Martinsville is up for some mid-week short track racing this week and it’s hard to not be excited about this race. The “Paperclip” as it’s known because of its shape when you see an aerial view of the shortest track in the Cup series. It’s also one of the flattest tracks on the schedule as the only banking is only on the outside of the corners and aren’t used all that much. Typically speaking, drivers that start up front here lead a ton of laps and finish near the front as you’ll see in the finish position range table below. There are also plenty of chances for drivers to move up through the field as the last few races have seen more than half the field move up and 11 total drivers last year moved up double digit spots.

This year Goodyear is bringing a new tire for the race that should allow for more tire wear than we typically see at Martinsville and it’s half concrete, half asphalt surface. Whether we get that or not is yet to be seen but if we get it it will add a new wrinkle to the race with saving tires over the longer runs.

In the last 10 Martinsville race, the manufactures have seen varying amounts of success:

The winning percentages based on starting positions over the history of Martinsville Speedway:

Positions

Winning %

Wins

From the Pole

14.8

21

From the Front Row

28.2

40

From the Top-5

54.9

78

From the Top-10

75.4

107

From Outside the Top-20

7.0

10

Out of 142 total races

Core Drivers By Tier

Tier 1 - Brad Keselowski

  • Keselowski is the cheapest driver on DK in Tier 1 and has the strongest history here in that tier.

  • In the last eight races here, he’s posted seven top-five finishes with an average finish of 3.9.

  • He’s been running near the front of the pack pretty much each week since the season restarted.

Tier 2 - Ryan Blaney

  • Blaney is on the pole here with gives him a great shot of leading laps

  • He’s also finished in the top-five three times in the last four races here

  • Blaney has also finished in the top-five in the last five races since the season restarted

Tier 3 - Ty Dillon

  • Dillon has been very solid here with two finishes between 11-15 in the last four races at the Clip

  • His +7.5 PD is the best in the field in that span with an average finish of 18.5

  • Dillon has posted 5.5x value the last two Martinsville races and he’s posted the best FD value in this tier.

Contrarian Play - William Byron

  • Byron hasn’t had the strongest finishes the last few races but at Martinsville, he did well in this package last year.

  • He finished P2 after starting P11 and finished P22 after starting P35 in both races showing he can move up

  • His crew chief still knows how to make cars fast here and he’s had a lot of success with that.

Fade - Jimmie Johnson

  • Johnson is just too expensive for the value he’s capable of bringing

  • The last few races here haven’t been good for him with just two 11-15 place finishes and that’s it.

  • He does have PD upside but only really to move to about 15th and that just doesn’t bring the value for the price tag.

Last Four Races At Martinsville

Tier 1

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Jimmie JohnsonHendrick421.817.422.3-0.50020
Denny HamlinJGR43.855.8-23010
Chase ElliottHendrick412.313.913.5-1.21200
Kevin HarvickSHR411.58.774.51300
Kyle BuschJGR47.35.25.81.53010
Martin Truex JrJGR411.35.847.33100
Joey LoganoPenske466.78.5-2.51201
Brad KeselowskiPenske47.36.34.82.53100
 
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Jimmie Johnson40.04.82.450.7%17.370.5464.5
Denny Hamlin443.046.834.197.1%22.3113.1500.0
Chase Elliott412.329.517.864.3%18.592.1486.3
Kevin Harvick40.018.09.097.6%25.597.2500.0
Kyle Busch431.043.329.499.5%22.5113.4500.0
Martin Truex Jr4121.560.360.595.8%19.3115.4500.0
Joey Logano478.519.829.592.9%22.0106.6500.0
Brad Keselowski4122.034.547.893.8%23.8114.6500.0

Tier 2

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Kurt BuschGanassi415.310.98.86.50220
Alex BowmanHendrick416.317.517-0.70111
Clint BowyerSHR478.916-91100
Ryan BlaneyPenske487803001
Matt KensethGanassi12422.32310000
William ByronHendrick41919.520.8-1.81001
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Kurt Busch40.00.00.077.2%27.091.3500.0
Alex Bowman40.07.53.837.5%17.071.1498.5
Clint Bowyer454.033.530.381.0%21.0104.8487.0
Ryan Blaney436.320.819.481.8%12.5107.1500.0
Matt Kenseth10.00.00.00.0%0.056.2499.0
William Byron40.012.86.427.0%6.570.8465.0

Tier 3

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Christopher BellLFR         
Bubba WallacePetty42725.624.52.50011
Tyler ReddickRCR 40 40     
Daniel SuarezGaunt412.315.117-4.70201
Matt DiBenedettoWood Bros.422.523.226-3.50002
Ryan NewmanRoush421.316.3156.30201
Ricky Stenhouse JrJTG418.824.824-5.20011
Erik JonesJGR41520.423.3-8.30002
Aric AlmirolaSHR45.311.417.8-12.50120
Ty DillonGermain42620.918.57.50020
Austin DillonRCR422.321.423.3-10010
Ryan PreeceJTG21819.717.50.50002
John H. NemechekFront Row        
 
