We are in the middle of the NASCAR Goes West section of the schedule this week with the first trip to Phoenix, or ISM Raceway, of the year. This “short track” 1-mile layout is a tricky track to get around once let alone 312 times during a race. Add in to that that the layout of the track changed last Fall and now there is a different aero package on the track, and it should be quite the show that these drivers put on Sunday.
This track, at a mile in length, is one of the most interesting on the schedule because of the shape of it and the famed dogleg turn. The newly redesigned track throws a wrench into things as well since the start/finish line is now in the middle of what used to be the Turn 1 & 2 corner and so the dogleg, or an incredibly wide turn, is now Turn 1 instead of Turn 2 and it makes restarts quite wild as the field fans out to four or five wide. Pit road is also interesting here now as there are pit stalls that are on the curve which makes entry to them a bit tricky at times. The banking around the track is kind of all over the place ranging anywhere from three degrees on the backstretch to eight degrees in Turns 1 & 2 to 10-11 degrees in Turns 3 & 4. It’s considered a flat 1-mile track and that makes it similar to New Hampshire Motor Speedway and, though slightly bigger, similar to Richmond which is .75 miles in length.
There are four drivers in the field with a +5 or better position differential in the last five of these specific races however, those were all run on the old layout of the track and this will be the first March race run on the new layout. To give you an idea of what difference the layout change made, in five of the last six races at ISM Raceway there have been four or five drivers with a double-digit positive position differential, the sixth, the one last November, had 11 such position changes. Now clearly that’s a limited sample size and it was a knockout race ahead of the championship race, however the November 2017 knockout race had just four double-digit positive position changes with the only difference being the original layout versus the new layout.
Phoenix, or newly renamed ISM Raceway, has hosted 45 races in its history in the Cup series with seven of those races having four or fewer cautions during them. Eleven of the 45 races have seen single-digit lead changes during the relatively short 312-lap race. In terms of winners coming from the top-five of the starting grid, that feat has happened a third of the times (15 out of 45 races) and four times in the last 10 races. So, there should be more fireworks than we saw last week at Vegas that had just 12 lead changes and two cautions. Oh, one last thing. The 500 in the race name comes from the number of kilometers in the race, most of the one-mile races and the road races are measured that way. The 312 laps on the 1-mile track equals 312 miles which is 500 kilometers for those who are curious.
With that let’s take a look at the numbers this week.
Track Data
Drivers To Watch This Week
Last Five March Races at Phoenix
Avg.
Run
Avg.
Pos
Top
Top
Top
Top
Driver
#
Start
Pos.
Fin.
Diff
W
5
10
15
20
Kevin Harvick
5
13
4
2
11
4
4
5
5
5
Ryan Newman
5
15
15.2
12.2
2.8
1
2
3
4
4
Kyle Busch
4
6
4.5
4.5
1.5
0
3
4
4
4
Brad Keselowski
5
11.4
8.2
11.6
-0.2
0
2
3
4
4
Denny Hamlin
5
13
13.2
11.8
1.2
0
2
3
3
4
Kurt Busch
5
11.2
12.4
17
-5.8
0
1
3
3
3
Kyle Larson
5
6.6
12
12.4
-5.8
0
1
2
3
5
Martin Truex Jr
5
13.4
12.2
11.8
1.6
0
1
2
4
4
Joey Logano
5
3.8
7.6
16
-12.2
0
1
2
2
4
Chase Elliott
3
9
6.3
7.7
1.3
0
1
2
3
3
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
5
19
22.4
18.8
0.2
0
1
1
2
3
Jimmie Johnson
5
12
10.2
10.2
1.8
0
0
2
5
5
Daniel Suarez
2
21
17
7.5
13.5
0
0
2
2
2
Erik Jones
2
8.5
10
8.5
0
0
0
2
2
2
Avg.
Run
Avg.
Pos
Top
Top
Top
Top
Driver
#
Start
Pos.
Fin.
Diff
W
5
10
15
20
Aric Almirola
5
21
16.2
14.2
6.8
0
0
1
3
5
Austin Dillon
5
17
17.2
16.6
0.4
0
0
1
2
4
Clint Bowyer
5
22.2
18.8
17.4
4.8
0
0
1
3
3
Ryan Blaney
3
8.7
13.3
16.3
-7.6
0
0
1
1
2
Ty Dillon
3
23.7
21.3
20.3
3.4
0
0
0
1
2
William Byron
1
11
13
12
-1
0
0
0
1
1
Paul Menard
5
18.2
22.4
26.4
-8.2
0
0
0
1
1
Matt DiBenedetto
4
29.5
29.8
27.3
2.2
0
0
0
0
1
Alex Bowman
3
21.7
27
28
-6.3
0
0
0
1
1
Landon Cassill
3
29.7
28.3
25
4.7
0
0
0
0
0
David Ragan
5
24.4
25.6
26
-1.6
0
0
0
0
0
Avg.
