One of the biggest races of the year is on tap this weekend with the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. This race is in its traditional spot on the calendar being on Sunday of Memorial Day weekend and under the lights for 400 laps of high-paced action. The Coca-Cola 600 is also the longest race of the season at 600 miles making it the best endurance test of a driver and machine on the schedule.

This will be a long race...it’s 400 laps and it’s the only one with four stages which means extra bonus points for the hunt for the playoffs but it also means that fatigue will take a toll on drivers, especially with this recent stretch of races. Listen to my segment on Alarm After Hours from Thursday or on the Fantasy Alarm Show on Friday as well as the podcast that Dan and I will have out to get strategies for how to deal with the fatigue factor.

Qualifying for Sunday’s race will happen on Sunday afternoon on track and so final roster decisions should be made at that point. We still won’t get practices but we should be able to deduce from the Darlington races and track history and history in this package how the drivers will do. The tire combination will also be new here, though they’ve run each side of tires previously. The left side tires were run at Kansas last October on Cup cars and the right-side tires were just run at Darlington for them as well. Both Xfinity and Cup have run these tires independently before but not together in one set in one race.

Core Drivers By Tier

Martin Truex Jr. - Tier 1

  • He won this race two of the last four years and has the best average finish of 1.8 in the field.

  • Truex also has the most laps led, fast laps, laps completed, and most run in the top-15 of any driver in the field.

  • The 19-car was a strong long-run car at Darlington which is needed here and comes at a discount on DK.

Jimmie Johnson - Tier 2

  • There is no other race that Hendrick takes more seriously than the Coke 600 and Johnson’s won it three times.

  • He has the best average finish in the last four runnings of anyone in this tier at 8.3 with a 6.5-position place differential mark.

  • Johnson’s fastest laps and top-15 rate both rank third in the field and he’s completed every lap in the last four races.

Bubba Wallace - Tier 3

  • Wallace has moved up an average of six spots per race in his two Coke 600s with a top-16 finish.

  • The race on Wednesday run under the lights saw him move up five spots and finish 16th at Darlington.

  • Three times this year (not including Daytona), he’s hit at least 6x value.

Contrarian Plays - Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Daniel Suarez

  • The two of them have had rough starts to the year but they both have solid histories at this event with three combined top-15s in the last four races.

  • They have managed to run all but three laps in the last four races as well.

  • Both have top-four driver ratings in the Tier 3 group of drivers which is 16 drivers deep.

Fade - William Byron

  • Byron has specialized in going backward at this race in his two tries with a -13.0 PD mark.

  • He ranks 28th or worse in scoring averages for DK and FD over the last two and five races here.

  • He’s only hit 5x value once in five races since Daytona at his salaries.

Last Four Coca-Cola 600s

Tier 1

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Kyle Busch45.55.69.8-4.313333
Kevin Harvick413.314.215-1.701233
Denny Hamlin48.38.47.3103334
Martin Truex Jr49.54.11.87.724444
Brad Keselowski410.315.916.8-6.502223
Joey Logano48.512.513.5-501222
Chase Elliott412.316.915.3-301233
Alex Bowman22011.381200222
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15QPAvg.Laps.LC
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRate/RaceRatingComp/Race
Kyle Busch4519129.826265.592.9%48.5119.71592398.0
Kevin Harvick45914.88220.569.0%52.893.41283320.8
Denny Hamlin44010.07819.586.4%59.0105.11600400.0
Martin Truex Jr4741185.331478.596.3%59.8135.91600400.0
Brad Keselowski4780.0670.064.1%48.585.21217304.3
Joey Logano4133.34010.059.4%45.886.91598399.5
Chase Elliott44310.8235.857.9%52.581.21218304.5
Alex Bowman284.0105.038.9%84.591.7800400.0

Tier 2

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Jimmie Johnson414.87.28.36.502334
William Byron21120.524-1300111
Kurt Busch4139.911.81.200333
Erik Jones38.320.522-13.700112
Clint Bowyer417.816.518.3-0.500022
Ryan Blaney41315.623.3-10.300011
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15QPAvg.Laps.LC
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRate/RaceRatingComp/Race
Jimmie Johnson44010.012230.592.9%67.3105.81600400.0
William Byron23115.563.025.0%42.070.5539269.5
Kurt Busch410.3133.387.5%61.092.71596399.0
Erik Jones300.03010.039.2%43.372.4821273.7
Clint Bowyer400.030.854.4%36.872.41591397.8
Ryan Blaney420.5246.046.6%31.585.51471367.8

