Prepare for a lot of potential chaos. I know that’s an ominous start to a track breakdown but we are racing at Talladega this weekend after all and it’s a track and a race that is marketed almost strictly on “The Big One” a.k.a a huge crash that will take out a chunk of cars at one time. That is almost always what we get at the tracks like Talladega and Daytona.

This is truly a race weekend that anyone can win and there are different strategies that you can use in DFS from starting everyone in the back and just hoping for crashes to a stars and scrubs approach to simply playing everyone in at least one lineup because who knows how the race is going to turn out. Even with all of that said, you’ll see as the data shows that there are still plays that are typically better than others even at an unpredictable track like ‘Dega.

The last 10 races at Talladega have been straight up dominated by Ford with the lone Chevy win being from Chase Elliott a couple of races ago. Whether it’s because drivers of the Fords tend to be better plate racers or because Fords are better drafting and pushing partners due to aerodynamics is hard to say, but both are likely equally as responsible.

Strategy Notes

For this race the laps completed is a key stat because the guys with the higher totals for laps completed and laps completed on average are usually the ones finishing the highest in the races and finish position and PD are going to be the two highest parts of the DFS scoring this week. Laps led and fastest laps carry not a lot of weight as it’s often that the lead gets jumbled up fairly frequently depending on which lane is the better drafting lane that particular lap of the race. We are looking for  the guys that complete the most laps and move up the best through the field. I do not take momentum into account for this week simply because anything can happen and even the driver coming in with five-straight wins could easily crash out quickly here and vice versa could be true as well.

Core Drivers By Tiers

Tier 1 - Ryan Blaney

  • How can you not list the two-time defending winner at Talladega from this tier?

  • It is close with his teammate Joey Logano but the price and PD is better for Blaney

  • Blaney is second in the field in dominator points, laps completed, and average driver rating

Tier 2 - Aric Almirola

  • Almirola locked down a win here a few years ago in the Fall Talladega race

  • In the last eight-straight race he’s finished in the top-10 including five top-fives with a P4 and P3 in the last two races.

  • His average finish of 5.1 in the last eight races is best in the field by far while moving up 12.4 spots a race.

Tier 3 - Ty Dillon

  • Dillon has four top-20 finishes in the last four ‘Dega races while moving up 10.5 spots a race.

  • He ranks 13th in the field over the last eight races with four top-20s in that span with the eighth-best average finish of 13.3.

  • Dillon is cheaper on both sites this time around than he was in June as well.

Contrarian - Clint Bowyer

  • Bowyer won the playoff races here in 2010 and 2011 and has seven top-fives and 13 top-10s in his 29 starts at Talladega.

  • He finished P25 in the June race but with 10-percent of the race to go he was running P12 and was running as high as P5.

  • Starting inside the top-10 has been a good spot to score from here and P9 has been the best starting spot in the last four races here which is where he is starting on Sunday.

Last Four Races At Talladega

Tier 1

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Chase ElliottHendrick4713.719.5-12.51100
Joey LoganoPenske411.879.32.52011
Kevin HarvickSHR410.517.223.3-12.80101
Brad KeselowskiPenske48.59.821-12.50011
Denny HamlinJGR418.819.111.873000
Ryan BlaneyPenske411.88.211.50.32010
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Chase Elliott416.56.37.362.3%200.586.2175.8
Joey Logano421.53.87.390.6%225.5105.8190.0
Kevin Harvick412.03.84.955.0%137.873.4145.8
Brad Keselowski413.34.05.381.1%244.092.3188.5
Denny Hamlin44.54.83.545.4%141.078.6163.0
Ryan Blaney427.04.38.990.0%263.0102.3190.0

Tier 2

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Kyle BuschJGR41511.821.8-6.80101
Brendan GaughanBeard43124.917140110
Martin Truex JrJGR412.523.423.3-10.80001
William ByronHendrick413.813.821.3-7.50011
Ricky Stenhouse JrJTG411.311.99.81.52100
Jimmie JohnsonHendrick48.822.822.8-140110
Aric AlmirolaSHR46.511.64.32.23100
Clint BowyerSHR45.817.419.8-141000
Kurt BuschGanassi411.59.514.3-2.80210
Tyler ReddickRCR11613.520-40001
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Kyle Busch44.36.04.174.3%265.885.1189.5
Brendan Gaughan41.55.33.08.9%31.060.7188.3
Martin Truex Jr43.83.52.722.5%90.364.1188.5
William Byron47.34.03.858.5%213.380.4183.5
Ricky Stenhouse Jr413.33.55.173.1%250.596.1189.8
Jimmie Johnson40.00.00.038.6%156.869.8167.0
Aric Almirola47.83.83.869.2%197.396.7190.0
Clint Bowyer43.34.53.151.5%128.574.3187.8
Kurt Busch431.04.510.080.6%240.897.6188.3
Tyler Reddick119.04.06.858.6%265.080.7191.0

