DFS NASCAR: Quaker State 400 Payline Analysis

Once again Kentucky turned into the Martin Truex Jr. show for a second year in a row as he is still the only driver to win a stage at the track (since stage racing began at the start of last year). But overall it was a pretty good race with some nice moves being made for position and really ran as a wider than one-groove track for most of the night and allowed for several drivers to improve on their starting position quite noticeably. Overall it was a decently high scoring day, pushed upward by the 122 point day from the race winner, but scores of 280 could land you in the money in most contests.

Payline Breakdown

DraftKings

NAS $25K Happy Hour (20 Entry Max)

Entry Fee - $1

Total Prizes - $25,000  First Place - $1,500

Total Entries - 29,418  Places Paid - 7,375

Top Score - 352.5 

Money Line - 271.50 

Fantasy Alarm Lineups - 281.75 GPP 1; 262.75 Cash; 219.00 GPP 2

This contest is one of the largest each week and fits the mold of a multi-entry GPP. Given that it’s such a larger field GPP the ownership percentages are interesting to notice since there is likely to be lower ownership across the board with 29,000+ lineups being entered. That was the case this week. The highest owned driver in the contest was Denny Hamlin at 48.98% which isn’t surprising given the speed he showed and his starting position of 36th, he was basically a shoe-in for a big PD day. Martin Truex Jr. was the only other driver at more than 40% at 44.28% after starting on the pole but having dominated the race a year ago. Kyle Busch and Matt DiBenedetto were the only two in the 30s at 33.95% and 32.9% respectively which is a bit surprising to see DiBenedetto that high, and his seven points (after crashing out) certainly hampered his owners. Four other drivers cracked the 20% level in Kevin Harvick, Bubba Wallace, Kyle Larson, and Jamie McMurray. Now in fairness to Larson he could have taken a hit in ownership with 5-10 minutes left before lock as it was announced he was starting from the back and that could have scared previous owners off of him. The ownership of Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney being about the same (18.98 and 18.69) makes sense though being owned at less than 20% is a bit of a shock as they both showed very good speed at practice and in Keselowski’s case he has dominated this track previously. The best value ownership in this contest (highest scoring with lowest ownership) was Aric Almirola and his 44 points on just 9.72% of rosters. While most people’s entries were multis, the highest single-entry lineup finished tied for the second.

NAS $12K Hot Rod (3 Entry Max)

Entry Fee - $3

Total Prizes - $12,000  First Place - $1,000

Total Entries - 4,756  Places Paid - 1,200

Top Score - 350 

Money Line - 276 

Fantasy Alarm Lineups - 281.75 GPP 1; 262.75 Cash; 219 GPP 2

In this smaller-field GPP the ownerships followed a similar trend as in the larger-field one described above. Denny Hamlin was once again the highest-owned driver but he did crack the 50% mark at 53.36. The pole sitter, Martin Truex Jr., was second again at 49.39% making him a highly-owned pole sitter for a non-short track race. Matt DiBenedetto was even higher owned in this contest as well at 40.71% which means his seven total points hurt the field even more though two entries with him on the roster finished 21 and 22. Kyle Busch’s 52-point day was on 35.83% rosters, slightly higher than the larger GPP. Bubba Wallace finished off the drivers over 30% at 31.46%; He was one of my favorite cheap plays this week with his history here at Xfinity races. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, Jamie McMurray, and Kasey Kahne made up a similar four-driver set owned in the 20% range with Kahne taking the spot of Wallace from above. Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Erik Jones, and Kurt Busch were again in a group together in the upper teens and a lot of lineups had those four together with two cheaper plays and that paid off well as three of the four put up 58 points. Interestingly Jimmie Johnson was once again owned in the 16-17% range despite not showing speed in practice, but the P27 starting spot was too hard to pass up for some. Aric Almirola once more fills the value role with 44 points being on 8.35% of rosters. The highest single-entry lineups finished in eighth with 334.5 points.

NAS $3 Double-Up (single entry)

Entry Fee - $3

Total Prizes - $102  1st-17th - $6

Total Entries - 39  Places Paid - 17

Top Score - 312.25 

Money Line - 280.25 

Fantasy Alarm Lineup - 262.75 Cash

This is a small-field cash contest and there are certainly larger double-ups to play, but I find the money lines in the small ones are depressed and I also don’t like playing multi-entry cash contests. Denny Hamlin was owned on every roster in this contest, a perfect 100%. Surprisingly however, Martin Truex Jr. and Matt DiBenedetto were the next highest owned at 87.18% each. Owning the pole-sitter in a cash lineup on a non-short track is a bit risky unless your guaranteed ahead of time that he will lead the most laps (which Truex did). Twelve of the 39 lineups were exactly the same which boosted ownership rates for guys like Jamie McMurray and Kasey Kahne to 53.85 and 46.15 respectively which is crazy high for two guys that combined for 56.5 points. Jimmie Johnson was also again relatively highly owned at 35.9% though he was on the 12 same lineups. The two absolute biggest surprises were Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney both being owned at just 7.69% of lineups in this contest especially compared to Kyle Busch at 25.64%. The value play in this one, that had been Aric Almirola in previous ones, could still be him at 2.56%, but Blaney and Keselowski both make a case too with 58-point days for them.

Optimal DraftKings Lineup

Clearly Truex was going to be in it for his 122-point effort but in total, four of the seven drivers to post 50+ points are in the lineup. Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, and Denny Hamlin are the three that scored 52, 56, and 51 points respectively and didn’t make it simply because there were cheaper or higher scoring options at the same price points. William Byron and David Ragan are the two highest scoring drivers from $7k and below which puts them in to finish off the lineup. In all, five of the six drivers in the lineup were written about in the Playbook this week and four of the six were played in the Optimals for the race. The closest anyone got in the contests I played in was 352.50 due to playing Larson instead of Keselowski.