Tier 3

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Tyler Reddick          
Matt Kenseth31612.69.36.701223
Aric Almirola310.315.716.7-6.400022
Ricky Stenhouse Jr49.513.711.3-1.801124
Matt DiBenedetto430.533.736.3-5.800000
Austin Dillon416.52020.3-3.811122
Ross Chastain23030.530000000
Chris Buescher422.823.923-0.200111
Christopher Bell          
Ryan Newman413.815.517.5-3.700123
Cole Custer          
John H. Nemechek          
Daniel Suarez31216.614.7-2.700013
Ryan Preece12428.131-700000
Bubba Wallace226.523.220.5600001
Ty Dillon32526.226.7-1.700000
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15QPAvg.Laps.LC
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRate/RaceRatingComp/Race
Tyler Reddick          
Matt Kenseth300.03210.745.7%22.091.21199399.7
Aric Almirola300.051.738.4%39.779.6799266.3
Ricky Stenhouse Jr420.5102.570.0%61.583.41599399.8
Matt DiBenedetto400.030.80.1%0.036.5836209.0
Austin Dillon420.5143.550.3%35.073.31463365.8
Ross Chastain200.010.51.0%4.540.3532266.0
Chris Buescher400.082.011.7%18.360.11581395.3
Christopher Bell          
Ryan Newman400.020.558.4%48.574.91544386.0
Cole Custer          
John H. Nemechek          
Daniel Suarez300.0248.031.9%52.076.31198399.3
Ryan Preece100.000.00.3%1.047.3343343.0
Bubba Wallace200.021.06.7%23.062.3795397.5
Ty Dillon300.0110.01.8%8.050.91038346.0

Tier 4

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Michael McDowell426.326.223.3300002
Corey Lajoie334.326.923.31100011
Brennan Poole          
Timmy Hill23634.530.55.500000
BJ McLeod23732.531600000
Garrett Smithley          
Joey Gase14035.232800000
JJ Yeley236.533.6324.500000
Quin Houff13928.6281100000
Gray Gaulding23330.929400000
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15QPAvg.Laps.LC
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRate/RaceRatingComp/Race
Michael McDowell400.051.32.4%6.052.11587396.8
Corey Lajoie300.041.32.0%7.749.81111370.3
Brennan Poole          
Timmy Hill200.000.00.1%0.031.3767383.5
BJ McLeod200.021.00.1%0.037.1768384.0
Garrett Smithley          
Joey Gase100.011.00.0%0.030.9334334.0
JJ Yeley200.031.50.2%4.036.6586293.0
Quin Houff100.000.00.6%0.042.8396396.0
Gray Gaulding200.000.00.0%0.037.6781390.5

Top-20 Drivers Over Last 8 Charlotte Races

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Martin Truex Jr610.35.33.56.835566
Jimmie Johnson615.86.96.8913556
Kyle Busch65912.3-7.313444
Austin Dillon616.318.521.5-5.211123
Denny Hamlin67.27.710.5-3.304445
Matt Kenseth513.411.58.25.202345
Chase Elliott69.813.516-6.202344
Kevin Harvick69.513.416.8-7.302344
Brad Keselowski611.214.414.8-3.602335
Ryan Newman614.517.819-4.501234
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Joey Logano61216.919.3-7.301222
Ricky Stenhouse Jr612.515.113-0.501135
Kurt Busch613.810.212.8100444
Alex Bowman31418.118.3-4.300222
Daniel Suarez412.51612.5000124
Ryan Blaney614.215.222-7.800122
Erik Jones415.82220.8-500113
Chris Buescher62322.421200113
William Byron21120.524-1300111
Aric Almirola517.61817.8-0.200023

 

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsLapsLCAvg.
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceComp/RaceRating
Martin Truex Jr6832138.735258.72271378.5127.1
Jimmie Johnson619532.518330.52271378.5108.8
Kyle Busch654290.331352.22257376.2112.3
Austin Dillon620.3264.32058343.074.5
Denny Hamlin613722.811619.32245374.2104.5
Matt Kenseth551.05410.81870374.092
Chase Elliott615826.310818.01813302.293.4
Kevin Harvick622036.717929.81775295.898.6
Brad Keselowski67813.07212.01888314.785.7
Ryan Newman610.250.81921320.273
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsLapsLCAvg.
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceComp/RaceRating
Joey Logano6162.7447.32187364.577.1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr620.3132.22269378.279.2
Kurt Busch610.2183.02267377.889.9
Alex Bowman382.7155.0861287.078.4
Daniel Suarez400.0256.31535383.878.9
Ryan Blaney620.3264.32115352.582.6
Erik Jones400.0328.01158289.568.6
Chris Buescher600.081.32252375.360.7
William Byron23115.563.0539269.570.5
Aric Almirola500.0255.01865373.073.3