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Christopher Bell   0.0    
Bubba Wallace40.01.50.810.8%8.352.8494
Tyler Reddick   0.0    
Daniel Suarez40.05.32.653.3%26.077.4496
Matt DiBenedetto40.02.51.323.1%9.356.6485
Ryan Newman40.07.53.842.8%16.874.4499
Ricky Stenhouse Jr40.01.80.97.7%8.850.9495
Erik Jones40.03.51.830.1%12.367.4495
Aric Almirola40.019.39.680.7%25.090.2466
Ty Dillon40.04.52.319.1%8.561.8499
Austin Dillon40.011.35.639.3%17.368.5496
Ryan Preece20.00.50.321.2%15.060.9500
John H. Nemechek   0.0   

Tier 4

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Cole CusterSHR         
Corey LajoieGo Fas23427.725.58.50001
Chris BuescherRoush416.819.917.3-0.50020
Reed SorensonTBR13133.633-20000
Timmy HillMBM238.537.3362.50000
Michael McDowellFront Row41825.525-70000
Garrett SmithleySpire13435.53220000
Joey GasePWR13035.635-50000
Quin HouffStarCom 40 40     
Brennan PoolePremium 40 40     
JJ YeleyRick Ware33631.43060000
David StarrRick Ware        
  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Cole Custer   0.0    
Corey Lajoie20.00.00.00.9%1.541.6495
Chris Buescher40.00.30.114.6%10.563.9499
Reed Sorenson10.00.00.00.0%0.033.3452
Timmy Hill20.02.51.30.0%0.026.6 
Michael McDowell40.00.50.30.9%0.548.8496
Garrett Smithley10.01.00.50.0%0.027.5 
Joey Gase10.09.04.50.0%0.030.9467
Quin Houff   0.0    
Brennan Poole   0.0    
JJ Yeley30.00.00.00.1%0.035.8493
David Starr   0.0   

Top-20 Drivers Over Last 8 Martinsville Races

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Brad Keselowski88.86.13.94.97100
Kyle Busch88.6444.67010
Martin Truex Jr88.46.67.414202
Denny Hamlin86.19.812.8-6.74110
Ryan Blaney88.810.412.9-4.13103
Joey Logano84.1810.3-6.22311
Kevin Harvick813.410.611.32.12303
Chase Elliott88.612.114.5-5.92211
Clint Bowyer812.414.515.9-3.52200
Austin Dillon824.417.916.57.92021
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Matt Kenseth518.410126.41210
Jimmie Johnson819.413.215.83.61140
William Byron41919.520.8-1.81001
Ryan Newman816.515.313.530412
Kurt Busch816.513.716.10.40230
Daniel Suarez613.818.319.2-5.40211
Ricky Stenhouse Jr821.625.923.5-1.90211
Aric Almirola810.617.120.3-9.70132
Alex Bowman416.317.517-0.70111
Chris Buescher824.323.520.14.20030
  LLFLDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts/ Race/RaceRating
Brad Keselowski889.055.550.0500.63117.6
Kyle Busch8117.155.056.8500.63124
Martin Truex Jr884.440.041.1500.63108.1
Denny Hamlin831.432.324.0464.8898.6
Ryan Blaney818.112.610.8500.1394.2
Joey Logano852.026.426.2500.50103.4
Kevin Harvick89.020.612.6500.3892.9
Chase Elliott824.029.420.7493.3893.5
Clint Bowyer827.025.819.7493.1389.2
Austin Dillon80.08.14.1498.3875.9
  LLFLDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts/ Race/RaceRating
Matt Kenseth544.219.620.9500.8096.8
Jimmie Johnson814.510.99.1482.8886.1
William Byron40.012.86.4465.0070.8
Ryan Newman80.05.93.0500.0078.2
Kurt Busch80.07.13.6474.6381.7
Daniel Suarez60.04.32.2496.5070.9
Ricky Stenhouse Jr80.02.91.5437.3852.6
Aric Almirola80.09.84.9446.6375
Alex Bowman40.07.53.8498.5071.1
Chris Buescher80.00.10.1498.2557.1

Momentum

The driver and team momentum tables have been made to match the last four and eight race tables with range of finish instead of the prior wins, top-fives, top-10s, and top-15 columns. They will also show those stats for the last five races of this season prior to the current week’s race to show you who’s been hot and who’s been cold.

