We’re back baby!

After the off week for the Easter holiday, we get perhaps the most unpredictable race of the year to come back to with a 500-miler around the asphalt surface that comprises Talladega Superspeedway. The mystique and lore surrounding this track are legendary but so are the crashes it’s known for as the term “The Big One” is literally used in the advertising for this race every year.

Opened in 1969, it was purpose-built to be the biggest, fastest, meanest track ever built and it’s pretty safe to say that it accomplished its goal. At 2.66 miles per lap, it’s the longest track on the NASCAR circuit and it is also the steepest banked one too with turns that are banked from 32.4-33 degrees and a Tri-Oval that is tilted toward the infield at 16.5 degrees. All of this means that there is a ton of speed at this track even when there were restrictor plates on the cars they could still hit speeds of near 210 mph. This year the aero package will get rid of the restrictor plate but because of the reduced horsepower, 550 hp, and the added downforce, including a larger spoiler this week that is nine inches high, the effect on the cars should be similar to having a restrictor plate in the engine.

Starting Position of Winners

Starting Pos.Races WonStarting Pos.Races Won
114141
220152
37163
49171
55182
64191
73201
81222
95241
103271
113343
122361
134  

Nearly a quarter of the race winners here have come from the pole or the outside pole (24 of 99) with another 21 winners coming from the next three starting spots in the top-five so all told 45-of-99 winners have started in the top-five.

In the last 10 races at the track, there has been an average of 7.5 cautions per race and there has also been an average of 31 lead changes in the 188-lap race.

Track Data

Drivers To Watch

Last Five GEICO 500s

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Ricky Stenhouse Jr513.61911.6212334
Denny Hamlin514.811.613.21.611244
Brad Keselowski59.616.220.2-10.611222
Joey Logano51614.224.6-8.611111
Kyle Busch416.39.87.58.802244
Chase Elliott34.712.712.7-802222
Kevin Harvick513.611.611.42.201344
Kurt Busch512.613.812.20.401344
Paul Menard58.21614.8-6.601333
Aric Almirola525.618.213.212.401244
Jimmie Johnson515.210.413.41.801233
Clint Bowyer519.223.2172.201233
Ryan Blaney415.31417.5-2.201223
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Martin Truex Jr521.41519.22.201123
Austin Dillon512.61924.8-12.201122
Ryan Newman515.425.417.4-200223
David Ragan525.82424.61.200222
Daniel Suarez210.518.514.5-400112
Alex Bowman3272017.39.700112
Kyle Larson521.823.826.4-4.600122
Matt DiBenedetto434.325.822.811.500003
Ty Dillon228.5221414.500022
Chris Buescher4312521.89.200022
Landon Cassill43226.522.59.500022
Bubba Wallace1151416-100001
Ross Chastain13533251000000
Corey LaJoie1363827900000
Jeffrey Earnhardt14037281200000
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
William Byron1171329-1200000
Brendan Gaughan331.730.729.32.400000
Michael McDowell422.321.330.8-8.500000
Erik Jones21023.536-2600000
Reed Sorenson3313437-600000
Cody Ware0000000000
Daniel Hemric0000000000
Justin Haley0000000000
Matt Tifft0000000000
Parker Kligerman0000000000
Ryan Preece0000000000
Stanton Barrett0000000000

 