Top-20 Drivers At Similar Races (Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Texas)

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Martin Truex Jr1613.78.36.86.949141515
Kevin Harvick168.27.98.3-0.138121414
Kyle Busch169.59.29.50.036101114
Brad Keselowski169.313.214.1-4.827101112
Denny Hamlin168.912.913.9-5.0168912
Jimmie Johnson1615.612.714.41.2157912
Alex Bowman1116.11512.53.612479
Austin Dillon1614.816.818.7-3.9111910
Joey Logano1611.99.49.42.505111213
Chase Elliott161412.612.51.50471214
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Clint Bowyer161516.315.8-0.80451010
Erik Jones1313.314.412.80.50371011
Ryan Blaney1613.813.316.3-2.5035810
Kurt Busch1610.18.810.2-0.102111315
Matt Kenseth713.413.19.73.702557
Daniel Suarez1312.416.515.4-3.002269
Aric Almirola1514.116.117.3-3.201479
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1612.916.617.0-4.1011612
William Byron1014.315.716.0-1.700348
Chris Buescher1623.722.521.91.800225

 

  LedFast LapsLapsLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RaceComp/RaceRating
Martin Truex Jr1656.236.44998312.4111.8
Kevin Harvick1682.640.64934308.4115.6
Kyle Busch1655.937.25244327.8107
Brad Keselowski1615.314.64376273.594.2
Denny Hamlin168.212.04938308.691.1
Jimmie Johnson1620.814.04951309.491.8
Alex Bowman1110.58.13549322.683.3
Austin Dillon161.82.64998312.474
Joey Logano166.510.35246327.997.5
Chase Elliott1612.410.64845302.889.6
  LedFast LapsLapsLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RaceComp/RaceRating
Clint Bowyer163.87.35138321.178.4
Erik Jones1387.64265328.185
Ryan Blaney169.811.55012313.389.7
Kurt Busch1611.19.65245327.897
Matt Kenseth76.78.72326332.392.8
Daniel Suarez132.76.94596353.577.8
Aric Almirola1511.49.74681312.180.2
Ricky Stenhouse Jr160.93.84940308.874.8
William Byron106.44.73058305.876.5
Chris Buescher1601.15220326.358.5

Momentum

Tier 1

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLedFastAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520/Race/RaceRating
Kyle Busch2211.510.39.71.831115161834.524.8106.1
Kevin Harvick227.577.10.441117202048.527114.5
Denny Hamlin2211.310.7101.34711152013.510.597.2
Martin Truex Jr2217.411.310.56.92713161916.41798.5
Brad Keselowski229.413.212.4-3210131418171293.1
Joey Logano2211.29.18.92.3391316212511.5103.5
Chase Elliott2213.912.914.1-0.20710131711.311.991.7
Alex Bowman2213.21211.41.8258131914.913.292.2

Tier 2

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLedFastAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520/Race/RaceRating
Jimmie Johnson2212.915.117-4.103710166.34.881.5
William Byron2214.712.514.8-0.103910175.97.587.0
Kurt Busch2212.212.113.2-1171214157.811.291.2
Erik Jones2215.21413.31.9181215177.17.188.0
Clint Bowyer229.213.616.1-6.9059131485.986.1
Ryan Blaney2213.111.915.3-2.202613158.61392.2

Tier 3

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLedFastAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520/Race/RaceRating
Tyler Reddick521.616.211.610002450377.6
Matt Kenseth211.515.620-8.5000110376.3
Aric Almirola221112.313.4-2.401715185.16.588.3
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2216.220.220.3-4.10237123.6367.7
Matt DiBenedetto2220.520191.50136120.40.663.1
Austin Dillon2213.916.717.7-3.801211131.12.273.8
Ross Chastain1931.729.628.73000010.10.741.5
Chris Buescher222318.215.77.30029190.5168.4
Christopher Bell42424.826.5-2.50001102.353.3
Ryan Newman2018.417.715.92.500410151.1169.9
Cole Custer417.82322.5-4.70000200.558.4
John H. Nemechek626.225.122.83.40011102.752.8
Daniel Suarez2215.616.415.9-0.304612146.64.675.4
Ryan Preece2223.323.625.1-1.80012300.354.4
Bubba Wallace2222.223.423.6-1.4012230.11.254.8
Ty Dillon2222.624.522.30.3000370.40.953.5

