How is everyone feeling heading into Week 6? A crazy Week 5 with schedule adjustments, key injuries, and all the talk about coronavirus that we can handle for a while. Week 6 appears to be on track to get all scheduled games in though that doesn’t mean that there hasn’t been schedule changes this week as well.
As is the case each week, we’ll breakdown each match-up over more than 25 stat categories and we’ll highlight some key differences between the teams and where we can find the mismatches to take advantage of.
Below is a key that defines each stat category and how they are ranked. The color-coding that shows for each matchup is geared toward looking from an offensive player’s perspective. So the more green you see, the better that matchup is for an opposing offensive player, and vice versa the more red you see, the worse for an offensive player that matchup is that week
Def vs. Pos categories are based on ½ PPR scoring formats
Key
Offensive Rankings
Pace – How many seconds it takes a team to run a play (1-fastest, 32-slowest)
PPG – Points scored per game (1-most, 32-least)
T.O.P. – Time of Possession (1-most, 32 least)
Total Yards – Total Yards Per Game Offensively (1-most, 32 least)
RZ % - Red Zone TD Scoring Percentage (1-best, 32-worst)
Off Plays – Total Number of Offensive Plays Run Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush Att. – Total Number of Rushing Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Runs (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Rush Yds – Rushing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Rush YPA – Rushing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Pass Att. – Total Number of Pass Attempts Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass % - Percentage of Offensive Plays That Are Pass (1-highest, 32-lowest)
Pass Yds – Passing Yards Per Game (1-most, 32-least)
Pass YPA – Passing Yards Per Attempt (1-most, 32-least)
Defensive Rankings
DVOA – Football Outsiders Defensive Value Over Average (Negative numbers are better) (1-best, 32-worst)
Yds/G Allowed – Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Yds/P Allowed – Yards Per Play Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/G – Rushing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Rush Yds/Att. – Rushing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/G – Passing Yards Per Game Against (1-least, 32-most)
Pass Yds/Att. – Passing Yards Per Attempt Against (1-least, 32-most)
Def vs. QB – Fantasy Points Allowed Vs QB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. RB - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs RB (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. WR - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs WR (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Def vs. TE - Fantasy Points Allowed Vs TE (1-most allowed, 32-least allowed)
Match-Up Breakdowns
Denver at New England
This game was slated to happen in Week 5 before positive tests pushed it to Week 6 and perhaps that move has benefitted both teams in terms of the quarterback position. Had this game been played last week neither Drew Lock nor Cam Newton were likely to play now this week both are possibilities. The Broncos have had a hard time stopping opponent passing games and if Cam Newton plays, that task doesn’t get easier. While the Patriots’ defense is typically stout against opposing wideouts, there’s still a chance that Stephon Gilmore doesn’t play which should make Jerry Jeudy a more attractive play outside as the Patriots have given up the tenth-most point to the position this year while the Broncos are allowing the ninth-most.
Houston at Tennessee
Fresh off their dismantling of the Buffalo Bills, the Titans get back at it against Houston who is coming off a win in their own right after firing Bill O’Brien prior to the game. Both of these teams though have some interesting weaknesses as both rank in the bottom-five for rushing yards allowed on defense and they’ve each allowed at least 4.7 yards per carry on the ground as well. David Johnson and Derrick Henry both had solid weeks in Week 5 and Week 6 could be no different, especially for Henry with the Texans allowing the fifth-most points to running backs this year. The Texans are throwing the ball nearly 64-percent of the time and the Titans are allowing 261 yards per game through the air so it will likely come down to if the Titans can contain Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks versus the Texans containing Derrick Henry.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Three teams in the AFC North have four wins through five games, two of them are in this game. While these games are typically very interesting as the added heat of a divisional rivalry is involved, the fact that depending on outcomes on Sunday, the winner of this game could be in first place with a nice tiebreaker in their favor. Both teams have top-eight rush offenses by yards but both have top-four rush defenses by yards allowed which brings the unstoppable force versus immovable object line to mind. The team that can control the rushing game better will win this game.
Baltimore at Philadelphia
After showing well against their in-state rival last week, and thanks to a big week from Travis Fulgham the match-up doesn’t get any easier for the depleted offense of the Eagles as they face a top-three defense based on DVOA and top-six based on yards allowed per game. Even with Lamar Jackson only gaining three yards on the ground last week, he stated earlier this week that the offense will be running fine against the Eagles and their 22nd-ranked defense based on DVOA. This should also be a great week for Mark Andrews as the Eagles give up the fifth-most fantasy points to the TE position.
Washington at New York
Who’s lackluster offense will best who’s lackluster defense is this match-up in a nutshell. Both teams have struggled on both sides of the ball to put it mildly though Washington has looked better with Chase Young on the field like he’s expected to be again this week. Evan Engram has another favorable match-up this week as well as Washington has given up the third-most points to tight ends this year.
