We are in the middle of the NASCAR Goes West section of the schedule this week with the first trip to Phoenix, or ISM Raceway, of the year. This “short track” 1-mile layout is a tricky track to get around once let alone 312 times during a race. Add in to that that the layout of the track changed last Fall and now there is a different aero package on the track, and it should be quite the show that these drivers put on Sunday.

This track, at a mile in length, is one of the most interesting on the schedule because of the shape of it and the famed dogleg turn. The newly redesigned track throws a wrench into things as well since the start/finish line is now in the middle of what used to be the Turn 1 & 2 corner and so the dogleg, or an incredibly wide turn, is now Turn 1 instead of Turn 2 and it makes restarts quite wild as the field fans out to four or five wide. Pit road is also interesting here now as there are pit stalls that are on the curve which makes entry to them a bit tricky at times. The banking around the track is kind of all over the place ranging anywhere from three degrees on the backstretch to eight degrees in Turns 1 & 2 to 10-11 degrees in Turns 3 & 4. It’s considered a flat 1-mile track and that makes it similar to New Hampshire Motor Speedway and, though slightly bigger, similar to Richmond which is .75 miles in length.

There are four drivers in the field with a +5 or better position differential in the last five of these specific races however, those were all run on the old layout of the track and this will be the first March race run on the new layout. To give you an idea of what difference the layout change made, in five of the last six races at ISM Raceway there have been four or five drivers with a double-digit positive position differential, the sixth, the one last November, had 11 such position changes. Now clearly that’s a limited sample size and it was a knockout race ahead of the championship race, however the November 2017 knockout race had just four double-digit positive position changes with the only difference being the original layout versus the new layout.

Phoenix, or newly renamed ISM Raceway, has hosted 45 races in its history in the Cup series with seven of those races having four or fewer cautions during them. Eleven of the 45 races have seen single-digit lead changes during the relatively short 312-lap race. In terms of winners coming from the top-five of the starting grid, that feat has happened a third of the times (15 out of 45 races) and four times in the last 10 races. So, there should be more fireworks than we saw last week at Vegas that had just 12 lead changes and two cautions. Oh, one last thing. The 500 in the race name comes from the number of kilometers in the race, most of the one-mile races and the road races are measured that way. The 312 laps on the 1-mile track equals 312 miles which is 500 kilometers for those who are curious.

With that let’s take a look at the numbers this week.

Track Data

Drivers To Watch This Week

Last Five March Races at Phoenix

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.Fin.DiffW5101520
Kevin Harvick513421144555
Ryan Newman51515.212.22.812344
Kyle Busch464.54.51.503444
Brad Keselowski511.48.211.6-0.202344
Denny Hamlin51313.211.81.202334
Kurt Busch511.212.417-5.801333
Kyle Larson56.61212.4-5.801235
Martin Truex Jr513.412.211.81.601244
Joey Logano53.87.616-12.201224
Chase Elliott396.37.71.301233
Ricky Stenhouse Jr51922.418.80.201123
Jimmie Johnson51210.210.21.800255
Daniel Suarez221177.513.500222
Erik Jones28.5108.5000222
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.Fin.DiffW5101520
Aric Almirola52116.214.26.800135
Austin Dillon51717.216.60.400124
Clint Bowyer522.218.817.44.800133
Ryan Blaney38.713.316.3-7.600112
Ty Dillon323.721.320.33.400012
William Byron1111312-100011
Paul Menard518.222.426.4-8.200011
Matt DiBenedetto429.529.827.32.200001
Alex Bowman321.72728-6.300011
Landon Cassill329.728.3254.700000
David Ragan524.425.626-1.600000
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.Fin.DiffW5101520
Ross Chastain1362827900000
Bubba Wallace1272828-100000
Chris Buescher329.729.728.7100000
Michael McDowell428.829.328.8000000
Corey LaJoie2323637.5-5.500000
BJ McLeod0000000000
Cody Ware0000000000
Daniel Hemric0000000000
Matt Tifft0000000000
Quin Houff0000000000
Ryan Preece0000000000

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg.Laps
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRatingComp
Kevin Harvick5625125.032765.497%1341563
Ryan Newman5357.0316.271%85.71301
Kyle Busch431779.315939.898%122.41251
Brad Keselowski56713.412024.086%103.71557
Denny Hamlin5336.6285.662%87.21563
Kurt Busch571.4418.273%89.91543
Kyle Larson55711.4418.261%91.41562
Martin Truex Jr530.6173.468%89.71562
Joey Logano518837.67214.486%99.31554
Chase Elliott310635.39832.798%110.8939
Ricky Stenhouse Jr500.081.615%66.61410
Jimmie Johnson500.06913.883%96.61563
Daniel Suarez200.000.041%78.9626
Erik Jones200.0136.590%95.6626
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg.Laps
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRatingComp
Aric Almirola500.010.251%771563
Austin Dillon500.030.639%72.71561
Clint Bowyer510.2275.444%74.41557
Ryan Blaney300.020.762%77.2938
Ty Dillon300.000.04%60.2936
William Byron11515.066.068%82.2312
Paul Menard500.010.216%62.51230
Matt DiBenedetto400.000.00%431243
Alex Bowman300.010.318%55.2851
Landon Cassill300.0124.00%49.5933
David Ragan500.030.62%52.91446
Ross Chastain100.000.07%39.2310
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg.Laps
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRatingComp
Bubba Wallace100.000.00%49.7309
Chris Buescher310.300.00%40.4930
Michael McDowell400.000.00%43.41237
Corey LaJoie200.000.00%25.8138
BJ McLeod000.000.00%00
Cody Ware000.000.00%00
Daniel Hemric000.000.00%00
Matt Tifft000.000.00%00
Quin Houff000.000.00%00
Ryan Preece000.000.00%00