Tier 4

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLedFastAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520/Race/RaceRating
Michael McDowell2221.424.524.8-3.4000030.81.452.6
Corey Lajoie2229.128.7272.1000130144.2
Brennan Poole431.829.331.30.5000000.30.840.2
Timmy Hill93837.136.31.7000000127.3
BJ McLeod1435.334.933.91.40000000.430.7
Garrett Smithley1435.335.134.11.20000000.629.9
Joey Gase1136.235.634.220000000.529.3
JJ Yeley1134.431.229.54.9000000.10.338.2
Quin Houff1333.233.632.210000000.431.7
Gray Gaulding12833.132-4000000035.2

Team

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLapsFast
Team#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520LedLaps
Chip Ganassi Racing2411.913.916.6-4.817121516187341
Front Row Motorsports2823.824.823.80.00011422115
Hendrick Motorsports8813.713.114.3-0.621834466933793291
Joe Gibbs Racing8813.911.610.93.0103351627462925227
JTG Daugherty Racing4419.821.922.7-3.0024915158145
Richard Childress Racing2717.816.514.73.1014151830140
Roush Fenway Racing4220.718.015.84.900619346784
Stewart-Haas Racing7011.414.014.8-3.441733485443122793
Team Penske6611.211.412.2-1.052132435433402409

Finish Positions By Starting Spots

Start TopTopTop
RangeW51015
1-5291416
6-1006711
11-15131114
16-200037
21-251236
26-300025
31-350001
36-400000
Total4204060

DraftKings Scoring Averages

Driver20192018201720162015Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Avg.
Kyle Busch86.75209.7591.25-442.5148.2585.2530.59
Kevin Harvick41.55.551.2566.56423.5045.7563.56
Denny Hamlin44.2559.2554.54265.2551.7553.0547.59
Martin Truex Jr129.573148.75197107.75101.25131.2029.44
Brad Keselowski6445-245147.2554.5036.6541.31
Joey Logano5472539.2527.7530.5030.6042.59
Chase Elliott68.7544.5-29413656.6332.2542.03
Alex Bowman49.553.5  2351.5042.0040.06
Jimmie Johnson43.56054.2582.25-2151.7543.8031.06
William Byron37.75-13   12.3812.3824.84
Driver20192018201720162015Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Avg.
Kurt Busch2.54445.7548.59823.2547.7533.69
Erik Jones-2021.538.5  0.7513.3337.56
Clint Bowyer4.548.525.5242826.5026.1035.56
Ryan Blaney47-19.53.523.5-2413.756.1030.84
Tyler Reddick      0.0033.21
Matt Kenseth 27536053.527.0048.3817
Aric Almirola25.528 123126.7524.1329.38
Ricky Stenhouse Jr43.53829.518.5340.7526.5025.18
Matt DiBenedetto-71.501519-2.755.7033.36
Austin Dillon-18.5-9.568.55024-14.0022.9035
Driver20192018201720162015Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Avg.
Ross Chastain7.521   14.2514.2524.6
Chris Buescher55533-6 30.0021.7532.29
Christopher Bell      0.0018.57
Ryan Newman30.5-204338.5515.2528.6037.7
Cole Custer      0.0019.29
John H. Nemechek      0.0028.14
Daniel Suarez15.53244.5  23.7530.6722.96
Ryan Preece6    6.006.008.36
Bubba Wallace23.536.5   30.0030.0033.32
Ty Dillon26.5224  24.2517.5029.14
Driver20192018201720162015Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Avg.
Michael McDowell2438.527810.531.2521.6026.61
Corey LaJoie502720  38.5032.3327.32
Brennan Poole      0.0020.89
Timmy Hill 1622  16.0019.0014.64
BJ McLeod2316   19.5019.5012
Garrett Smithley      0.007.9
Joey Gase20.5    20.5020.5020.21
JJ Yeley 826.5 9.58.0014.6719.96
Quin Houff27    27.0027.0012.29
Gray Gaulding 1622  16.0019.008

