Sunday makes the last race before the championship race at Homestead-Miami. There are three drivers that have already clinched their spots in the Championship 4 in Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick. That leaves five drivers left in the Chase that are still competing for the final spot. Phoenix hosts this week’s race and presents a unique challenge for the drivers. It’s a 1-mile track but allows for a lot more passing chances than either Dover or Loudon given the shape and layout of the track. There is a part of the track known as the dogleg in which the turn is very wide and allows for a dive bomb maneuver that can be highly effective at passing cars in groups.
Track Data
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Top 20s | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Kevin Harvick | 11.2 | 2.8 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 506 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 126.6 | 8.4 | 126.5 | 25.30 |
| Joey Logano | 6 | 12.2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 175 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 107.6 | -6.2 | 43.75 | 8.75 |
| Ryan Newman | 16.8 | 13.2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 81.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.30 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 12 | 15.75 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 99.1 | -3.75 | 14 | 3.50 |
| Kyle Busch | 9.8 | 3.25 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 190 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 115.2 | 6.55 | 47.5 | 11.88 |
| Kurt Busch | 7.4 | 9.6 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 94.6 | -2.2 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Kyle Larson | 6.2 | 9.6 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 94.8 | -3.4 | 0.75 | 0.15 |
| Denny Hamlin | 13 | 10.2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 89.5 | 2.8 | 1 | 0.20 |
| Brad Keselowski | 12.6 | 12.6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 99.8 | 0 | 14 | 2.80 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 11.4 | 14.8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 57 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 99 | -3.4 | 14.25 | 2.85 |
| Jamie McMurray | 8 | 11.8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 90 | -3.8 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Kasey Kahne | 13 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 84.4 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 17 | 23.4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 41 | 2 | 66 | -6.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Chase Elliott | 9 | 9.67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 106 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 107.9 | -0.67 | 26.5 | 8.83 |
| Ryan Blaney | 7.3 | 13.67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 83 | -6.37 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 16.8 | 17.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 87 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Austin Dillon | 13.2 | 20.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 77.4 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aric Almirola | 23.6 | 16.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 68 | 7.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Paul Menard | 18 | 19.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 1 | 71.3 | -1.2 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Matt Kenseth | 8 | 20.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 55 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 1 | 87.9 | -12.25 | 13.75 | 3.44 |
| Erik Jones | 7.5 | 13.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 91.9 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Suarez | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 73.5 | 20 | 0 | 0.00 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 21 | 20.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 26 | 0 | 63.5 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ty Dillon | 21.5 | 15.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 68.9 | 6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Danica Patrick | 24.4 | 22.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 29 | 0 | 57.6 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 |
| David Ragan | 27.2 | 25.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 35 | 1 | 51.8 | 1.4 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Clint Bowyer | 27.8 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 31 | 0 | 59.9 | 4.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Trevor Bayne | 26 | 26.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 34 | 0 | 51.5 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Landon Cassill | 29.8 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 35 | 0 | 48.2 | 3.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 30 | 27.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 35 | 0 | 46.5 | 2.6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Chris Buescher | 31.7 | 29.67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 32 | 0 | 40.3 | 2.03 | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| Reed Sorenson | 36.5 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 36 | 0 | 32.2 | 3.5 | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| Michael McDowell | 28 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 34 | 0 | 46.9 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Cole Whitt | 35.8 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 36 | 2 | 38.8 | 3.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Derrike Cope | 37 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 30.1 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 36.5 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 39 | 1 | 27.4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
| D.J. Kennington | 39 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 28.8 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Gray Gaulding | 36.5 | 36.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 37 | 2 | 28.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Corey LaJoie | 31 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 38 | 1 | 27.3 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Weatherman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Top-15 Drivers at Phoenix International Raceway Historically
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Top 20s | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Kevin Harvick | 16.2 | 9.9 | 29 | 8 | 13 | 18 | 25 | 1,484 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 6.3 | 371 | 12.79 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 11.7 | 8.96 | 28 | 4 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 990 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 2.74 | 247.5 | 8.84 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 16.3 | 16.03 | 29 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 569 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 4 | 0.27 | 142.25 | 4.91 |
| Ryan Newman | 13.6 | 17.1 | 30 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 21 | 219 | 4 | 1 | 43 | 6 | -3.5 | 54.75 | 1.83 |
| Denny Hamlin | 11.7 | 10.83 | 24 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 445 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0.87 | 111.25 | 4.64 |