Tier 3

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Erik JonesJGR417.81816.51.31101
Bubba WallacePetty42425.12400011
Austin DillonRCR414.816.919-4.20111
Matt DiBenedettoWood Bros.426.817.229.3-2.50000
Christopher BellLFR13515.42960000
Ryan NewmanRoush418.323.114.341100
Corey LajoieGo Fas433.52716.5170111
Ryan PreeceJTG330.321.51218.31011
Ty DillonGermain4241713.510.50121
Cole CusterSHR128122260000
Chris BuescherRoush425.318.419.360101
John H. NemechekFront Row12218.18140100
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Erik Jones41.34.52.646.0%160.881.1184
Bubba Wallace40.53.82.019.0%88.856.3145
Austin Dillon40.33.81.946.7%192.574.0176
Matt DiBenedetto41.06.03.338.3%168.870.3186
Christopher Bell14.02.02.060.7%328.066.6190
Ryan Newman40.00.00.015.6%44.073.0190
Corey Lajoie40.03.31.65.7%10.561.8190
Ryan Preece31.05.02.819.5%116.371.0189
Ty Dillon41.86.33.636.4%129.579.8190
Cole Custer10.03.01.568.1%296.080.3191
Chris Buescher41.32.01.337.4%178.871.3188
John H. Nemechek10.07.03.540.8%216.084.1191

Tier 4

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Matt KensethGanassi1132940-270000
Daniel SuarezGaunt421.317.622-0.70011
Michael McDowellFront Row418.527.825.8-7.31001
Justin HaleySpire13821.63260000
James DavisonRick Ware         
Timmy HillMBM13836.23350000
Joey GasePWR336.331.330.360001
Quin HouffStarCom13234.82750000
Brennan PoolePremium12729.935-80000
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Matt Kenseth10.02.01.014.7%68.044.0127
Daniel Suarez40.05.32.645.1%173.569.4185
Michael McDowell40.05.32.613.5%60.852.6136
Justin Haley10.08.04.017.6%84.068.5180
James Davison   0.0    
Timmy Hill10.05.02.50.0%0.032.1185
Joey Gase30.02.01.03.1%14.039.4165
Quin Houff10.01.00.50.0%0.036.4190
Brennan Poole11.07.03.82.1%4.038.3178

Top-20 Drivers Over The Last Eight Talladega Races

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Joey Logano810.97.89.41.55011
Aric Almirola817.514.85.112.45300
Ricky Stenhouse Jr8812.59.5-1.55100
Denny Hamlin814.11510.144120
Kurt Busch89.31111.8-2.52310
Ryan Blaney813.89.616.5-2.72022
Chase Elliott85.912.117.4-11.52111
Brad Keselowski86.910.520.4-13.51111
Alex Bowman69.313.420.5-11.21200
Kyle Busch814.91420-5.11111
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Kevin Harvick811.615.318.4-6.81202
Ryan Newman819.823.413.46.42210
Ty Dillon725.418.413.312.10151
Jimmie Johnson813.317.319.8-6.50220
John H. Nemechek12218.18140100
Austin Dillon8161923.1-7.10211
Daniel Suarez717.11718.9-1.80122
William Byron514.413.522.8-8.40011
Ryan Preece330.321.51218.31011
Erik Jones716.321.524.9-8.61101
  LLFLDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts/ Race/RaceRating
Joey Logano833.83.510.2187.0108.3
Aric Almirola83.92.62.3189.986
Ricky Stenhouse Jr810.44.44.8187.693.7
Denny Hamlin811.03.94.7176.486.3
Kurt Busch816.55.16.7186.996.1
Ryan Blaney817.34.06.3184.697.2
Chase Elliott812.64.15.2179.189
Brad Keselowski825.33.98.3180.393.9
Alex Bowman67.73.33.6175.885.3
Kyle Busch88.95.14.8187.585.8
  LLFLDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts/ Race/RaceRating
Kevin Harvick89.43.84.3166.380.3
Ryan Newman81.16.03.3189.167.8
Ty Dillon71.45.63.2189.675
Jimmie Johnson80.82.81.6176.380.5
John H. Nemechek10.07.03.5191.084.1
Austin Dillon80.34.32.2174.869.8
Daniel Suarez71.75.02.9186.070
William Byron58.64.04.2179.881.5
Ryan Preece31.05.02.8189.071
Erik Jones70.72.91.6142.767.6

