This weekend brings the final short track race of the season at Martinsville. “The Paperclip” is the shortest track on the schedule with the shallowest banking and the only one with concrete turns and asphalt straightaways. Just eight of the 16 drivers are left chasing a championship now as the final four races of the year get going. Surprising note, less than 90% of winners have come from the top-five starting spots. The exact figure is 87%, meaning there is room to move up in the field, and in fact the pole sitter hasn’t won since April of 2013 here. A win on Sunday punches a drivers ticket to Miami no matter what happens in the next two races (Texas and Phoenix), so strategies on when to pit and how to play things could change given a driver’s history at the track and trying to punch that lottery ticket early in the stage.

Track Breakdown

 Avg.Avg.     Laps  HighLow Avg.DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5sTop 10sTop 20sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Kyle Busch83.254144462901501274.75157.2539.31
Brad Keselowski11.48.45144427701320114.2369.2513.85
Denny Hamlin10.615.2513331660139193.8-4.641.58.30
Jimmie Johnson1414.451124920135094.9-0.4234.60
Joey Logano212.85023435833370106.1-10.889.517.90
Matt Kenseth15.4145023423204381105.41.45811.60
Austin Dillon26.6175022460441174.39.61.50.30
A.J. Allmendinger10.614.450134240243190.1-3.861.20
Jamie McMurray11.616.25013300238185.2-4.600.00
Kyle Larson9.513.2540114290319090.1-3.757.251.81
Chase Elliott1118.2540113200338078.1-7.2551.25
Dale Earnhardt Jr.19.5224011200436180.4-2.500.00
David Ragan23.222.45011100537063.10.800.00
Martin Truex Jr.510.6500352391618098-5.659.7511.95
Ryan Newman7.613.65003420727081.7-60.50.10
Kevin Harvick15.414.6500252640820099.90.86613.20
Kasey Kahne1413.450014290922080.20.67.251.45
Paul Menard16.61850013100825068.7-1.42.50.50
Danica Patrick22.6225001200740162.60.600.00
Clint Bowyer22.623.25001200743166-0.600.00
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.25.632.250011001040144.2-6.600.00
Aric Almirola1620.250004001240166.3-4.200.00
Kurt Busch20.224500024301337175.9-3.810.752.15
Trevor Bayne29.422.450002001331056.6700.00
Ryan Blaney11.32130002001925073.8-9.700.00
Chris Buescher33.323.7540001001133048.89.5500.00
Erik Jones151210001001212075.6300.00
Michael McDowell27.722.6730001001826052.65.0300.00
Cole Whitt32.523.2540001002030050.39.2500.00
Landon Cassill30.825.250000002129048.45.600.00
Ty Dillon232210000002222052.4100.00
Corey LaJoie352810000002828033700.00
Brett Moffitt33.531.520000002835037.2200.00
Matt DiBenedetto33.831.450000002935138.52.400.00
Gray Gaulding36.53420000002939130.72.500.00
Reed Sorenson35.335.3330000003138031.4-0.0300.00
Daniel Suarez193210000003232036.4-1300.00
Jeffrey Earnhardt3734.520000003336127.42.500.00
Carl Long0000000000000000.00
Hermie Sadler0000000000000000.00
Kyle Weatherman0000000000000000.00

Top-15 Drivers Historically at Martinsville Speedway

 Avg.Avg.     Laps HighLow DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5sTop 10sTop 20sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFPts.Pts.Pts./race
Jimmie Johnson11.17.553191924282,839213513.55709.7522.90
Denny Hamlin9.710.132351217191,38731392-0.43346.7515.08
Kurt Busch19.621.71342351846411393-2.111163.41
Dale Earnhardt Jr.15.113.56341131823972013631.542437.15
Kyle Busch11.513.582411213171,11611391-2.0827911.63
Ryan Newman9.314.813118152419631412-5.51491.58
Brad Keselowski14.312.931515912287013801.3771.754.78
Kevin Harvick14.616.163213142462801411-1.561574.91
Matt Kenseth18.914.635061426641023834.3160.254.58
Joey Logano9.113.65170571345732370-4.55114.256.72
Clint Bowyer16.814.4823041317356024322.32893.87
Kasey Kahne18.419.727035156012405-1.3150.56
Jamie McMurray13.617.072902152020122423-3.4750.251.73
Martin Truex Jr.15.320.39230271224015402-5.09602.61
A.J. Allmendinger18.318.22180261250024320.0812.50.69

