008.398.398.40

Tier 4

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Daniel Suarez$5,6005.984.914.34$5,00011.389.718.82
Corey Lajoie$5,3002.222.034.39$4,0009.948.0510.77
Garrett Smithley$5,2003.083.082.24$3,00011.1711.1710.46
JJ Yeley$5,1004.953.502.86$3,00016.2812.0011.27
Joey Gase$5,0002.902.902.63$3,00011.2211.2210.57
Josh Bilicki$4,900  2.78$3,000  11.51
Timmy Hill$4,8001.671.673.12$3,0002.705.8610.46
Brennan Poole$4,7002.982.983.63$3,50011.3411.3410.44
Quin Houff$4,6003.703.913.20$3,0009.2711.9211.81
James Davison$4,500  2.52$3,000  9.34