As the NFL nears the midpoint of the season, and for the second week in a row now, there appear to be no schedule adjustments for any of the games on the slate. Not only is that good news for fantasy football players as they get to get back to a normal flow of things, but it’s also the best outcome for players being able to play to the best of their abilities.
As is the case each week, we’ll breakdown each match-up over more than 25 stat categories and we’ll highlight some key differences between the teams and where we can find the mismatches to take advantage of. There will also be a smattering of extra interesting stats for the match-ups.
Below is a key that defines each stat category and how they are ranked. The color-coding that shows for each matchup is geared toward looking from an offensive player’s perspective. So the more green you see, the better that matchup is for an opposing offensive player, and vice versa the more red you see, the worse for an offensive player that matchup is that week
Def vs. Pos categories are based on ½ PPR scoring formats
Key
Offensive Rankings
Pace – How many seconds it takes a team to run a play (1-fastest, 32-slowest)
PPG – Points scored per game (1-most, 32-least)
T.O.P. – Time of Possession (1-most, 32 least)
Total Yards – Total Yards Per Game Offensively (1-most, 32 least)
RZ % - Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage (1-best, 32-worst)
Off Plays – Total Number of Offensive Plays Run Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush Att. – Total Number of Rushing Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Runs (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Rush Yds – Rushing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush YPA – Rushing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Pass Att. – Total Number of Pass Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Pass (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Pass Yds – Passing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass YPA – Passing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Defensive Rankings
DVOA – Football Outsiders Defensive Value Over Average (Negative numbers are better) (1-best, 32-worst)
Yds/G Allowed – Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Yds/P Allowed – Yards Per Play Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/G – Rushing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/Att. – Rushing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/G – Passing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/Att. – Passing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Def vs. QB – Fantasy Points Allowed Vs QB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. RB - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs RB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. WR - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs WR (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. TE - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs TE (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Bye Weeks: Baltimore, Indianapolis, Miami, Minnesota
Match-Up Breakdowns
New York at Philadelphia
A matchup of the two middle teams in the NFC East kicks off Week 7 on Thursday night and injuries have played a big role in this one. Both the Giants and Eagles are missing key players including the Eagles losing Miles Sanders last week which isn’t great timing as the Giants rank in the top-10 of rush defenses (fifth-best according to PFF) and now Philly doesn’t have much at the position. They rank 26th and 27th respectively in coverage in general according to Pro Football Focus and the Eagles have allowed the fourth-most point to Tight Ends this year so expect Evan Engram to be a popular target for Daniel Jones on Thursday.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee
This game is a makeup of the earlier game they were supposed to play but was postponed due to issues with Covid. Both teams are 5-0 on the season and this game could easily be a tiebreaker for home-field advantage in the playoffs if the teams continue their winning ways. These have both been offenses predicated on the running game to this point but the Steelers are a top-two rush defense while the Titans have been generally middle of the road defensively in general and have given up top-10 points to all positions for fantasy. The key intriguing match-up here is the Titans red zone offense that is converting nearly 80-percent of the time against the stingiest red zone defense in the league in terms of trips allowed in Pittsburgh and their 13 total trips allowed.
Dallas at Washington
Can the Cowboys rebound from the embarrassment that was Monday night at home? Well, they are still in first in the division, for the time being, because if Philadelphia wins on Thursday, they’d be in first as this game kicks off. Washington has had a surprisingly good defense this year as they rank seventh in DVOA and give up the sixth-fewest yards to opposing offenses. They’ve also allowed the third-fewest points to wide receivers this year, which could be an issue for Andy Dalton and his targets. Meanwhile, this could be a great game for Terry McLaurin who is facing a bad pass defense giving up 7.2 yards per attempt and the third-most points to wideouts this year.
Buffalo at New York
After losing two-straight games in poor fashion to likely future playoff opponents, the Bills get to rebound with the worst team in the league. The Jets rank poorly in most offensive categories except for passing play percentage (since they’re trailing so often) but even with that they rank last in passing yards per game and yards per attempt. The Bills offense should be able to make quick work of the Jets defense that hasn’t really stopped the passing attack that well and so Stefon Diggs and John Brown shouldn’t have much of a problem in this one with Josh Allen getting back on track.
Carolina at New Orleans
Is this the week we see Michael Thomas back on the field for the Saints? If it is, he will help put the seventh-best pass defense in the league to the test, but if he’s not ready yet, Alvin Kamara will play an even bigger role once again in the New Orleans offense. Teddy Bridgewater could be in line for a revenge game of sorts as they kept Drew Brees and didn’t extend Bridgewater as a backup after solid starts for them last year. Whether it’s Christian McCaffrey or Mike Davis in the backfield for the Panthers they will have their work cut out for them against the fourth-ranked rush defense according to PFF and sixth-ranked based on yards allowed per game.
Green Bay at Houston
Get ready for what could very well be a track meet in Houston. Neither team is doing a great job of slowing down opposing offenses and the Packers are fresh off of allowing 38 points in a blow out loss and aside from the win over Jacksonville, the Texans have allowed at least 28 points a game on defense including a season-high 42 last week to Tennessee. It should be a big game from Aaron Jones as the Texans are dead last in the NFL in yards per game allowed and David Johnson should have a nice day as well, as the Packers allow the second-most points to the position in the league.
