There might only be a few weeks left before the fantasy football playoffs start for most leagues, but we’re really only halfway through the full NFL season at this point. If we thought we were done with the Coronavirus affecting things and major injuries popping up, think again as just this week Matthew Stafford , nine members of the Ravens defense, Kendrick Bourne , A.J. Dillon, and a few others were all put on the Covid-19/Restricted list and the Niners shut down their facility as well. You can always see the latest updates on the Coronavirus Blog here at Fantasy Alarm and see how that’s playing a role for your DFS and seasonal fantasy lineups.
With that let’s see how the games are shaping up for this week’s contests and what match-ups we can take advantage of for DFS and season-long.
As is the case each week, we’ll breakdown each match-up over more than 25 stat categories and we’ll highlight some key differences between the teams and where we can find the mismatches to take advantage of. There will also be a smattering of extra interesting stats for the match-ups.
Below is a key that defines each stat category and how they are ranked. The color-coding that shows for each matchup is geared toward looking from an offensive player’s perspective. So the more green you see, the better that matchup is for an opposing offensive player, and vice versa the more red you see, the worse for an offensive player that matchup is that week.
Def vs. Pos categories are based on ½ PPR scoring formats
Key
Offensive Rankings
Pace – How many seconds it takes a team to run a play (1-fastest, 32-slowest)
PPG – Points scored per game (1-most, 32-least)
T.O.P. – Time of Possession (1-most, 32 least)
Total Yards – Total Yards Per Game Offensively (1-most, 32 least)
RZ % - Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage (1-best, 32-worst)
Off Plays – Total Number of Offensive Plays Run Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush Att. – Total Number of Rushing Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Runs (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Rush Yds – Rushing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush YPA – Rushing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Pass Att. – Total Number of Pass Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Pass (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Pass Yds – Passing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass YPA – Passing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Defensive Rankings
DVOA – Football Outsiders Defensive Value Over Average (Negative numbers are better) (1-best, 32-worst)
Yds/G Allowed – Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Yds/P Allowed – Yards Per Play Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/G – Rushing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/Att. – Rushing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/G – Passing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/Att. – Passing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Def vs. QB – Fantasy Points Allowed Vs QB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. RB - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs RB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. WR - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs WR (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. TE - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs TE (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Bye Weeks: Cincinnati, Cleveland, Los Angeles (Rams), Philadelphia
Match-Up Breakdowns
Green Bay at San Francisco
This match-up has taken on a whole new flare this week with the major injuries to the Niners offense with Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle both now being out for at least six weeks each and Kendrick Bourne being out with Covid-19. Injuries have been the story of the Niners season this point but, but they’re still hanging in at .500. Meanwhile, for the Packers, it has really been the Aaron Jones and Davante Adams show as Adams has nearly as many targets and yards as the other receivers combined while posting more catches, touchdowns, and fantasy points and Jones has been great in the running game when healthy. This match-up will likely come down to the battle of the lines as the Packers are allowing the most points to opposing running backs and the Niners are allowing the fewest to this point while in the passing game the Packers have allowed just one sack or fewer in six of seven games this year but they’re also failing to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks with a 19.1-percent QB Pressure rate which is the lowest in the league. One last note, San Fran is 0-4 when allowing 24 or more points and 4-0 when holding opponents under that total.
New York at Washington
Being a half-game out of first place is what’s at stake for Washington in this one. However, that might be a tougher road than it might seem right off the bat depending on how we’re looking at the trends for this match-up. Since 2010, Washington is 3-7 in the game after their bye weeks, like this week, and have lost the last two, but on the other hand the Giants have been in five one-possession games in their last five and lost all but one. Washington’s defense is fourth in DVOA and fourth in fewest yards per game allowed. Their offense has been hit-and-miss as the rankings above show and they rely on their defense to get them good field position and turnovers as well as sacks. Terry McLaurin could be in line for a nice day as the Giants are allowing the 12th-most points to wide receivers this year and their defense is coming off allowing 25 points the prior week.