Top-20 Drivers At Similar Races

(Daytona and Talladega)

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W51015
Joey Logano168.510.815.1-6.62789
Denny Hamlin1612.615.512.10.528911
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1610.313.315.2-4.92678
Aric Almirola1516.316.410.85.5161011
Ryan Blaney1614.411.317.6-3.22468
Kurt Busch1611.414.718.0-6.61378
Ryan Newman1617.520.313.34.204911
Chase Elliott168.313.419.6-11.31346
Alex Bowman126.712.517.8-11.10156
Brad Keselowski169.414.124.1-14.71135
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W51015
Jimmie Johnson1614.116.720.6-6.50147
Erik Jones1518.72122.5-3.81355
Kevin Harvick168.315.720.8-12.50244
Chris Buescher1625.420.216.49.00368
Kyle Busch1615.915.922.4-6.50235
William Byron1113.31621.2-7.91223
Michael McDowell1623.120.119.73.40348
Ty Dillon1524.718.816.48.30149
Austin Dillon1615.418.721.0-5.61146
Clint Bowyer161218.720.4-8.40235
  LedFast LapsDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts. / Race/RaceRating
Joey Logano1623.93.77.8169.898.1
Denny Hamlin1615.63.75.8170.884.2
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1612.84.05.2178.491.5
Aric Almirola152.73.52.4184.479.4
Ryan Blaney1617.93.46.2173.394.9
Kurt Busch169.95.25.1172.386.6
Ryan Newman161.65.53.2183.970.5
Chase Elliott1611.64.45.1165.186.1
Alex Bowman125.33.63.1177.387.8
Brad Keselowski1617.43.36.0155.885.7
  LedFast LapsDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts. / Race/RaceRating
Jimmie Johnson161.93.92.4162.782.7
Erik Jones152.74.02.7145.571.5
Kevin Harvick169.93.04.0161.981.4
Chris Buescher160.42.21.2178.867.9
Kyle Busch1610.93.94.7168.881.6
William Byron1111.23.84.7155.782.5
Michael McDowell161.64.82.8167.069.1
Ty Dillon151.35.33.0170.173.4
Austin Dillon163.54.43.1170.971.5
Clint Bowyer162.04.62.8175.270.9

Finish Position Ranges By Starting Spot Ranges

StartFinish Ranges
Range1-56-1011-1516-2020+
1-553408
6-1044237
11-1552049
16-2031349
21-2517336
26-30122411
31-35015014
36-40101216
Total2020202080

Price Changes

These tables show the difference in pricing for each driver from the first race here in June to the race this weekend. A positive in the difference column means they are more expensive this time while a negative shows they are cheaper.