| Kurt Busch | 12.1 | 13.48 | 29 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 751 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 1 | -1.38 | 187.75 | 6.47 |
| Kyle Busch | 11.6 | 12.46 | 24 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 699 | 3 | 1 | 38 | 1 | -0.86 | 174.75 | 7.28 |
| Matt Kenseth | 17.7 | 17.14 | 29 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 267 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 5 | 0.56 | 66.75 | 2.30 |
| Kasey Kahne | 12 | 17.77 | 26 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 1 | -5.77 | 13.75 | 0.53 |
| Joey Logano | 11.8 | 14.24 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 296 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 3 | -2.44 | 74 | 4.35 |
| Brad Keselowski | 14.4 | 14 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 119 | 1 | 3 | 42 | 1 | 0.4 | 29.75 | 1.86 |
| Clint Bowyer | 19.9 | 19.13 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 3 | 0.77 | 5.5 | 0.23 |
| Jamie McMurray | 15.3 | 19.21 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 31 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 4 | -3.91 | 7.75 | 0.28 |
| Kyle Larson | 6.7 | 11.57 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 | -4.87 | 0.75 | 0.11 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 13.3 | 17.57 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 101 | 1 | 5 | 43 | 3 | -4.27 | 25.25 | 1.10 |
Top-15 Drivers at 1-mile Tracks (since February 2015)
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Top 20s | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Kevin Harvick | 10 | 9.71 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 1,352 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 113.8 | 0.29 | 338 | 19.88 |
| Kyle Busch | 7.1 | 10.13 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 881 | 3 | 1 | 37 | 2 | 114.3 | -3.03 | 220.25 | 13.77 |
| Matt Kenseth | 7.4 | 10.81 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 303 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 106.8 | -3.41 | 75.75 | 4.73 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 9.8 | 13.18 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 187 | 2 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 99.2 | -3.38 | 46.75 | 2.75 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 9.1 | 10.06 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 1,031 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 109.1 | -0.96 | 257.75 | 15.16 |
| Joey Logano | 11.4 | 12.82 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 189 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 94.6 | -1.42 | 47.25 | 2.78 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 12.2 | 16.31 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 90 | -4.11 | 17.25 | 1.33 |
| Denny Hamlin | 7.6 | 11.88 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 217 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 1 | 95.2 | -4.28 | 54.25 | 3.19 |
| Ryan Newman | 15.3 | 14.18 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 78.8 | 1.12 | 1.75 | 0.10 |
| Kyle Larson | 10.8 | 10.18 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 468 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 97.1 | 0.62 | 117 | 6.88 |
| Brad Keselowski | 10.9 | 11.47 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 286 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 1 | 97 | -0.57 | 71.5 | 4.21 |
| Kurt Busch | 8.1 | 16.12 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 2 | 88.8 | -8.02 | 0.25 | 0.01 |
| Chase Elliott | 10.8 | 10.09 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 245 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 101.4 | 0.71 | 61.25 | 5.57 |
| Kasey Kahne | 13.6 | 15.71 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 83.4 | -2.11 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jamie McMurray | 12.9 | 14.41 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 1 | 85 | -1.51 | 0.75 | 0.04 |
Drivers to watch this week:
This week I will focus on the five drivers left in the playoffs who haven’t clinched a spot in the championship yet. Kevin Harvick is the top driver on the track this week both historically and recently but with him already clinching there are higher-upside guys to focus on.
Jimmie Johnson: JJ comes into Phoenix in seventh in the standings and needs a win to pursue his eighth career title. That could still be in the cards though since he does outpace Harvick career-wise in average finish, top-fives, top-10s, and top-20s in one fewer race. He also has four wins to Harvick’s eight and 990 laps led to Harvick’s 1,484. Recently however, it’s been a struggle with just one top-five in the last five tries and 57 laps led. When it’s all on the line however, we are accustomed to seeing Johnson’s best and Sunday should be no different..jpg)
Chase Elliott: Chase has just three races under his belt here in the MENCS, but he does have two top-10s and a low finish of 12th in those runs. His 106 laps led are good for fourth in the field in that span and his 107.9 Driver Rating is good for third. Despite the lack of experience at the highest level, he does have five top-10s in five Xfinity races and two top-fives in that span. He comes in eighth and needs a win to move on to Homestead. It would be his first win ever in the MENCS and it couldn’t come at a more opportune time, until potentially next week if he makes it that far.
Denny Hamlin: Denny has been the marked man since the spin at Martinsville, including getting booed at driver introductions and while leading at Texas last week (I was there). Now he has a chance to clinch a spot in the championship and make the second JGR ride to do so. Hamlin has the fourth-best average finish at PIR in the last five go-arounds at 10.2 with one top-five and four top-10s. He has won here previously and has 10 career top-fives in 24 career races here. Hamlin comes into the race in fifth place, 19 points behind fourth place, meaning he may not need a win to clinch a spot but just a good showing and an off day from others to make it.
Ryan Blaney: The young driver has done well to make it this far and showed well at Texas last week, but just didn’t have enough to win after starting near the front. He is in sixth in the standings, 22 points out of fourth, but has arguably fared the worst here of the five drivers on this list. He has two top-10s in the three races he’s run here and finished P23 in the other with zero laps led in that span. Blaney ran one Xfinity race in the desert, finishing second after starting 33rd and led 15 laps. But that’s not a lot of history to go on. He will likely need a win to advance, though finishing in the top-five and having the drivers ahead of him finish towards the back could do it as well, but that’s not likely to happen.
Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is in the catbird’s seat coming into Phoenix. He is sitting in fourth, the driver with the most points that hasn’t clinched yet, and is 19 points clear of Hamlin in fifth. All he needs is a solid run on Sunday and he’ll hold off the others, assuming one of them doesn’t win, for the final spot at Homestead. In the last five trips to the 1-mile track he has a top-five and three top-10s with 56 laps led. Keselowski has never won here in 16 tries but does have five career top-fives and eight career top-10s at the track. Running well is all he has to do to secure a spot in the championship, which is well within his capabilities.