FanDuel Scoring Averages

Driver20192018201720162015Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Avg.
Kyle Busch85.9120.786.338.773103.3080.9246.30
Kevin Harvick69.98.8748374.139.3561.9661.84
Denny Hamlin67.678.977.57776.873.2575.5657.41
Martin Truex Jr101.186.5103.8122.291.693.80101.0442.33
Brad Keselowski70.477.7-10.67673.874.0557.4650.01
Joey Logano82.550.160.968.664.266.3065.2654.28
Chase Elliott85.375.4-12.67567.980.3558.2047.96
Alex Bowman77.881  57.279.4072.0048.18
Jimmie Johnson76.5856680.524.580.7566.5043.66
William Byron71.16.9   39.0039.0039.10
Driver20192018201720162015Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Avg.
Kurt Busch45.67778.178.584.861.3072.8048.24
Erik Jones-8.854.473  22.8039.5351.23
Clint Bowyer48.776.964.55962.962.8062.4048.73
Ryan Blaney71.218.848.159.716.145.0042.7841.26
Tyler Reddick       47.09
Matt Kenseth 63.9778478.163.9075.7541.70
Aric Almirola65.565.9 51.565.965.7062.2048.03
Ricky Stenhouse Jr7872.465.26038.275.2062.7639.10
Matt DiBenedetto0.726.714.449.350.213.7028.2652.09
Austin Dillon23.530.893.77762.527.1557.5046.89
Driver20192018201720162015Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Avg.
Ross Chastain17.957.3   37.6037.6041.54
Chris Buescher8345.965.435.3 64.4557.4048.63
Christopher Bell       36.49
Ryan Newman6625.9767381.545.9564.4849.30
Cole Custer       40.00
John H. Nemechek       44.30
Daniel Suarez56.963.474.5  60.1564.9339.33
Ryan Preece40.8    40.8040.8028.86
Bubba Wallace57.668.9   63.2563.2549.41
Ty Dillon60.259.424.7  59.8048.1045.77
Driver20192018201720162015Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Avg.
Michael McDowell59.368.462.945.147.963.8556.7243.59
Corey LaJoie7858.144.5  68.0560.2043.50
Brennan Poole       37.11
Timmy Hill 49.353.9  49.3051.6026.64
BJ McLeod5547.8   51.4051.4017.58
Garrett Smithley       24.44
Joey Gase46.4    46.4046.4036.64
JJ Yeley 23.158 42.223.1041.1037.28
Quin Houff58.1    58.1058.1025.63
Gray Gaulding 50.355.8  50.3053.0527.60

Weekly Rankings

Tier 1

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Track HistType Hist
Kyle Busch$11,500$14,00063112254
Kevin Harvick$11,200$12,5001112028615112
Denny Hamlin$10,800$11,800245834410
Martin Truex Jr$10,600$13,70015221111
Brad Keselowski$10,300$11,00014847920911
Joey Logano$10,000$11,300921110138153
Chase Elliott$9,700$11,5001212341117107
Alex Bowman$9,400$12,000367586137

Tier 2

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Track HistType Hist
Jimmie Johnson$9,200$10,7004195377212
William Byron$9,000$10,0002413282931322315
Kurt Busch$8,700$9,6008921175576
Erik Jones$8,500$9,000191032333031189
Clint Bowyer$8,300$8,5001618171618131614
Ryan Blaney$8,100$10,2002114272632282116

Tier 3

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Track HistType Hist
Tyler Reddick$7,900$6,800407404035404040
Matt Kenseth$7,700$8,00052214134335
Aric Almirola$7,500$8,3001311161119141218
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,400$6,600723861712817
Matt DiBenedetto$7,200$7,3003421333434343428
Austin Dillon$7,000$6,4001720343120192019
Ross Chastain$6,900$5,0002832263029332727
Chris Buescher$6,700$6,4002015121221211922
Christopher Bell$6,600$6,0004030404035404040
Ryan Newman$6,500$7,0001516312515101420
Cole Custer$6,400$6,2004025404035404040
John H. Nemechek$6,300$5,5004026404035404021
Daniel Suarez$6,100$4,50010161918129613
Ryan Preece$6,000$4,5003029302733302826
Bubba Wallace$5,900$5,0001827121514111723
Ty Dillon$5,700$5,0002524181927262524

Tier 4

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Track HistType Hist
Michael McDowell$5,600$4,0002128101422222225
Corey Lajoie$5,400$3,50021319910162429
Brennan Poole$5,300$3,0004034404035404040
Timmy Hill$5,100$3,0002943242325242935
BJ McLeod$5,000$3,0003040232124252932
Garrett Smithley$4,900$3,0004041404035404034
Joey Gase$4,800$3,5003242222423273236
JJ Yeley$4,700$3,0003233293228293231
Quin Houff$4,600$3,5002636142016182633
Gray Gaulding$4,500$3,0002735242225232930