AAA Texas 500

Texas Motor Speedway

Last week’s opening to the final cut down round was a typically great show at Martinsville, with the added tinge of controversy that comes with short track races. Kyle Busch punched his ticket for Homestead as the winner of the race, but Martin Truex Jr. wasn’t far behind, nearly notching his first short track win ever. The controversy that occupied most talking points after the race was the incident involving Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin near the end of the race. Hamlin was in second following a late-race restart, and behind Elliott until the 11-car got into the 24-car causing a wreck of the 24 with just four laps remaining and creating an even bigger hole for both drivers to climb out of to make the championship.

This Sunday brings with it the penultimate 1.5-mile track of the season at Texas Motor Speedway. It is a fairly standard mile and half track in most respects, though the banking in turns 1 and 2 is slightly steeper than it is in turns 3 and 4 at 20 degrees and 24 respectively. Since 1996, when the track opened, 79% of winners have come from inside top-five starting spots, however that has only happened twice in the last seven races (dating back to the start of 2014). The typical laps led splits that are seen at 1.5-mile tracks are also seen at this one as well.

There are several drivers starting towards the rear of the pack this week because of pre-qualifying inspection issues, who drove fast at practice in most or all sessions. Playing a few of those drivers in a single lineup is a really good way to get built-in positional differential points in addition to the potentially high finishing spot. Mixing those kind of drivers and laps led leaders into my lineups is what I went for this week while also not banking on one particular driver too much across all the lineups.

Good luck this week and enjoy the race!

DFS Playbook

DriverDraft KingsNASCAR LiveDescription
Martin Truex Jr.$11,000$28.25What's not to like about Truex this week. It's his dominant distance, and he's run in the top-5 and 10 all week. He hasn't won here but that shouldn't stop you from playing him
Kyle Busch$10,600$27.75Kyle is in the championship, but that doesn't mean he can't win this race too. He's the only one with a win besides JJ recently and is running top-five this week again. Cash or GPP
Kevin Harvick$9,800$27.00Harvick is the only driver with five top-10s in the last five races here including finishing P2. He starts P3 and has run fast in practice making him a good pick in either format
Jimmie Johnson$9,600$23.50Johnson is at the track his leaned on for many of his seven titles with three wins in the last five races here, including the last two. He starts P9 and has run around there in practice
Joey Logano$9,400$23.00Logano, like several others, failed pre-qualifying inspection and will start in the back of the pack. He has four top-fives in the last five races and has led 235 laps, 3rd. Cash or GPP
Chase Elliott$9,100$26.75Elliott starts in the rear of the pack after running top-5 and 10 in practice. He started P33 in the spring and finished P9. He's been on fire in the playoffs. Works for both again
Matt Kenseth$8,900$26.25Kenseth also ran fast in practice but starts in the 35th spot after pre-qualifying inspection trouble. He's second in the field to JJ career-wise here and could crack the top-10. Cash
Denny Hamlin$8,800$27.25Hamlin has been the fastest car all week in practice and qualifying. Running either P1 or P2 in three practice sessions and starting P2 makes him a good mid-tier pick for both
Ryan Blaney$8,500$17.50Blaney has been top-8 in all three practices and starts P8 on Sunday. Blaney hasn't finished better than P12 and has two DNFs in the last five, but has led 148 laps. He's a GPP play
Kurt Busch$8,400$21.75Busch is on the pole once more at Texas for the second time in the last five races. He has three top-10s in that span and 45 laps led. He also ran well in practice but remains GPP
Dale Earnhardt Jr.$7,900$14.00Jr. owns the best PD in the field in the last four of the last five at +18. He also has three top-fives and four top-10s in that span including P5 in the spring. He works for either one
Trevor Bayne$7,200$16.50Bayne has three top-20s in the last five races and has run like it in practice this week. He will start P37 after inspection issues but ran top-20 in practice. Cash or GPP at this price
Chris Buescher$6,600$14.00Buescher has finished between 21 and 30 each of the last four races, but owns a +10.5 PD in that span which makes him worth a GPP play at a lower-tier price point this week
A.J. Allmendinger$6,500$9.50Allmendinger has three top-20s and a worst finish of P22 in the last five races here. He starts in 16th and ran about that in practice, which gives a solid floor to build on in GPP
Aric Almirola$6,200$10.50Almirola also has three top-20s in the last five races and was just announced as Danica Patrick's replacement in the 10 next year. He has run well here and starts P18. GPP option

Optimal Lineups

Draft Kings Cash 
Martin Truex Jr.$11,000
Chase Elliott$9,100
Matt Kenseth$8,900
Dale Earnhardt Jr.$7,900
Trevor Bayne$7,200
David Ragan$5,900
  
Total$50,000
Draft Kings GPP 
Jimmie Johnson$9,600
Joey Logano$9,400
Denny Hamlin$8,800
Ryan Blaney$8,500
Chris Buescher$6,600
A.J. Allmendinger$6,500
  
Total$49,400
Draft Kings GPP #2 
Kyle Busch$10,600
Kevin Harvick$9,800
Jimmie Johnson$9,600
Dale Earnhardt Jr.$7,900
Aric Almirola$6,200
David Ragan$5,900
  
Total$50,000
NASCAR Live 
Martin Truex Jr.$28.25
Chase Elliott$26.75
Ryan Blaney$17.50
Trevor Bayne$16.50
A.J. Allmendinger$9.50
Bonus WinnerMartin Truex Jr.
Bonus ManufacturerToyota
  
Total$98.50

 

Streak To The FinishJimmie Johnson