Top-15 Drivers Over The Last 10 Races at Phoenix

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos TopTopTopTop
Driver#St.Pos.Fin.DiffW5101520
Kevin Harvick108.94.62.76.259101010
Kyle Busch98.16.67.30.816888
Joey Logano105.91013.9-813568
Ryan Newman1017.21512.64.612389
Brad Keselowski1011.98.410.31.604689
Denny Hamlin109.611.212.7-3.103678
Kyle Larson1061314.2-8.203468
Kurt Busch1010.912.315.7-4.802666
Chase Elliott666.39.5-3.502455
Martin Truex Jr1014.411.914.20.202388
Aric Almirola1021.21713.47.801469
Jimmie Johnson1012.513.918.7-6.201377
Erik Jones58.49.811.4-301335
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1018.32221.6-3.301235
Austin Dillon1016.917.820.2-3.300247

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg.
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Kevin Harvick101105110.555255.295%128.4
Kyle Busch943548.3320923.2295%111.8
Joey Logano1026326.312312.378%97.5
Ryan Newman10353.5777.762%84.5
Brad Keselowski1010310.319119.188%102
Denny Hamlin1025425.410210.272%94.3
Kyle Larson10696.9959.565%92.1
Kurt Busch10595.91301371%91
Chase Elliott61562616727.8396%108.7
Martin Truex Jr10111.170775%91.5
Aric Almirola1000131.341%76.3
Jimmie Johnson10575.713813.866%88.3
Erik Jones5112.2367.288%93.1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1000151.516%65.8
Austin Dillon100090.945%72.5

Top-15 Drivers At Similar Tracks (New Hampshire, Richmond, Phoenix)

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos TopTopTopTopLapsFastestTop-15Avg.
Driver#StartPosFin.DiffW5101520LedLapsRateRating
Kyle Busch218.8662.8514181920123567995%116.9
Kevin Harvick219.2772.241617191981066092%112.1
Joey Logano219.511.511-1.92913161829416575%94.5
Denny Hamlin217.18.89-1.82814192057940285%103.2
Kyle Larson219.712.312-2.11710151814423269%93
Ryan Newman2117.516.1161.91261317588554%77.9
Brad Keselowski2112.68.7112.10712181934745588%100.4
Martin Truex Jr219.29.212-2.607111719128255984%105.5
Chase Elliott1711.19.512-0.8058131421424284%97.2
Aric Almirola2121.818.2156.604810164312439%75.6
Kurt Busch21811.114-5.80312141630923277%93.2
Jimmie Johnson2111.212.513-1.60211181810217972%90.8
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2117.919.920-1.70248121311127%70.1
Erik Jones12915.216-6.5015710118863%80.5

DraftKings Scoring Over Last Five March Phoenix Races

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Joey Logano1112.520.546.2571.7511.7532.4055.1
Kevin Harvick92.557135.75158.515374.75119.3551.75
Brad Keselowski51.556.56.574.548.7554.0047.5547.9
Kyle Larson3156.7527361343.8832.7547.3
Kurt Busch545.253655.5-22.529.6325.6547.1
Kyle Busch111.510372.75 35.5107.2580.6945.85
Erik Jones38.539   38.7538.7541.1
Denny Hamlin57.2546.544.5231851.8837.8538.6
Aric Almirola5238323823.545.0036.7037.5
Chase Elliott578051.5  68.5062.8337.2
Martin Truex Jr40.25382448.527.539.1335.6536.7
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2959-20342944.0026.2034.62
Clint Bowyer62.531172733.2546.7534.1533.65
Ryan Newman43.2577.5-1446.54760.3840.0533.4
Jimmie Johnson3348.53542.553.540.7542.5032.8
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Alex Bowman22.5  10-322.509.8331.45
Chris Buescher1023.2516  16.6316.4230.62
Ty Dillon122742  19.5027.0029.88
Ryan Blaney24136  12.5020.3329.6
Ross Chastain26    26.0026.0029.25
Austin Dillon2825.542252026.7528.1027.85
Daniel Suarez4357   50.0050.0027.8
Matt DiBenedetto2416279 20.0019.0027.06
Ryan Preece       26.88
Paul Menard-1420-1637.5203.009.5026.65
Corey LaJoie3-1   1.001.0026.5
William Byron37.75    37.7537.7525.75
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Landon Cassill 172733 17.0025.6720.94
Michael McDowell112125 416.0015.2518.88
David Ragan16826.5151812.0016.7018.75
Daniel Hemric       16.44
Bubba Wallace15    15.0015.0016.38
Matt Tifft       15.5
Cody Ware       11.88
Quin Houff       0
BJ McLeod        