Run
Avg.
Pos
Top
Top
Top
Top
Driver
#
Start
Pos.
Fin.
Diff
W
5
10
15
20
Ross Chastain
1
36
28
27
9
0
0
0
0
0
Bubba Wallace
1
27
28
28
-1
0
0
0
0
0
Chris Buescher
3
29.7
29.7
28.7
1
0
0
0
0
0
Michael McDowell
4
28.8
29.3
28.8
0
0
0
0
0
0
Corey LaJoie
2
32
36
37.5
-5.5
0
0
0
0
0
BJ McLeod
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cody Ware
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Daniel Hemric
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Matt Tifft
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Quin Houff
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Ryan Preece
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Laps
Laps Led
Fastest
Fast Laps
Top-15
Avg.
Laps
Driver
#
Led
/Race
Laps
/Race
Rate
Rating
Comp
Kevin Harvick
5
625
125.0
327
65.4
97%
134
1563
Ryan Newman
5
35
7.0
31
6.2
71%
85.7
1301
Kyle Busch
4
317
79.3
159
39.8
98%
122.4
1251
Brad Keselowski
5
67
13.4
120
24.0
86%
103.7
1557
Denny Hamlin
5
33
6.6
28
5.6
62%
87.2
1563
Kurt Busch
5
7
1.4
41
8.2
73%
89.9
1543
Kyle Larson
5
57
11.4
41
8.2
61%
91.4
1562
Martin Truex Jr
5
3
0.6
17
3.4
68%
89.7
1562
Joey Logano
5
188
37.6
72
14.4
86%
99.3
1554
Chase Elliott
3
106
35.3
98
32.7
98%
110.8
939
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
5
0
0.0
8
1.6
15%
66.6
1410
Jimmie Johnson
5
0
0.0
69
13.8
83%
96.6
1563
Daniel Suarez
2
0
0.0
0
0.0
41%
78.9
626
Erik Jones
2
0
0.0
13
6.5
90%
95.6
626
Laps
Laps Led
Fastest
Fast Laps
Top-15
Avg.
Laps
Driver
#
Led
/Race
Laps
/Race
Rate
Rating
Comp
Aric Almirola
5
0
0.0
1
0.2
51%
77
1563
Austin Dillon
5
0
0.0
3
0.6
39%
72.7
1561
Clint Bowyer
5
1
0.2
27
5.4
44%
74.4
1557
Ryan Blaney
3
0
0.0
2
0.7
62%
77.2
938
Ty Dillon
3
0
0.0
0
0.0
4%
60.2
936
William Byron
1
15
15.0
6
6.0
68%
82.2
312
Paul Menard
5
0
0.0
1
0.2
16%
62.5
1230
Matt DiBenedetto
4
0
0.0
0
0.0
0%
43
1243
Alex Bowman
3
0
0.0
1
0.3
18%
55.2
851
Landon Cassill
3
0
0.0
12
4.0
0%
49.5
933
David Ragan
5
0
0.0
3
0.6
2%
52.9
1446
Ross Chastain
1
0
0.0
0
0.0
7%
39.2
310
Laps
Laps Led
Fastest
Fast Laps
Top-15
Avg.
Laps
Driver
#
Led
/Race
Laps
/Race
Rate
Rating
Comp
Bubba Wallace
1
0
0.0
0
0.0
0%
49.7
309
Chris Buescher
3
1
0.3
0
0.0
0%
40.4
930
Michael McDowell
4
0
0.0
0
0.0
0%
43.4
1237
Corey LaJoie
2
0
0.0
0
0.0
0%
25.8
138
BJ McLeod
0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0%
0
0
Cody Ware
0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0%
0
0
Daniel Hemric
0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0%
0
0
Matt Tifft
0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0%
0
0
Quin Houff
0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0%
0
0
Ryan Preece
0
0
0.0
0
0.0
0%
0
0
Top-15 Drivers Over The Last 10 Races at Phoenix
Avg.
Run
Avg.
Pos
Top
Top
Top
Top
Driver
#
St.
Pos.
Fin.