Chicago at Tennessee
This is perhaps the most interesting match-up on the board this week as it’s the classic immovable object versus unstoppable force. Derrick Henry has been a man on a mission in November and December the last two years racking up 1,857 yards and 23 scores on the ground in those games alone and now it’s the first game in November in 2020. However, the Bears rush defense has been stout this year allowing only Ronald Jones to put up 100 yards rushing so which gives first? Also, this little nugget might lean your decision in one way or another as the Bears have allowed 37 rushes of 10 or more yards this season which is tied for the most in the league and since 2019, Henry has 59 such rushes. On the other side of the line, Allen Robinson should be in line for a very good day as receivers have had a field day against Titans’ corners. Tennessee is allowing nearly 30 points a game to the position and with five of the seven Titans’ games this year being one-possession games, close games tend to help out fantasy points.
Detroit at Minnesota
Coming off a huge day, Dalvin Cook now gets a match-up against a defense allowing the second-most points to running backs this season. The Vikings may have to do it with the ground game as the Lions have only allowed one 300-yard passer so far this year and only allow 248.4 yards a game through the air. Since Cousins joined the Vikings, Minnesota has beaten the Lions four times winning by 12 or more points each game. The biggest thing to pay attention to in this match-up though is the fact that Matthew Stafford is on the Covid-19/Restricted list at the moment and so a backup will be playing in his place which without Kenny Golladay likely missing as well, it could be just the second week that the Vikings don’t give up a top-10 wide receiver in fantasy.
Carolina at Kansas City
The second-largest spread on the board, this is the fifth-straight game that Panthers are facing a former NFL MVP, a record stretch in NFL history. Looking at the stats above, it’s clear to see that the Chiefs are the better team in this match-up but just how good the Chiefs defense has been this year might still be overlooked as they are giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this year and allowing just over 200 yards total per game on defense, third-best in the league. Teddy Bridgewater has thrown zero interceptions in odd-numbered weeks but has one or more in each even-numbered week and with this clearly being an odd-numbered week and facing a tough defense, there could be more interceptions coming for Bridgewater. If Christian McCaffrey is back though it could easily turn into a battle of the running games as the Chiefs with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell have two lead backs facing a team allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the position.
Houston at Jacksonville
The Jaguars have officially made a switch at quarterback heading into this game as Gardner Minshew just hasn’t been working out with the Jags ranking in the bottom-quarter of the league in most offensive categories. This is a good week to do that as the Texans’ defense hasn’t exactly been good at stopping people this year ranking 28th in DVOA, 30th in Yards Allowed, 31st in rushing yards per game. They also haven’t been getting to the quarterbacks as JJ Watt has the fewest sacks through seven games of a season since his rookie season. James Robinson has averaged 100.9 yards from scrimmage this year and with the Texans allowing the third-most points to the running back position in fantasy this year. This game has a chance to be the highest-scoring one on the slate with Deshaun Watson posting a quarterback rating over 100 in five-straight games and Will Fuller have at least a receiving touchdown in that same number of straight games.
Baltimore at Indianapolis
The Ravens offense has been up-and-down this season and it’s been better on the road than at home which is interesting. They are 3-0 in road games and 2-2 at home with an 11.0 average margin of victory on the road. The Colts meanwhile have shown to have to be quite a good defense as they rank third in DVOA and second in yards allowed while allowing the fewest points to quarterbacks and tight ends and the third-fewest versus running backs. The two two games have been good for Philip Rivers with 316.5 yards per game and a 6:1 TD:INT and a 113.2 passer rating, but they faced the Lions and Bengals, two defenses who aren’t as good as the Ravens and Baltimore also rushes the quarterback the most in the NFL with a 45.8-percent blitz rate.
Seattle at Buffalo
Coming back east for games has become a routine for the Seahawks this year as it will be the third trip back in the first eight games of the season (previously Atlanta and Miami). That hasn’t really slowed down the Seattle offense though and the Bills’ defense has been less than stifling, especially on the ground. There are also some strong trends in favor of a certain team in this game as Russell Wilson is 9-1 in his career against the AFC East with the only loss coming in his rookie year against Miami. Buffalo’s six wins this year have come against teams that are a combined 15-22 to this point. Josh Allen hasn’t exactly been great the last four games after starting hot but this is a great chance for him to get back on track as the Seahawks coverage game is terrible and they’ve allowed nearly 1,900 yards to opposing receivers this year.