DraftKings Price Changes FanDuel Price Changes
 Oct.June   Oct.June 
Drivers$$Difference Drivers$$Difference
Denny Hamlin$9,700$9,200$500 Denny Hamlin$11,400$12,700-$1,300
Kurt Busch$8,100$8,500-$400 Kurt Busch$10,300$11,100-$800
Martin Truex Jr$9,300$9,000$300 Martin Truex Jr$10,000$11,300-$1,300
Alex Bowman$7,500$8,200-$700 Alex Bowman$8,600$10,600-$2,000
Kevin Harvick$10,100$9,400$700 Kevin Harvick$10,500$11,600-$1,100
Kyle Busch$9,500$9,300$200 Kyle Busch$10,200$11,800-$1,600
Brad Keselowski$9,900$9,600$300 Brad Keselowski$11,200$12,400-$1,200
Joey Logano$10,300$10,200$100 Joey Logano$11,600$13,000-$1,400
Clint Bowyer$8,300$9,900-$1,600 Clint Bowyer$9,000$9,900-$900
Chase Elliott$10,500$10,400$100 Chase Elliott$11,800$13,300-$1,500
Aric Almirola$8,500$6,800$1,700 Aric Almirola$10,700$11,000-$300
Austin Dillon$7,300$5,800$1,500 Austin Dillon$8,000$8,500-$500
 Oct.June   Oct.June 
Drivers$$Difference Drivers$$Difference
Matt DiBenedetto$7,200$7,800-$600 Matt DiBenedetto$7,400$8,100-$700
Ryan Blaney$9,100$10,100-$1,000 Ryan Blaney$12,000$12,000$0
Chris Buescher$6,000$5,600$400 Chris Buescher$5,500$7,900-$2,400
Erik Jones$8,000$7,000$1,000 Erik Jones$8,300$8,800-$500
Jimmie Johnson$8,600$8,800-$200 Jimmie Johnson$9,300$10,500-$1,200
Cole Custer$6,200$6,000$200 Cole Custer$7,200$7,800-$600
Ryan Newman$6,800$6,700$100 Ryan Newman$7,600$8,000-$400
Matt Kenseth$5,900$8,700-$2,800 Matt Kenseth$6,200$7,400-$1,200
William Byron$8,900$8,000$900 William Byron$8,800$9,700-$900
Christopher Bell$7,000$9,700-$2,700 Christopher Bell$7,000$8,900-$1,900
John H. Nemechek$5,600$5,500$100 John H. Nemechek$5,000$5,000$0
Michael McDowell$5,700$6,300-$600 Michael McDowell$4,500$4,500$0
 Oct.June   Oct.June 
Drivers$$Difference Drivers$$Difference
Ryan Preece$6,500$6,200$300 Ryan Preece$6,400$7,200-$800
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$8,800$8,400$400 Ricky Stenhouse Jr$11,000$10,100$900
Bubba Wallace$7,700$7,400$300 Bubba Wallace$6,600$6,000$600
Ty Dillon$6,300$7,100-$800 Ty Dillon$6,000$6,800-$800
Corey Lajoie$6,700$6,500$200 Corey Lajoie$5,500$4,000$1,500
Tyler Reddick$7,900$6,900$1,000 Tyler Reddick$9,600$9,300$300
Daniel Suarez$5,800$7,300-$1,500 Daniel Suarez$4,500$4,500$0
Brennan Poole$4,800$5,200-$400 Brennan Poole$4,000$3,000$1,000
Quin Houff$4,900$4,700$200 Quin Houff$4,000$3,000$1,000
JJ Yeley $4,800  JJ Yeley$4,000$3,000$1,000
Justin Haley$5,400   Justin Haley   
Joey Gase$5,000$4,900$100 Joey Gase$4,000$3,000$1,000
Timmy Hill$5,200$5,300-$100 Timmy Hill$4,000$3,000$1,000
James Davison$5,300   James Davison$4,000  
Brendan Gaughan$9,500$7,600$1,900 Brendan Gaughan$5,000$5,000$0

Weekly Rankings

Race Hist, Track Hist, Type Hist are all ranked on average finish position over the last four races at the track, five races this season, eight races at this track, and similar races respectively. The Avg. Rating and Top-15 % columns are ranked on those categories in the last four races at this track. The L8 PD column ranks the position differential over the last eight races from best (most positive) to worst (most negative).

Tier 1

DriverDK$FD $Race HistDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Chase Elliott$10,500$11,800163362841116
Joey Logano$10,300$11,60031948135
Kevin Harvick$10,100$10,500262133151321
Brad Keselowski$9,900$11,200203053362030
Denny Hamlin$9,700$11,40068218353
Ryan Blaney$9,100$12,0005511421011

Tier 2

DriverDK$FD $Race HistDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Kyle Busch$9,500$10,200222882561827
Brendan Gaughan$9,500$5,000131611611610
Martin Truex Jr$9,300$10,0002634935103229
William Byron$8,900$8,800212663072525
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$8,800$11,00049310346
Jimmie Johnson$8,600$9,3002536103281720
Aric Almirola$8,500$10,70011025212
Clint Bowyer$8,300$9,000172973492319
Kurt Busch$8,100$10,300920594613
Tyler Reddick$7,900$9,600191742051832