Driver

Tier 1

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Jimmie Johnson523.611.46.217.422101.28.24.496.4
Denny Hamlin515.613.9114.6300128.616.415.492.5
Chase Elliott59.26.514.4-5.2210041.62623.4109.8
Kevin Harvick51586.28.8221044.822.222.3108.7
Kyle Busch51312.38.44.6400021.419.215.098.2
Martin Truex Jr510.88.39.81130133.631.424.1107.0
Joey Logano54.88.111.4-6.6031019.81311.598.2
Brad Keselowski58.811.64.44.4320029.61715.9100.7

Tier 2

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Kurt Busch511.414.28.23.21310119.27.487.2
Alex Bowman510.413.223.6-13.20012431920.388.9
Clint Bowyer518.215.720-1.8100225.817.415.287.0
Ryan Blaney51213.514.4-2.4300012.813.810.1100.3
Matt Kenseth514.820.322.2-7.4001103.81.969.7
William Byron515.617.417.2-1.601202.284.681.3

Tier 3

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Christopher Bell522.616.413.88.8021100.80.475.5
Bubba Wallace528.221.324.63.601010.60.40.463.0
Tyler Reddick515.417.617.6-2.20121021.071.1
Daniel Suarez532.827.826.66.200010.20.40.345.6
Matt DiBenedetto514.816.119.6-4.8011142.82.475.6
Ryan Newman51718.117.6-0.6003112.21.471.6
Ricky Stenhouse Jr523.619.720.23.410100.242.171.2
Erik Jones513.213.515.2-220105.4148.488.8
Aric Almirola511.814.217.8-6010307.43.780.6
Ty Dillon52025.828-800011.60.40.649.9
Austin Dillon511.813.412-0.2022101.20.683.0
Ryan Preece522.823.824.8-200100.21.40.859.0
John H. Nemechek515.623.320.2-4.600210.23.21.759.9

Tier 4

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Cole Custer522.423.423.2-0.8001200.60.357.8
Corey Lajoie52725.925.21.8000100.40.251.9
Chris Buescher518.821.520.2-1.4001002.21.160.4
Reed Sorenson14036.6373    000.028.3
Timmy Hill5353431.83.2000101.60.834.9
Michael McDowell522.821.819.8300120.20.60.458.0
Garrett Smithley534.435.133.80.6000000.20.131.7
Joey Gase531.636.235.2-3.6000000.40.229.3
Quin Houff532.633.230.62000000.20.135.9
Brennan Poole531.830.232-0.200000.20.40.340.7
JJ Yeley530.832.532.2-1.4000000.20.136.0
David Starr           0.0

Team

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LapsFast
Team#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20LedLaps
Chip Ganassi Racing1013.117.315.2-2.11321110130
Front Row Motorsports1019.222.620.0-0.80033438
Hendrick Motorsports2014.712.115.4-0.7444217601224
Joe Gibbs Racing2013.212.011.12.11031217801620
JTG Daugherty Racing1023.221.822.50.71020454
Richard Childress Racing1013.615.514.8-1.20342032
Roush Fenway Racing1017.919.818.9-1.000411044
Stewart-Haas Racing2016.915.316.80.133271412952
Team Penske158.511.110.1-1.56510933657

Finish Ranges By Starting Spot Ranges

This table shows where the ranges of starting spots have finished regardless of driver in those spots over the last four Atlanta races. The left-hand column shows the starting spots in groups of five and the columns going across show the finish spots in groups of five up to outside the top-20.

StartFinish Ranges
Range1-56-1011-1516-2020+
1-594124
6-1066233
11-1532654
16-2013646
21-25042311
26-30002117
31-35111017
36-40000210
Total2020202072

Weekly Rankings

The Race Hist column is based on average finish in the last four races, Recent Form is ranked on average finish of the momentum tables, Track Hist is ranked on of average finish over the last eight races at that track, Type Hist is ranked on the average finish of the similar races table. The DFS columns are ranked on the values provided by those drivers over the last two and five races at this event based on the salaries on each site this week. DK is ranked across all tiers while FD is ranked from best to worst values in each tier to even out the wide range of salaries and narrow point differences.

Tier 1

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track Hist
Jimmie Johnson$12,500$10,20019230827511
Denny Hamlin$11,900$12,00037103827
Chase Elliott$11,500$12,50091117716810
Kevin Harvick$11,200$13,000521541365
Kyle Busch$10,700$14,50035116372
Martin Truex Jr$10,300$14,0001612233
Joey Logano$9,900$12,00078215544
Brad Keselowski$9,500$13,5002121111

Tier 2

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track Hist
Kurt Busch$9,200$10,300849214213
Alex Bowman$8,900$10,500122724422515
Clint Bowyer$8,600$10,00011202356312
Ryan Blaney$8,400$11,50061143448
Matt Kenseth$8,000$7,800202531 1716
William Byron$7,600$9,50018143119620