Denver at Atlanta
The Falcons are not having the year they expected but a game against the Broncos might get them their third win, although the Broncos have won three of their last four games. What’s perhaps the most interesting part of this game is that both of these teams have had major troubles scoring in the red zone with Denver at 50-percent and Atlanta at 53.3-percent which may mean it could be a lower scoring game than the defenses suggest it should be. Sure big plays can boost the score but sustained drives might result in more field goals than touchdowns.
Las Vegas at Los Angeles
Both teams seem to have burgeoning offenses coming into this game as Carr and Herbert both have passer ratings over 104 this year. It’s the defenses though that will make the difference in this game as the Chargers have blown leads of 16 or more points in each of their last four games, winning one, and the Raiders rank 31st in DVOA. Los Angeles has lost their last eight games against the AFC West and while they’ve been solid against the run this year, Josh Jacobs has scored all five of his touchdowns on the road, like they are this week. It’s one of the highest over/unders on the board as of this writing and so expect it to be a high-scoring late game.
Pittsburgh at Dallas
What is there to say about this match-up? It’s the biggest line on the board, and perhaps the most anticipated lopsided win. The Steelers offense has been pretty good of late and the Cowboys defense is just not good, there’s no other way to say it. Now on offense for the Cowboys, they are going with a potential practice squad quarterback because Andy Dalton is on the Covid-19 list and DiNucci just simply doesn’t look good.
Miami at Arizona
The Dolphins defense is fresh off a shellacking of the Rams offense and in a fun note, that’s the first time a former number one overall pick has been beaten by the Dolphins since 2017 (7-1). Arizona meanwhile had the week off last week and last year, the worst game of Kyler Murray ’s season, Week 9, came after their bye week, Week 8. We’re still not sure exactly what the Dolphins’ offense will look like as Tua Tagovailoa didn’t have to do much in his first NFL start last week and the Cardinals pass defense has been pretty decent this year as well with just 247 yards per game allowed and 6.4 yards per attempt. Miami has allowed 17 or fewer points in three straight games, for the first time since 2014, and in order to keep that streak alive again, they’ll have to stop DeAndre Hopkins who is seeing a league-high 30.9-percent of targets thrown his way to this point.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
This will be the fifth time that the top-two quarterbacks in passing yards in NFL history are meeting each other in a game, the home QB is 4-0 in the prior meetings. There’s also some other history on the line as Tom Brady has never been swept by a division opponent in his career, though to be fair the AFC East teams never really put up a consistent showing against the Patriots. The two teams met in Week 1 and the Saints won that game, though in fairness the Buccaneers weren’t really in the flow of things yet and the Saints were at full strength, the last time they were. Both defenses are ranked in the top-eight in DVOA to this point including the Buccaneers who are number one and allow the third-fewest yards per game at less than 300 total gained. Both teams have also been good at shutting down opposing rushing attacks with Tampa allowing just 70.4 yards per game and New Orleans at 90.6 a game and haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 45-straight games. If Michael Thomas is on the field, this is a different match-up for the Saints but a match-up you definitely want to look at is Rob Gronkowski as the Saints have allowed six touchdowns to the position and Gronkowski has caught at least one in three-straight games.
New England at New York
This could be one of the least exciting Monday Night Football games of the year as the Patriots just aren’t the same team as they were the last two decades and the Jets are just waiting until it’s time to call Trevor Lawrence’s name at the podium, though knowing the Jets, they’ll mess that up too. Cam Newton is still the Patriots quarterback, according to a groggy-voiced Bill Belichick despite him having a worse game each time he takes the field. This could still be a blow out for the Patriots though as 32 of Adam Gase’s career losses have been by 10 or more points and the last several losses by the Jets at the hands of the Patriots have been by an average of 21 points. That being said if the Patriots can’t get more than the one, that’s right ONE, touchdown from all of their wide receivers combined it could be a tougher go of it than most Patriots fans have gotten used to against the Jets.