Cleveland at Cincinnati
The last time the Battle of Ohio happened, the Browns won 35-30. Since then the Browns defense has improved some but the offense has taken some steps backward and lost Nick Chubb. The Bengals have seen the rookie mistakes show up from Joe Burrow and now have Joe Mixon questionable with a foot issue. The Browns need this win to keep pace in the AFC North as even with four wins they are third in the division and even with Chubb sidelined, D’Ernest Johnson and Kareem Hunt shouldn’t have any issue putting up big yards against a rush defense that ranks fifth in most yards allowed per game and allow more than five yards a carry on the ground.
Detroit at Atlanta
This game will likely be the most stacked game in DFS because the offenses are so high-powered and the defenses are so lackluster. That’s really what this comes down to. Detroit has allowed the fourth-most and ninth-most points to opposing running backs and wide receivers respectively while allowing 145 yards a game on the ground. Atlanta meanwhile allows top-five points to the quarterback, wide receivers, and tight ends and a whopping 335 passing yards a game to opposing quarterbacks. The touchdown threats are immense in this game between D’Andre Swift, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and T.J. Hockenson for the Lions and Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst, and Todd Gurley for Atlanta so have fun building lineups with that group.
Tampa Bay at Las Vegas
Tampa is coming off shutting down one of the best offenses last week by holding the Packers to 10 points and now they get the Raiders who have been surprisingly good on offense this year averaging the sixth-most points per game and sixth-most yards per game. The Raiders though are going strength-on-strength against the Bucs defense which ranks number one in DVOA, yards allowed, and rush yards allowed. The Raiders are allowing the third-most points to running backs though and Ronald Jones II has posted three 100-yard games in a row, after one in his previous 28 games, and so this could be another strong fantasy showing for Jones while Chris Godwin has one of the strongest match-ups in his favor according to the PFF WR/CB Match-up grades. *Update*: The time of the game has changed to 4:05 pm ET from Sunday Night Football and the Raiders have placed their starting O-Line on the Covid list so that should vastly change what they can do on offense.
Jacksonville at Los Angeles
The Chargers maybe 1-4 but all four losses have been by a combined 18 points, and all have been by one possession. This week the match-up gets easier as the Jaguars come to town with their 32nd-ranked defense according to DVOA while giving up the eighth-most points a game on defense. Justin Herbert should be able to get on track as Jacksonville gives up the seventh-most yards through the air and the most per attempt as well. L.A. meanwhile runs the fourth-most offensive plays a game, puts up the ninth-most total yards, and eighth-most passing yards a game. Both Tyler Eifert and Hunter Henry have good match-ups this week in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position and Henry has a top-three match-up based on PFF advantage rankings.
San Francisco at New England
This is an interesting match-up on a few different levels. The two teams have been up and down this season as the 49ers have gone 3-0 when allowing the opponent less than 24 points a game but 0-3 when allowing over 24 points. Meanwhile Belichick is 7-1 since becoming head coach of the Patriots when facing quarterbacks drafted by or former starters for him. On offense there are more things that follow these themes as Cam Newton has seen a declining quarterback rating in each of his starts but has been the leading rushing for the Patriots three times. San Francisco hasn’t had a wide receiver top 75 yards in a game yet, the only team in the league to have that happen, meanwhile Jimmy Garoppolo has the third-best winning percentage of any QB with at least 30 starts since 1970. So what gives in this match-up? Does Cam Newton have a better game against a tough defense? Does Garoppolo hand Belichick his second loss against former quarterbacks of his?
Kansas City at Denver
The Chiefs have owned this match-up recently with nine straight wins over the Broncos this one isn’t shaping up to be any different. The Broncos have gotten a tad better on defense over the last few weeks but this week they are facing the only team to rank in the top-10 in passing yards per game and rushing yards per game. The Chiefs defense does have its holes as they have had trouble stopping the run but the Broncos haven’t exactly been elite in the running game averaging between 109 and 101 yards a game over the last three weeks while dealing with some switches in their backfield. One side note on this game is that the air quality could be getting worse in Denver as there is the largest wildfire in the state’s history happening just north of Denver so that is a thing to watch for in terms of players possibly having issues with the thinner air and potentially bad air quality.
Seattle at Arizona
Seattle is coming off their bye week and since 2012, the year Russell Wilson took over at Quarterback, the Seahawks are 8-2 in games following a bye with an average margin of victory 9.0 points. Arizona has been a decent defensive team this year as they rank 13th in total yards allowed and 11th-best in passing yards allowed. They haven’t faced an offense like Seattle though who ranks fourth in passing yards a game posted while being number one in PPG and RZ-percentage. So far this year the Cardinals have been rushing it 46.1-percent of the time on offense but expect them to pass more on Sunday trying to keep pace with the Seahawks who pass it 60.9-percent of the time and are highly efficient with it. Great match-ups are everywhere in favor of offensive players with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, David Moore, DeAndre Hopkins, and Christian Kirk all have positive match-ups according to PFF WR/CB Match-up grades. *Update*: The game has been moved to the Sunday Night Football slot after the Raiders had several players placed on the Covid list. The bright lights should add more juice to this divisional match-up as both quarterbacks love the prime time games.
Chicago at Los Angeles
Both teams have been a bit wayward at times this year on offense despite them coming into this game at a combined 9-3. Nick Foles has been more consistent than Mitch Trubisky at the helm but the offense has dropped in average passing yards and rushing yards per game the last three weeks. Meanwhile, the Rams have been chugging along on offense, though there is clearly some issues in the backfield with who’s getting carries and snaps, it’s not been significantly affecting their efficiency. Jared Goff though has the most interceptions without throwing a TD against the Bears of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era with five picks to no touchdowns. The task of reversing course on that stat is tough this year too given that the Bears have allowed just one touchdown to a receiver all year, to Mike Evans.