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. DriverLaps
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRatingComp.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr5193.8295.839%74.7943
Denny Hamlin57615.2112.268%99.6925
Brad Keselowski59919.8224.463%87.9892
Joey Logano511122.2132.666%90.5896
Kyle Busch46115.3112.882%105.3755
Chase Elliott3279.072.365%92544
Kevin Harvick55210.4204.068%96.9943
Kurt Busch561.2173.466%90.8929
Paul Menard5193.8255.051%81.4912
Aric Almirola510.2122.442%73.3935
Jimmie Johnson55511.0122.477%96.5937
Clint Bowyer5102.0285.635%65.8920
Ryan Blaney400.0174.360%92.6724
Martin Truex Jr500.0102.061%85916
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. DriverLaps
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRatingComp.
Austin Dillon500.0234.637%70.9866
Ryan Newman540.8224.417%55.1927
David Ragan530.6255.026%62.3827
Daniel Suarez210.5126.041%67.2379
Alex Bowman3268.7186.031%74.3563
Kyle Larson591.8153.032%71.4669
Matt DiBenedetto461.5123.08%50.6665
Ty Dillon231.584.027%65.4188
Chris Buescher410.3112.816%56662
Landon Cassill400.0184.515%60640
Bubba Wallace155.022.052%79188
Ross Chastain100.022.00%36.7186
Corey LaJoie100.011.00%33.4622
Jeffrey Earnhardt10000035174
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. DriverLaps
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRatingComp.
William Byron11414.044.067%85.8165
Brendan Gaughan310.3175.78%44461
Michael McDowell410.3143.529%61.7695
Erik Jones200.021.033%57.2239
Reed Sorenson310.310.35%32.8325
Cody Ware000.000.00%00
Daniel Hemric000.000.00%00
Justin Haley000.000.00%00
Matt Tifft000.000.00%00
Parker Kligerman000.000.00%00
Ryan Preece000.000.00%00
Stanton Barrett000.000.00%00

Top-20 Drivers Over The Last 10 Races at Talladega

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Joey Logano1016.912.614.52.435566
Brad Keselowski10913.717.2-8.234555
Ricky Stenhouse Jr91217.311.20.814667
Denny Hamlin1015.314.113.41.913578
Aric Almirola1022.619.413.59.113578
Clint Bowyer1020.321.115.15.203567
Kurt Busch1010.711.712.1-1.402688
Ryan Newman1017.526.114.5302467
Kyle Busch917.916.918.2-0.302255
Chase Elliott64.210.816.2-1202234
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Kevin Harvick1016.111.813.62.501578
Paul Menard1013.415.915-1.601577
Jimmie Johnson1011.211.216.3-5.101345
Austin Dillon1016.72120.6-3.901256
Ryan Blaney91314.121.4-8.401235
Martin Truex Jr1019.518.421.6-2.101234
Landon Cassill93325.722.110.901133
David Ragan1026.525.125.60.900333
Kyle Larson1024.418.820.34.100256
Daniel Suarez41215.315-300124

 

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Joey Logano1023523.50343.4072%97.2
Brad Keselowski1022922.90404.0069%92.9
Ricky Stenhouse Jr9333.67485.3346%80.6
Denny Hamlin10989.80363.6063%92.2
Aric Almirola1020.20333.3040%74.4
Clint Bowyer10121.20626.2040%74.6
Kurt Busch1011811.80353.5074%96.2
Ryan Newman10181.80454.5014%60.4
Kyle Busch9798.78333.6759%83.9
Chase Elliott66210.33203.3375%91.4
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Kevin Harvick1010410.40373.7068%94.3
Paul Menard10212.10464.6055%81.8
Jimmie Johnson1017317.30252.5074%95.4
Austin Dillon1010.10484.8029%69.4
Ryan Blaney9364.00242.6765%86.3
Martin Truex Jr1030.30191.9050%76.9
Landon Cassill900.00273.0014%60.1
David Ragan1060.60393.9022%59.4
Kyle Larson1090.90323.2048%79.3
Daniel Suarez4123.00194.7556%73.5

Top-20 Drivers At Similar Races (Talladega and Daytona)

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Joey Logano2014.714.114.20.549111213
Brad Keselowski2014.815.721-6.245679
Denny Hamlin2016.913.812.44.538111316
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1913.617.616.2-2.6268912
Aric Almirola1923.318.715.18.22571314
Kurt Busch1913.813.814.7-0.915101212
Austin Dillon2016.119.516.5-0.41381215
Erik Jones919.321.922.7-3.412444
Kyle Busch1817.517.418.4-0.9055810
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Clint Bowyer2017.719.915.52.204101214
Kevin Harvick2013.714.917.8-4.10481012
Ryan Newman2018.524.2153.50381214
Paul Menard2017.716.816.61.10381013
Jimmie Johnson2012.914.219-6.1036810
Martin Truex Jr2019.71820.5-0.8035810
Michael McDowell1824.120.322.21.902578
Ryan Blaney1713.114.421.8-8.702469
Chris Buescher1427.123.722.74.402356
Chase Elliott135.81622-16.202246
Landon Cassill1828.625.823.55.101146