Top-15 Drivers at Short Tracks (since February of 2015)

 Avg.Avg.     Laps HighLow  DifferenceLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5sTop 10sTop 20sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Denny Hamlin8.210.82172912135122139198.4-2.621287.53
Joey Logano4.710.121728131579251400101.9-5.4219811.65
Kyle Busch7.412.29142710111,35901393112.3-4.89339.7524.27
Jimmie Johnson15.19.71172610152170135095.35.3954.253.19
Matt Kenseth918.1217269101,04231425102.4-9.12260.515.32
Kevin Harvick11.810.471717111667901380106.91.33169.759.99
Brad Keselowski1014.7117168124150135094.9-4.71103.756.10
Kurt Busch13.815.6517147125310138291.3-1.85132.757.81
Kyle Larson11.114.4416136134640141195.5-3.341167.25
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.2019.88170351000240165.80.1200.00
Austin Dillon20.418.71170341160441271.51.691.50.09
Dale Earnhardt Jr.20.417.931403491302382792.473.250.23
Ryan Newman13.913.3517029144103280820.5510.250.60
Jamie McMurray14.212.41170271540238188.11.7910.06
Clint Bowyer22.418170261000243171.74.400.00

Drivers to watch this week:

Kyle Busch: Kyle went from on the cut line at the start of last week’s race to being the second-seed in this round, and now comes a track he’s been great at. He has the best average finish in the last four races (3.25), a win, four top-fives, four top-10s, and the most laps led at 629. His 127 Driver Rating is also the best in the field. His win came from starting 7th so he has the history to move throw the field to the front as well. In his career, half of his races at the track have resulted in top-five finishes and he’s third in the field with 1,116 laps led. All of that points to a must-play on Sunday.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has been stringing together solid finish after solid finish in the playoffs thus far, but finds himself sixth in the standings at this point. Normally Richmond is considered Denny’s hometrack, but Martinsville isn’t far off from that description either. He has a win and three top-fives in the last five races and 166 laps run up front, good for seventh. However his numbers get a big boost when looking at career numbers over his 23 races at Martinsville. Five wins, 12 top-fives, 17 top-10s and 1,387 laps led place him second or third in each of those categories. With him still needing a points boost to make the next round, he should come out swinging at one of his best tracks.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is the defending winner here from the spring race and is the only other driver, aside from Busch, to have four top-fives in the last five races. Keselowski has a respectable 277 laps led in that span and is also the only other driver with an average finish better than P10. Most of his career success at Martinsville has come in the last five tries, overall in 15 races he has a win, five top-fives, and nine top-10s with 287 laps led. In Brad’s case his recent history has made up the bulk of his success at The Paperclip, setting him up for another good run on Sunday.

Jimmie Johnson: Johnson joins the other three in the section with a win in the last five races. He however is lacking in the other categories. One top-five, two top-10s, and 92 laps led are it for the driver who squeaked through the previous round. Don’t let the lack of recent success fool you though, the seven-time MENCS champ has won nine times at the short track with 19 top-fives, 24 top-10s and 2,839 laps led (all tops in the field). JJ is currently on the outside looking in on the Championship and there are eight points separating 5th-7th, so a great showing Sunday would go a long way on clinching a chance at an 8th title.

Austin Dillon: Dillon has long since not been a factor in the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t still running around the track getting DFS points. At a track that only has four drivers with a positional differential of +6 or better, Dillon’s +9.6 mark is the best in the last five races. That’s not the only reason he’s on this list though. Dillon has two top-fives, two top-10s, four top-20s in the last five races at the Virginia track. In fact the only laps Dillon has led in the last 17 short track races have come at The Paperclip, all six of them. At $7,500 he offers good upside for not a top- or, really even, middle-tier price.