2018 NASCAR DFS Payline Analysis: O’Reilly Auto Parts 500

Sunday’s race at Texas had quite a bit of carnage in it, starting at just the third lap when four cars got into each other. The cold temps certainly played a role as the tires had trouble warming up and keeping grip save for a very narrow single-lane for much of the race. That being said, there were still some big-time point producers in the race, and scores skyrocketed because of it. Let’s see who folks were targeting in these contests.

NAS $15K Hot Rod (3 entry max)

Entry fee - $3

Total prizes - $15,000  First place - $1,000

Total entries – 5,945  Places paid – 1,552

Top score – 465.5

Money line – 293.75

Fantasy Alarm Lineups – 311.25 cash; 251.5 GPP 2; 231.5 GPP 1

Despite the big time price tag, Kevin Harvick was still the top-owned guy in this contest, and only one over the 50% barrier. His 104.75 points really paid dividends for the 53.59% who owned him with a 9.1x value return for this race. Only two other drivers were in the 40% range with Erik Jones at 44.19 and William Byron at 43.52 both or whom also had big point days at their salaries with 80.5 and 57.75 respectively. The second driver to score over 100 points on the day was Kyle Busch, who ended up winning the race, but he was only rostered on just over 27-percent of lineups in this multi-entry GPP contest. Kasey Kahne and Chris Buescher were my favorite two cheap plays for the week and there was an interesting discrepancy between their ownership rates. Kahne comes in at 22.83% and 39 points tallied with Buescher down at a tick below nine percent and 32 points scored. The best values of the week came from Ty Dillon and Michael McDowell who were rostered on 2.76% and 4.39% respectively while also producing 41.5 and 43 points in the bottom tier of prices.
 

NAS $500 Free Contest (Single entry)

Entry fee – Free

Total prizes - $500  First place - $50

Total entries – 22,488  Places paid – 265

Top score – 465.5

Money line – 390.25

Fantasy Alarm Lineups – 311.25 cash; 251.5 GPP 2; 231.5 GPP 1

As is to be expected with a massive field (and a single entry on top of it) the ownership rates were highly depressed compared to the moderate-sized GPP above. Not a single driver cracked 40% ownership in the whole field, and all drivers were played despite JJ Yeley not actually racing on Sunday. Clint Bowyer was the top guy at 39.66%, coming off a big win in the last race at Martinsville. The downside was his 35-point score didn’t really help as much as it could. The top two point scorers in Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch were next in the ownership rates at 33.29 and 32.03 respectively. Ryan Blaney and the pole sitter Kurt Busch finish off the drivers in the 30% range at 31.42 and 30.46 after strong showings in practice and qualifying. Seven more drivers found themselves on 22-29 percent of rosters, with varying levels of results including three with negative point totals. Once again McDowell and Ty Dillon were low-owned 40+-point producers with them being on 3.17 and 2.99 percent of teams respectively. Jimmie Johnson, who I liked coming into the race, was a decently popular play in this large-field tournament with 22.4% rostering the seven time champ and his -14-point performance.

NAS Single Entry $5 Double Up

Entry fee - $5

Total prizes - $4,000  1st-400th - $10

Total entries – 919

Top score – 461.5

Money line – 295

Fantasy Alarm Lineup – 311.25 cash

The final contest I am breaking down this week is a larger-field double up variety. The ownership rates were the highest yet, not surprising from a cash contest, but this one had four drivers owned over 50% and one on nearly 3-out-of-every-4 lineups in Kevin Harvick. Once more William Byron and Erik Jones were very high on the ownership rates, second and third in this contest, and for good reason given history and practice runs at the track. Martin Truex Jr. rounds out the grouping on better than half the lineups which isn’t a shock since he has done well at the distance and has shown well this year so far, his car getting into the wall hard certainly didn’t help those that rostered him though. Kasey Kahne’s ownership reached its highest point in this contest at 43.42%, which is hard to argue against given his consistency at this track and his impressively low salary this week. Once you get passed Jamie McMurray at 36.34% owned, there is a steep drop off down to Jimmie Johnson at 21% and Clint Bowyer at 20.3%. Even Kyle Busch fell to 18% in this contest meaning he was on just 167 rosters out of the 919 in the field. McDowell and T. Dillon stayed low-owned, even more so in this one, at 2.9 and 1.7 each. The cheap play in the cash lineup, Cole Whitt, nearly equaled Busch at 15% played boosting lineups by 40 points for just $5k in salary for an 8x value.

Optimal Lineup

Here is the best possible scoring roster you could have played this week:

It’s not a shock to see it anchored by both Harvick and Busch as the two 100-point scorers are musts to fit into the roster to produce the big time score. Jones as the next highest scorer makes sense as well especially at a sub-$8k salary and a value (FPPK) of 10.2 on Sunday. McMurray and Byron finish off the run of 50+-point scorers, of which this lineup has five of the six from Sunday with the only exception being Kurt Busch at 55 points. After those five are in, there is $6,500 left to spend and McDowell offers the best point total of anyone at that price point. There are four 40-point or more scorers below $6,500 and McDowell is simply the highest of that group. Darrell Wallace Jr. also scored 43 points on Sunday but his $6.600 price tag put him just slightly out of reach. In a few of the contests I played in, the top score was in fact the perfect lineup.