 

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Joey Logano2030215.1814.167%92.8
Brad Keselowski2039119.6663.360%85.8
Denny Hamlin2028214.1603.065%91.3
Ricky Stenhouse Jr191286.7844.445%79.6
Aric Almirola19191.0753.942%76.1
Kurt Busch191719.0673.566%90.4
Austin Dillon20180.9864.338%72.9
Erik Jones9212.3374.135%69.3
Kyle Busch181709.4593.354%81.2
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Clint Bowyer20211.1984.942%74.7
Kevin Harvick201738.7663.360%89.3
Ryan Newman20211.1964.821%62.1
Paul Menard20221.1864.352%79.8
Jimmie Johnson2028614.3623.165%88.7
Martin Truex Jr20331.7542.749%77.5
Michael McDowell18211.2814.535%67.7
Ryan Blaney1717810.5553.265%87.5
Chris Buescher1420.1332.425%59
Chase Elliott131239.5554.258%79.7
Landon Cassill1800.0522.916%56.6

Team Averages At Talladega (Since Feb. 2017)

 Avg.  TopTop
TeamFinishRacesWins510
Richard Petty Motorsports114022
Germain Racing13.54000
Joe Gibbs Racing15.5616025
Team Penske15.710245
Roush Fenway Racing15.758144
Hendrick Motorsports16.4416027
Stewart-Haas Racing16.9416146

 

Momentum

These stats are for the last five races of the 2019 season to show who is hot and who is not

Drivers

Driver Momentum
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLapsFastestLapsAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520LedLapsComp.Rating
Kyle Busch510.86.24.66.2235553722301934122.3
Denny Hamlin510.49.84.65.81455560761934100.9
Brad Keselowski59.610.613-3.4123345591631878106.1
Martin Truex Jr516.69.69.27.41134519680193399.9
Joey Logano54.86.68.6-3.8033352141411933111.2
Ryan Blaney51310.815-2033332051121823101.6
Kevin Harvick58.610.871.60245530174193496.7
Clint Bowyer513.21111.41.80244427104186428.3
Kurt Busch519.811811.801355052193493.9
Daniel Suarez517.211.810.46.801345959193351.4
Jimmie Johnson513.412.813.6-0.2012346020193282.4
Chase Elliott510.210.610.4-0.201155122129193466.3
Erik Jones517.216.218.2-1011234041192273.8
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLapsFastestLapsAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520LedLapsComp.Rating
Aric Almirola512.615.817-4.4003331041143578.3
Austin Dillon511.211.2110.200255545193487.6
Paul Menard514.214.4140.20023508193377.2
Ryan Newman51616.614.81.20023307193271.3
William Byron514.61614.40.2001341826193374.7
Ty Dillon518.82019.4-0.600022613192763.7
Alex Bowman517.818.418.6-0.800013013192967.1
Matt DiBenedetto522.420202.40001305192960.8
Ricky Stenhouse Jr516.621.420.8-4.20001319182658.9
Kyle Larson513.821.425-11.200013019147163.5
Michael McDowell520.625.426.8-6.20001104175649
Chris Buescher515.416.620.2-4.80000208192895.8
Ryan Preece522.824.221.21.60000203192652.2
Bubba Wallace522.22423.4-1.20000200192194.8
David Ragan521.82525-3.20000001191949.3
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLapsFastestLapsAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520LedLapsComp.Rating
Parker Kligerman13329276000000033043.7
Matt Tifft531.427.8274.400000015191241.7
Daniel Hemric51924.628.4-9.400001039190191.5
Landon Cassill529.630.229.6000000012183239.1
Ross Chastain532.430.8302.400000040177439.4
Corey LaJoie529.229.630.4-1.20000004171653.7
DJ Kennington13532323000000248929.2
Bayley Currey3323332.7-0.70000001120032
Quin Houff2323433-1000000386227.9
Jeb Burton231.533.533-1.5000000055528.9
Garrett Smithley237.535343.5000000151329
Joey Gase237.535343.5000000357526.4
Reed Sorenson23634.5342000000151429.3
BJ McLeod23535.5341000000149729.8
Cody Ware233.534.534-0.5000000024739.4
Gray Gaulding1333436-3000000014232.7
Timmy Hill2373636.50.5000000040726.2