Tier 3

DriverDK$FD $Race HistDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Erik Jones$8,000$8,30011221027122728
Bubba Wallace$7,700$6,600281462282413
Austin Dillon$7,300$8,00014231226112623
Matt DiBenedetto$7,200$7,40032241123102822
Christopher Bell$7,000$7,000311892193423
Ryan Newman$6,800$7,60091177694
Corey Lajoie$6,700$5,5001142421415
Ryan Preece$6,500$6,40077523718
Ty Dillon$6,300$6,0008333488
Cole Custer$6,200$7,200231281172236
Chris Buescher$6,000$5,500156465128
John H. Nemechek$5,600$5,0002111121

Tier 4

DriverDK$FD $Race HistDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Matt Kenseth$5,900$6,200383773872835
Daniel Suarez$5,800$4,500232541211531
Michael McDowell$5,700$4,50029212953017
Justin Haley$5,400 3435 17 357
James Davison$5,300$4,0004035 37 4039
Timmy Hill$5,200$4,000351531943637
Joey Gase$5,000$4,000332761533333
Quin Houff$4,900$4,000301321323138
Brennan Poole$4,800$4,000363153663726

DFS Value Averages

This replaces the DFS Scoring Averages table that had been here. Instead, we have the DFS Value figures instead. We have taken their points scored over the last two and five races on each site and averaged those out and then divided that average by their salary divided by 1,000.

Tier 1

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Chase Elliott$10,5000.902.374.30$11,8002.273.374.64
Joey Logano$10,3003.244.863.64$11,6003.984.994.67
Kevin Harvick$10,1002.851.886.26$10,5004.273.136.32
Brad Keselowski$9,9001.011.194.64$11,2002.752.695.20
Denny Hamlin$9,7006.474.075.37$11,4005.804.215.40
Ryan Blaney$9,1007.644.544.25$12,0005.974.264.22

Tier 2

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Kyle Busch$9,5001.182.493.70$10,2002.893.745.02
Brendan Gaughan$9,5003.424.384.59$5,0008.079.678.82
Martin Truex Jr$9,3000.591.024.86$10,0002.712.975.61
William Byron$8,9001.741.903.32$8,8003.683.735.43
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$8,8006.014.782.58$11,0005.534.843.60
Jimmie Johnson$8,600-0.221.724.12$9,3002.123.485.49
Aric Almirola$8,5005.726.054.02$10,7005.595.664.92
Clint Bowyer$8,3001.101.094.11$9,0003.223.325.79
Kurt Busch$8,1003.064.814.06$10,3003.924.835.05
Tyler Reddick$7,9003.393.393.85$9,6004.174.175.09

Tier 3

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Erik Jones$8,0002.642.434.20$8,3004.424.026.23
Bubba Wallace$7,7004.553.053.30$6,6006.695.156.86
Austin Dillon$7,3002.592.464.58$8,0004.084.176.46
Matt DiBenedetto$7,2002.552.884.36$7,4004.204.467.04
Christopher Bell$7,0003.293.294.14$7,0004.914.916.83
Ryan Newman$6,8005.375.793.53$7,6006.406.526.08
Corey Lajoie$6,7007.806.883.49$5,50010.409.457.74
Ryan Preece$6,5006.838.173.17$6,4007.918.936.38
Ty Dillon$6,3008.457.044.21$6,0009.498.657.64
Cole Custer$6,2004.764.764.31$7,2005.715.716.58
Chris Buescher$6,0007.025.924.58$5,5009.398.398.88
John H. Nemechek$5,6009.559.554.58$5,00011.8211.829.13

Tier 4

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Matt Kenseth$5,900-3.73-3.733.89$6,2000.030.037.50
Daniel Suarez$5,8002.464.734.34$4,5006.208.909.90
Michael McDowell$5,7008.771.955.22$4,50012.165.3511.00
Justin Haley$5,400 4.076.26    
James Davison$5,300  1.71$4,000  6.39
Timmy Hill$5,2003.563.562.71$4,0007.257.257.33
Joey Gase$5,0001.704.482.44$4,0004.847.868.00
Quin Houff$4,9004.594.592.85$4,0008.888.888.56
Brennan Poole$4,8000.990.993.48$4,0004.984.989.08