Diff
W
5
10
15
20
Kevin Harvick
10
8.9
4.6
2.7
6.2
5
9
10
10
10
Kyle Busch
9
8.1
6.6
7.3
0.8
1
6
8
8
8
Joey Logano
10
5.9
10
13.9
-8
1
3
5
6
8
Ryan Newman
10
17.2
15
12.6
4.6
1
2
3
8
9
Brad Keselowski
10
11.9
8.4
10.3
1.6
0
4
6
8
9
Denny Hamlin
10
9.6
11.2
12.7
-3.1
0
3
6
7
8
Kyle Larson
10
6
13
14.2
-8.2
0
3
4
6
8
Kurt Busch
10
10.9
12.3
15.7
-4.8
0
2
6
6
6
Chase Elliott
6
6
6.3
9.5
-3.5
0
2
4
5
5
Martin Truex Jr
10
14.4
11.9
14.2
0.2
0
2
3
8
8
Aric Almirola
10
21.2
17
13.4
7.8
0
1
4
6
9
Jimmie Johnson
10
12.5
13.9
18.7
-6.2
0
1
3
7
7
Erik Jones
5
8.4
9.8
11.4
-3
0
1
3
3
5
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
10
18.3
22
21.6
-3.3
0
1
2
3
5
Austin Dillon
10
16.9
17.8
20.2
-3.3
0
0
2
4
7
Laps
Laps Led
Fastest
Fast Laps
Top-15
Avg.
Driver
#
Led
/Race
Laps
/Race
Rate
Rating
Kevin Harvick
10
1105
110.5
552
55.2
95%
128.4
Kyle Busch
9
435
48.33
209
23.22
95%
111.8
Joey Logano
10
263
26.3
123
12.3
78%
97.5
Ryan Newman
10
35
3.5
77
7.7
62%
84.5
Brad Keselowski
10
103
10.3
191
19.1
88%
102
Denny Hamlin
10
254
25.4
102
10.2
72%
94.3
Kyle Larson
10
69
6.9
95
9.5
65%
92.1
Kurt Busch
10
59
5.9
130
13
71%
91
Chase Elliott
6
156
26
167
27.83
96%
108.7
Martin Truex Jr
10
11
1.1
70
7
75%
91.5
Aric Almirola
10
0
0
13
1.3
41%
76.3
Jimmie Johnson
10
57
5.7
138
13.8
66%
88.3
Erik Jones
5
11
2.2
36
7.2
88%
93.1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
10
0
0
15
1.5
16%
65.8
Austin Dillon
10
0
0
9
0.9
45%
72.5
Top-15 Drivers At Similar Tracks (New Hampshire, Richmond, Phoenix)
Avg.
Run
Avg.
Pos
Top
Top
Top
Top
Laps
Fastest
Top-15
Avg.
Driver
#
Start
Pos
Fin.
Diff
W
5
10
15
20
Led
Laps
Rate
Rating
Kyle Busch
21
8.8
6
6
2.8
5
14
18
19
20
1235
679
95%
116.9
Kevin Harvick
21
9.2
7
7
2.2
4
16
17
19
19
810
660
92%
112.1
Joey Logano
21
9.5
11.5
11
-1.9
2
9
13
16
18
294
165
75%
94.5
Denny Hamlin
21
7.1
8.8
9
-1.8
2
8
14
19
20
579
402
85%
103.2
Kyle Larson
21
9.7
12.3
12
-2.1
1
7
10
15
18
144
232
69%
93
Ryan Newman
21
17.5
16.1
16
1.9
1
2
6
13
17
58
85
54%
77.9
Brad Keselowski
21
12.6
8.7
11
2.1
0
7
12
18
19
347
455
88%
100.4
Martin Truex Jr
21
9.2
9.2
12
-2.6
0
7
11
17
19
1282
559
84%
105.5
Chase Elliott
17
11.1
9.5
12
-0.8
0
5
8
13
14
214
242
84%
97.2
Aric Almirola
21
21.8
18.2
15
6.6
0
4
8
10
16
43
124
39%
75.6
Kurt Busch
21
8
11.1
14
-5.8
0
3
12
14
16
309
232
77%
93.2
Jimmie Johnson
21
11.2
12.5
13
-1.6
0
2
11
18
18
102
179
72%
90.8
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
21
17.9
19.9
20
-1.7
0
2
4
8
12
13
111
27%
70.1
Erik Jones
12
9
15.2
16
-6.5
0
1
5
7
10
11
88
63%
80.5
DraftKings Scoring Over Last Five March Phoenix Races
Driver
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Last 2 Avg
Last 5 Avg
DK Seas. Avg.