Team

Team Momentum
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopLapsFastest
Team#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520LedLaps
Chip Ganassi Racing1016.816.216.50.301368071
Front Row Motorsports1524.626.126.3-1.700011020
Hendrick Motorsports201414.514.3-0.30241216200188
Joe Gibbs Racing2013.810.59.24.649141618668427
JTG Daugherty Racing1019.120.420.7-1.600004011
Richard Childress Racing1015.117.919.7-4.600256584
Roush Fenway Racing1016.31917.8-1.500246116
Stewart-Haas Racing2012.912.411.51.50514161776378
Team Penske159.19.312.2-3.1189912978416

DraftKings Scoring Averages Last Five GEICO 500s

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Kyle Busch4060.560.5 40.7550.2550.4474.18
Brad Keselowski-4.2543.256417-15.2519.5020.9555.98
Joey Logano72.5-4.518.51.53.2534.0018.2554
Kevin Harvick43.59.7545.7555.7542.2526.6339.4053.25
Martin Truex Jr-3.5-11.530.570.554-7.5028.0050.18
Kurt Busch46.75514639.75-12.548.8834.2049.73
Denny Hamlin26.2544.25-7.2544.258235.2537.9047.11
Chase Elliott44.5-7.543.25  18.5026.7542.91
Ryan Blaney34-15.54740 9.2526.3842.39
Clint Bowyer-840.566-36716.2532.5041.36
Daniel Suarez41.7515.5   28.6328.6336.57
Jimmie Johnson37.559.75658.52048.6336.3534.91
Aric Almirola715815.7542.53564.5044.4534.86
Ryan Newman46167.754916.2531.0027.0032.86
Erik Jones-28-7   -17.50-17.5032.36
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Kyle Larson-13.544.514.75-265515.5014.9531.64
Austin Dillon-1-643.5-10.520.5-3.509.3031.36
Brendan Gaughan32.2527 0.5 29.6319.9229.88
Paul Menard236.75446.54119.3826.0528.66
Ty Dillon43.550.25   46.8846.8828.15
William Byron8.5    8.508.5027.60
Ricky Stenhouse Jr475219.524.2551.549.5038.8527.52
Parker Kligerman       27.4
Matt DiBenedetto41.535.5853.5 38.5034.6325.72
Chris Buescher49.2549-336.5 49.1332.9425.55
Alex Bowman49  51.52449.0041.5024.34
Ross Chastain30    30.0030.0024.3
Ryan Preece       22.8
Matt Tifft       21.05
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Corey LaJoie 26.5   26.5026.5018.65
Bubba Wallace29.25    29.2529.2518.55
David Ragan495618.5-2214.7552.5023.2517.75
Landon Cassill 13.556.5-3.566.7513.5033.3117.22
Daniel Hemric       13.68
Michael McDowell11.534 -10.251.256.5613.15
Cody Ware       11.5
Reed Sorenson8-3  -1.252.501.2511.17
Stanton Barrett       0
Justin Haley       0
Jeffrey Earnhardt 28   28.0028.000