FanDuel Scoring Over Last Five March Phoenix Races

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Joey Logano46.133.949.764.774.340.0053.7458.44
Kevin Harvick82.574.996.796.6102.678.7090.6652.72
Brad Keselowski63.467.937.771.468.565.6561.7853.24
Kyle Larson51.572.757.863.246.262.1058.2850.52
Kurt Busch69.340.565.368.716.754.9052.1055.52
Kyle Busch86.583.874.3 62.285.1576.7052.48
Erik Jones63.264.4   63.8063.8050.96
Denny Hamlin72.566.969.350.249.769.7061.7251.48
Aric Almirola72.760.959.859.754.266.8061.4648.46
Chase Elliott69.268.568.8  68.8568.8348.20
Martin Truex Jr65.563.955.369.252.664.7061.3045.62
Ricky Stenhouse Jr52.176.96.661.255.764.5050.5051.75
Clint Bowyer72.759.442.751.259.866.0557.1647.54
Ryan Newman64.585.5-2.470.269.875.0057.5246.42
Jimmie Johnson59.765.958.365.765.262.8062.9646.90
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Alex Bowman54.7  39.92154.7038.5346.58
Chris Buescher40.448.542.7  44.4543.8745.93
Ty Dillon40.955.963.8  48.4053.5345.35
Ryan Blaney54.138.963.3  46.5052.1041.46
Ross Chastain49.5    49.5049.5042.53
Austin Dillon55.653.966.355.248.154.7555.8242.58
Daniel Suarez67.775.4   71.5571.5542.04
Matt DiBenedetto49.643.853.736.7 46.7045.9542.43
Ryan Preece       42.45
Paul Menard12.949.92.461.748.631.4035.1042.08
Corey LaJoie4.311   7.657.6541.43
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
William Byron61.2    61.2061.2042.93
Landon Cassill 44.847.855.7 44.8049.4335.53
Michael McDowell39.348.949.3 35.244.1043.1835.25
David Ragan47.125.950.447.24536.5043.1238.10
Daniel Hemric       34.85
Bubba Wallace43.4    43.4043.4035.03
Matt Tifft       32.43
Cody Ware       28.10
Quin Houff       0.00
BJ McLeod       36.00

Rankings For The TIcketGuardian 500 (1=Best, 40=Worst)

   RaceDK Avg.FD Avg.DK Avg.FD Avg.PhoenixTrack Type
DriverDK$FD $HistLast 2Last 2Last 5Last 5HistoryHistory
Kevin Harvick$12,800$14,5001221112
Kyle Busch$12,200$14,2002112221
Brad Keselowski$11,600$13,5007595744
Martin Truex Jr$10,900$13,200813101210116
Joey Logano$10,300$12,5001428271516105
Kyle Larson$9,900$11,0001211141412116
Aric Almirola$9,600$10,8001397119913
Chase Elliott$9,300$11,5004363438
Denny Hamlin$9,000$12,0008659883
Kurt Busch$8,800$10,00017161621181312
Erik Jones$8,600$10,4005141285614
Clint Bowyer$8,400$10,600188813142119
Ryan Blaney$8,200$9,50015262222181517
Jimmie Johnson$8,000$8,1006121366169
   RaceDK Avg.FD Avg.DK Avg.FD Avg.PhoenixTrack Type
DriverDK$FD $HistLast 2Last 2Last 5Last 5HistoryHistory
Austin Dillon$7,800$8,00016171716151916
Daniel Suarez$7,600$7,400374431411
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,500$8,70019101118202018
Alex Bowman$7,300$7,50026191828232722
Ryan Newman$7,100$8,2001143713715
William Byron$7,000$7,1001015151011510
Daniel Hemric$6,900$7,30040313131314030
Paul Menard$6,800$7,20023292929292121
Chris Buescher$6,600$6,00028232425253025
Ryan Preece$6,400$5,00040313131313232
Matt DiBenedetto$6,200$5,50025202123242627
Bubba Wallace$6,000$4,50026252627261740
   RaceDK Avg.FD Avg.DK Avg.FD Avg.PhoenixTrack Type
DriverDK$FD $HistLast 2Last 2Last 5Last 5HistoryHistory
Ty Dillon$5,900$6,50020212017171820
Ross Chastain$5,700$3,50024181919212326
David Ragan$5,600$5,00022272824282424
Michael McDowell$5,500$5,00029242526272823
Matt Tifft$5,400$4,00040313131314040
Corey LaJoie$5,300$3,00030303030303129
Landon Cassill$5,200$4,00021222320222528
Quin Houff$5,100$2,50040313131314040
Cody Ware$5,000$2,50040313131312931
BJ McLeod#N/A$3,00040313131314033

 

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