Atlanta at Minnesota
As of Thursday morning there was a new positive test for the Falcons and they have shut down their facility to continue testing. There is no indication the game won’t be played as of Thursday morning but keep an eye out for it. When the game does kickoff, this should be perhaps the highest scoring game of the weekend as both defenses are terrible and both give up at least 400 yards a game and the Falcons allow more than 330 yards through the air to opposing offenses. Dalvin Cook isn’t expected to play after injuring his groin last week but his backup Alexander Mattison still put up more than 100 yards against the Seahawks and expect him to be a focal point of the offense again this week as well while Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson continue their strong seasons.
Detroit at Jacksonville
If the above game isn’t the highest-scoring, it sure could be this one as both offenses face bottom-three defenses in terms of DVOA and bottom-five based on yards allowed. Both teams have very target happy wide receivers and Jacksonville has a good young running back in James Robinson who now gets to face a rush defense that allows the most yards on the ground this year and the most fantasy points to the position as well. After a bye week there should be no concerns about injuries for the Lions and for players like Kenny Golloday and Marvin Jones it should be a good day as the Jaguars allow the fourth-most yards through the air and the most yards per attempt.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis
Two teams coming off of bad offensive weeks looking for redemption but this isn’t the easiest match-up for either unit as the Colts are one of the best defenses in the league and aside from rushing defense, the Bengals are a top-10 passing defense. Phillip Rivers looks to be on his last legs but perhaps the rushing game can help him out as the Bengals rank 30th against the run and the Colts rank top-eight in rushing attempts per game and percentage of rushing plays called.
Chicago at Carolina
The Panthers have been flying under the radar but might be one of the more efficient offenses in the league as they run the 19th-most plays per game but rank sixth in total offensive yards and third in time of possession. The Bears have been up and down on offense to this point and the main weapon continues to be Allen Robinson and Jimmy Graham as well. The thing though is that the Panthers rank fourth in pass defense based on yards allowed and yards per attempt which doesn’t help the Bears pass offense that ranks 23rd in yards per game. While the Panthers haven’t been great against the run, the Bears haven’t shown they can run the ball effectively much this year.
New York at Miami
The embattled Adam Gase is heading to face his former team who could have his former running back on the roster by the time the game kicks off, based on news as of this writing. The Dolphins flatout smoked the 49ers last weekend and now get a team that is nowhere near that caliber in the Jets and their defense that is bottom-eight in the league. The Jets offense really shouldn’t be a threat either though their match-up with the Dolphins might make LaMichael Perine a dart throw in large GPPs.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay
Clearly this is the best quarterback match-up of the week but one of them has more work cut out for him than the other as the Tampa defense is a challenging unit to parse especially if the Packers aren’t at full-strength. There are clearly still some kinks to work out on offense in Tampa Bay after last week’s performance in which Tom Brady forgot what down it was. The Packers’ defense has held up pretty well to this point but now with their offense potentially getting stalled for the first time this week, they may have a tougher task without as much room for error.
Los Angeles at San Francisco
This game certainly looked a lot more appealing at the beginning of the season than it is now with the Niners offensive injuries and key pieces missing on defense too. Even with the issues though, the San Francisco defense has still been pretty solid, despite last week, and ranks fifth in yards allowed per game while the Rams’ offense is fourth in yards per game. What should be interesting to see is how the Rams run game which ranks fourth in attempts per game and second in percentage of plays called for runs holds up against San Fran’s top-10 rush defense.
Kansas City at Buffalo
The game that was originally scheduled for Thursday Night Football in Week 6 and then was moved to Sunday was then moved to Monday after the Bills played on Tuesday. Both teams are coming off their first loss of the season but are still top offenses in points per game and yards and passing attacks. The Chiefs defense is better against the pass than the run and for the Bills it’s the opposite which sets up some interesting targets for fantasy. Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes are locks to play and Devin Singletary could actually have a good game with how porous the Chiefs rush defense is.
Arizona at Dallas
The Cowboys defense is horrendous and now face the Cardinals offense which is top-10 in total yards and offensive plays per game. Kyler Murray is also 6-0 in AT&T Stadium as he was 5-0 in high school, three of those being state titles, and 1-0 in college as Oklahoma won the Big 12 title. Andy Dalton looked good in his filling in for Dak Prescott last week but the Cardinals defense has been tougher than the Giants unit and now that the emotions of what happened last week wearing off it could be a bit of a different story, though the weapons are still in place for Dalton to succeed. Michael Gallup might be a sneaky play in this match-up as he and Dalton seemed to have a connection and the Cardinals have struggled a bit against WR3.