Joey Logano
11
12.5
20.5
46.25
71.75
11.75
32.40
55.1
Kevin Harvick
92.5
57
135.75
158.5
153
74.75
119.35
51.75
Brad Keselowski
51.5
56.5
6.5
74.5
48.75
54.00
47.55
47.9
Kyle Larson
31
56.75
27
36
13
43.88
32.75
47.3
Kurt Busch
54
5.25
36
55.5
-22.5
29.63
25.65
47.1
Kyle Busch
111.5
103
72.75
35.5
107.25
80.69
45.85
Erik Jones
38.5
39
38.75
38.75
41.1
Denny Hamlin
57.25
46.5
44.5
23
18
51.88
37.85
38.6
Aric Almirola
52
38
32
38
23.5
45.00
36.70
37.5
Chase Elliott
57
80
51.5
68.50
62.83
37.2
Martin Truex Jr
40.25
38
24
48.5
27.5
39.13
35.65
36.7
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
29
59
-20
34
29
44.00
26.20
34.62
Clint Bowyer
62.5
31
17
27
33.25
46.75
34.15
33.65
Ryan Newman
43.25
77.5
-14
46.5
47
60.38
40.05
33.4
Jimmie Johnson
33
48.5
35
42.5
53.5
40.75
42.50
32.8
Driver
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Last 2 Avg
Last 5 Avg
DK Seas. Avg.
Alex Bowman
22.5
10
-3
22.50
9.83
31.45
Chris Buescher
10
23.25
16
16.63
16.42
30.62
Ty Dillon
12
27
42
19.50
27.00
29.88
Ryan Blaney
24
1
36
12.50
20.33
29.6
Ross Chastain
26
26.00
26.00
29.25
Austin Dillon
28
25.5
42
25
20
26.75
28.10
27.85
Daniel Suarez
43
57
50.00
50.00
27.8
Matt DiBenedetto
24
16
27
9
20.00
19.00
27.06
Ryan Preece
26.88
Paul Menard
-14
20
-16
37.5
20
3.00
9.50
26.65
Corey LaJoie
3
-1
1.00
1.00
26.5
William Byron
37.75
37.75
37.75
25.75
Driver
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Last 2 Avg
Last 5 Avg
DK Seas. Avg.
Landon Cassill
17
27
33
17.00
25.67
20.94
Michael McDowell
11
21
25
4
16.00
15.25
18.88
David Ragan
16
8
26.5
15
18
12.00
16.70
18.75
Daniel Hemric
16.44
Bubba Wallace
15
15.00
15.00
16.38
Matt Tifft
15.5
Cody Ware
11.88
Quin Houff
0
BJ McLeod
FanDuel Scoring Over Last Five March Phoenix Races
Driver
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Last 2 Avg
Last 5 Avg
FD Seas. Avg.
Joey Logano
46.1
33.9
49.7
64.7
74.3
40.00
53.74
58.44
Kevin Harvick
82.5
74.9
96.7
96.6
102.6
78.70
90.66
52.72
Brad Keselowski
63.4
67.9
37.7
71.4
68.5
65.65
61.78
53.24
Kyle Larson
51.5
72.7
57.8
63.2
46.2
62.10
58.28
50.52
Kurt Busch
69.3
40.5
65.3
68.7
16.7
54.90
52.10
55.52
Kyle Busch
86.5
83.8
74.3
62.2
85.15
76.70
52.48
Erik Jones
63.2
64.4
63.80
63.80
50.96
Denny Hamlin
72.5
66.9
69.3
50.2
49.7
69.70
61.72
51.48
Aric Almirola
72.7
60.9
59.8
59.7
54.2
66.80
61.46
48.46
Chase Elliott
69.2
68.5
68.8
68.85
68.83
48.20
Martin Truex Jr
65.5
63.9
55.3
69.2
52.6
64.70
61.30
45.62
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
52.1
76.9
6.6
61.2
55.7
64.50
50.50
51.75
Clint Bowyer
72.7
59.4
42.7
51.2
59.8
66.05
57.16
47.54
Ryan Newman
64.5
85.5
-2.4
70.2
69.8
75.00
57.52
46.42
Jimmie Johnson
59.7
65.9
58.3
65.7
65.2
62.80
62.96
46.90
Driver
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Last 2 Avg
Last 5 Avg
FD Seas. Avg.