FanDuel Scoring Averages Last Five GEICO 500s

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Kyle Busch49.865.467.5 51.457.6058.5371.81
Brad Keselowski15.154.269.434.36.634.6535.9262.77
Joey Logano72.816.833.120.620.944.8032.8465.88
Kevin Harvick55.530.152.759.954.842.8050.6063.35
Martin Truex Jr21.911.846.370.355.816.8541.2263.29
Kurt Busch59.358.656.851.413.458.9547.9066.93
Denny Hamlin41.953.41655.379.547.6549.2265.75
Chase Elliott57.816.855.5  37.3043.3759.31
Ryan Blaney44.36.555.855.3 25.4040.4855.71
Clint Bowyer1548.666.319.868.831.8043.7059.00
Daniel Suarez51.935.1   43.5043.5056.91
Jimmie Johnson49.863.428.765.335.556.6048.5458.04
Aric Almirola69.365.130.151.347.867.2052.7251.96
Ryan Newman55.332.224.458.335.943.7541.2256.59
Erik Jones-7.415.3   3.953.9554.13
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Kyle Larson-0.952.627.7-8.960.825.8526.2648.22
Austin Dillon1712.856.311.239.814.9027.4254.95
Brendan Gaughan41.936.3 6.5 39.1028.2336.90
Paul Menard19.851.22558.852.835.5041.5254.03
Ty Dillon51.854.9   53.3553.3554.09
William Byron23.9    23.9023.9053.98
Ricky Stenhouse Jr56.263.538.835.457.359.8550.2454.24
Parker Kligerman       44.32
Matt DiBenedetto48.446.114.354.3 47.2540.7851.59
Chris Buescher55.954.68.542.8 55.2540.4552.77
Alex Bowman55.9  54.334.255.9048.1349.67
Ross Chastain39.6    39.6039.6045.63
Ryan Preece       48.88
Matt Tifft       45.90
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Corey LaJoie 36.8   36.8036.8043.23
Bubba Wallace43.8    43.8043.8046.78
David Ragan56.859.625.30.825.558.2033.6046.53
Landon Cassill 27.359.36.663.927.3039.2841.65
Daniel Hemric       42.00
Michael McDowell19.518.843.8 11.519.1523.4038.83
Cody Ware       27.23
Reed Sorenson12.44.7  18.58.5511.8732.70
Stanton Barrett       1.60
Justin Haley       0.00
Jeffrey Earnhardt 36.4   36.4036.4035.38

Weekly Rankings (1=Best, 40=Worst)

Race Hist, Talladega History, Track Type History columns are ranked on average finish in those given spans. Scoring columns are ranked highest scoring to lowest scoring averages.

DriverDK$FD $Race HistDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Talladega HistoryTrack Type History
Kyle Busch$12,000$14,000135111614
Kevin Harvick$11,600$13,0002191654613
Joey Logano$11,200$13,500221212272673
Brad Keselowski$10,700$13,20018212325241420
Martin Truex Jr$10,100$11,00017323017152118
Ryan Blaney$9,800$11,60016272722182022
Chase Elliott$9,500$12,0005231920131223
Denny Hamlin$9,200$12,800611107632
Kurt Busch$9,000$11,20047310924
Clint Bowyer$8,900$11,4001324241311118
Erik Jones$8,700$8,50032333333332925
Kyle Larson$8,500$9,00026252628291721
Jimmie Johnson$8,300$9,500886871316
Aric Almirola$8,100$12,5006113347
DriverDK$FD $Race HistDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Talladega HistoryTrack Type History
Daniel Suarez$7,900$10,0001017151612929
Ryan Newman$7,800$7,300151314191675
Austin Dillon$7,600$8,30024313129281810
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,400$10,5003426519
Alex Bowman$7,200$7,5001467482825
Matt DiBenedetto$7,000$7,0002110119172732
Chris Buescher$6,900$6,200195812191925
William Byron$6,800$7,20029282830302431
Paul Menard$6,700$7,8001122222314911
Ty Dillon$6,500$6,50099922415
Ryan Preece$6,400$6,0004040404040401
Daniel Hemric$6,200$5,50040404040404035
Matt Tifft$6,100$4,50040404040404036
Bubba Wallace$6,000$4,50012161315101512
DriverDK$FD $Race HistDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Talladega HistoryTrack Type History
Ross Chastain$5,800$4,00025141714202417
Brendan Gaughan$5,600$5,00030151826272319
David Ragan$5,400$5,000222424252628
Michael McDowell$5,300$4,00031302931313124
Parker Kligerman$5,200$3,5004040404040405
Justin Haley$5,100$040404040404040
Corey LaJoie$5,000$3,00027202021223033
Jeffrey Earnhardt$4,900$3,50028182117234040
Landon Cassill$4,800$4,00020262511212230
Cody Ware$4,700$2,50040404040403337
Reed Sorenson$4,600$3,00033293232323234
Stanton Barrett$4,500$2,50040404040404040