Tier 3

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track Hist
Christopher Bell$8,200$7,000401031 33 40
Bubba Wallace$7,800$5,00024288225325
Tyler Reddick$7,400$8,200331531 33 40
Daniel Suarez$7,100$3,500123125120117
Matt DiBenedetto$7,000$8,0002718188321027
Ryan Newman$6,800$7,000101566759
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$6,700$6,200232119523624
Erik Jones$6,500$9,000211328930922
Aric Almirola$6,400$8,5001617261021819
Ty Dillon$6,200$5,00017327310221
Austin Dillon$6,100$7,3002195712714
Ryan Preece$5,700$5,500152913411416
John H. Nemechek$5,500$5,500402131 33 40

Tier 4

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track Hist
Cole Custer$5,900$6,000402631 33 40
Corey Lajoie$5,800$3,500263014218326
Chris Buescher$5,600$6,50014211279818
Reed Sorenson$5,300$3,000304227529430
Timmy Hill$5,200$3,000323522428731
Michael McDowell$5,100$4,000251929624623
Garrett Smithley$5,000$3,000293820326229
Joey Gase$4,900$3,000314131 31532
Quin Houff$4,800$3,000333331 33 40
Brennan Poole$4,700$3,000333631 33 40
JJ Yeley$4,600$3,000283716115128
David Starr$4,500 40 31 33 40

DFS Value Averages

This replaces the DFS Scoring Averages table that had been here. Instead, we have the DFS Value figures instead. We have taken their points scored over the last two and five races on each site and averaged those out and then divided that average by their salary divided by 1,000. For example, Jimmie Johnson’s FD value over the last two races is 4.53 meaning he’s averaged 46.2 FD points the last two races (4.53 x 10.2 (his salary divided by 1,000)=46.2. The Seas. Avg column shows you the value they’ve provided this season based on their average points per race divided by the salary for this week’s race so staying with Johnson, he’s averaging 50.6 points per race which at $10,200 gives him a 4.96x value on average. Keep in mind that it’s not all about value when building a lineup on FD as salary dictates how many points that value equates to.

Tier 1

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Jimmie Johnson$12,5000.142.363.21$10,2004.536.824.96
Denny Hamlin$11,9004.965.474.07$12,0007.277.335.08
Chase Elliott$11,5003.824.274.20$12,5005.205.964.52
Kevin Harvick$11,2004.604.505.91$13,0006.756.705.22
Kyle Busch$10,7004.867.733.52$14,5005.846.563.74
Martin Truex Jr$10,30013.459.513.91$14,0007.987.213.71
Joey Logano$9,9002.875.954.08$12,0006.157.024.76
Brad Keselowski$9,50013.2610.225.16$13,5008.617.434.44

Tier 2

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Kurt Busch$9,2005.274.404.24$10,3008.597.885.51
Alex Bowman$8,9002.113.374.01$10,5006.337.004.41
Clint Bowyer$8,6002.595.854.12$10,0006.127.825.01
Ryan Blaney$8,4007.116.204.20$11,5007.837.444.11
Matt Kenseth$8,000 4.252.49$7,800 9.936.46
William Byron$7,6007.203.673.21$9,5008.926.964.67

Tier 3

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Christopher Bell$8,200  3.11$7,000  6.78
Bubba Wallace$7,8005.322.923.69$5,00016.3013.429.57
Tyler Reddick$7,400  3.98$8,200  5.88
Daniel Suarez$7,1002.043.633.41$3,50018.3320.6612.98
Matt DiBenedetto$7,0003.751.634.03$8,0009.036.556.49
Ryan Newman$6,8006.105.634.85$7,00011.4211.307.68
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$6,7003.623.243.92$6,20011.4411.067.05
Erik Jones$6,5001.501.755.35$9,0006.616.875.91
Aric Almirola$6,4001.883.484.10$8,5006.027.625.81
Ty Dillon$6,2005.524.873.47$5,00015.0814.548.48
Austin Dillon$6,1007.094.755.85$7,30010.859.647.41
Ryan Preece$5,7004.784.782.89$5,50013.4113.417.27
John H. Nemechek$5,500  5.18$5,500  9.15

Tier 4

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Cole Custer$5,900  3.57$6,000  7.27
Corey Lajoie$5,8004.663.914.21$3,50019.7718.8512.98
Chris Buescher$5,6004.824.885.08$6,50011.4211.327.88
Reed Sorenson$5,3001.701.983.25$3,00017.4018.5311.63
Timmy Hill$5,2002.692.263.01$3,00017.8315.7211.19
Michael McDowell$5,1000.882.945.19$4,00014.2516.0712.20
Garrett Smithley$5,0002.902.901.82$3,00019.5719.5710.09
Joey Gase$4,900 1.732.82$3,000 16.7311.08
Quin Houff$4,800  2.59$3,000  10.84
Brennan Poole$4,700  4.05$3,000  13.23
JJ Yeley$4,6004.354.353.37$3,00021.4721.0912.60
David Starr$4,500  0.00