Alex Bowman
54.7
39.9
21
54.70
38.53
46.58
Chris Buescher
40.4
48.5
42.7
44.45
43.87
45.93
Ty Dillon
40.9
55.9
63.8
48.40
53.53
45.35
Ryan Blaney
54.1
38.9
63.3
46.50
52.10
41.46
Ross Chastain
49.5
49.50
49.50
42.53
Austin Dillon
55.6
53.9
66.3
55.2
48.1
54.75
55.82
42.58
Daniel Suarez
67.7
75.4
71.55
71.55
42.04
Matt DiBenedetto
49.6
43.8
53.7
36.7
46.70
45.95
42.43
Ryan Preece
42.45
Paul Menard
12.9
49.9
2.4
61.7
48.6
31.40
35.10
42.08
Corey LaJoie
4.3
11
7.65
7.65
41.43
Driver
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Last 2 Avg
Last 5 Avg
FD Seas. Avg.
William Byron
61.2
61.20
61.20
42.93
Landon Cassill
44.8
47.8
55.7
44.80
49.43
35.53
Michael McDowell
39.3
48.9
49.3
35.2
44.10
43.18
35.25
David Ragan
47.1
25.9
50.4
47.2
45
36.50
43.12
38.10
Daniel Hemric
34.85
Bubba Wallace
43.4
43.40
43.40
35.03
Matt Tifft
32.43
Cody Ware
28.10
Quin Houff
0.00
BJ McLeod
36.00
Rankings For The TIcketGuardian 500 (1=Best, 40=Worst)
Race
DK Avg.
FD Avg.
DK Avg.
FD Avg.
Phoenix
Track Type
Driver
DK$
FD $
Hist
Last 2
Last 2
Last 5
Last 5
History
History
Kevin Harvick
$12,800
$14,500
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
Kyle Busch
$12,200
$14,200
2
1
1
2
2
2
1
Brad Keselowski
$11,600
$13,500
7
5
9
5
7
4
4
Martin Truex Jr
$10,900
$13,200
8
13
10
12
10
11
6
Joey Logano
$10,300
$12,500
14
28
27
15
16
10
5
Kyle Larson
$9,900
$11,000
12
11
14
14
12
11
6
Aric Almirola
$9,600
$10,800
13
9
7
11
9
9
13
Chase Elliott
$9,300
$11,500
4
3
6
3
4
3
8
Denny Hamlin
$9,000
$12,000
8
6
5
9
8
8
3
Kurt Busch
$8,800
$10,000
17
16
16
21
18
13
12
Erik Jones
$8,600
$10,400
5
14
12
8
5
6
14
Clint Bowyer
$8,400
$10,600
18
8
8
13
14
21
19
Ryan Blaney
$8,200
$9,500
15
26
22
22
18
15
17
Jimmie Johnson
$8,000
$8,100
6
12
13
6
6
16
9
Race
DK Avg.
FD Avg.
DK Avg.
FD Avg.
Phoenix
Track Type
Driver
DK$
FD $
Hist
Last 2
Last 2
Last 5
Last 5
History
History
Austin Dillon
$7,800
$8,000
16
17
17
16
15
19
16
Daniel Suarez
$7,600
$7,400
3
7
4
4
3
14
11
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
$7,500
$8,700
19
10
11
18
20
20
18
Alex Bowman
$7,300
$7,500
26
19
18
28
23
27
22
Ryan Newman
$7,100
$8,200
11
4
3
7
13
7
15
William Byron
$7,000
$7,100
10
15
15
10
11
5
10
Daniel Hemric
$6,900
$7,300
40
31
31
31
31
40
30
Paul Menard
$6,800
$7,200
23
29
29
29
29
21
21
Chris Buescher
$6,600
$6,000
28
23
24
25
25
30
25
Ryan Preece
$6,400
$5,000
40
31
31
31
31
32
32
Matt DiBenedetto
$6,200
$5,500
25
20
21
23
24
26
27
Bubba Wallace
$6,000
$4,500
26
25
26
27
26
17
40
Race
DK Avg.
FD Avg.
DK Avg.
FD Avg.
Phoenix
Track Type
Driver
DK$
FD $
Hist
Last 2
Last 2
Last 5
Last 5
History
History
Ty Dillon
$5,900
$6,500
20
21
20
17
17
18
20
Ross Chastain
$5,700
$3,500
24
18
19
19
21
23
26
David Ragan
$5,600
$5,000
22
27
28
24
28
24
24
Michael McDowell
$5,500
$5,000
29
24
25
26
27
28
23
Matt Tifft
$5,400
$4,000
40
31
31
31
31
40
40
Corey LaJoie
$5,300
$3,000
30
30
30
30
30
31
29
Landon Cassill
$5,200
$4,000
21
22
23
20
22
25
28
Quin Houff
$5,100
$2,500
40
31
31
31
31
40
40
Cody Ware
$5,000
$2,500
40
31
31
31
31
29
31
BJ McLeod
#N/A
$3,000
40
31
31
31
31
40
33
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