Fickle. It’s a word often used to describe things on shaky ground. And it’s the perfect word to describe prospect rankings from year-to-year. However, things don’t just change on a year-to-year basis, they change during the year too. This week’s article will focus on those players who have risen and fallen the most in the rankings during the regular season to this point, given that there is really only a little more than a week left in the minor league regular season.
*All rankings based on MLB Pipeline
Biggest Risers
Ronald Acuna (OF ATL AAA)- The 19-year-old super prospect has been the talk of baseball this season with his impressive rise through the Braves system. Coming into the season he was not ranked in the top-100 and now sits eighth on that same list. Sure a .325/.374/.527 slash line through three levels and 131 games will jump you up, but pair that with a 20-40 season...and 85 runs...and 77 RBI and that’s where the rocket comes in. The skills have been there, but he put them all together this year, and at some point next year he will be patrolling center field in SunTrust Park.
Walker Buehler (RHP LAD AAA)- Making a meteoric rise himself, Buehler is now 13th in baseball, having started 93rd this preseason. He had only pitched five innings in pro ball prior to this year. In 2017 however, he has looked like the dominant guy he was coming into the draft, and before his elbow issues, posting a 3.22 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 86.2 IP across three levels. His astonishing 123 Ks in just 86.2 innings gives him a combined 12.77 K/9 on the year while walking just 29 total batters. Buehler is working in relief at Triple-A Oklahoma City currently, but figures to be a starter next year in L.A.
Forrest Whitley (RHP HOU AA)- Having just been drafted in 2016 at 17th overall, he was a relatively unknown commodity coming into 2017. He is no longer unknown, raising up to 40th in the rankings, from 84th preseason, on the strength of a 85.2 innings campaign, across three levels, in which he posted a 2.73 ERA (2.30 FIP), 1.23 WHIP, 13.86 K/9. The 6’7”, 19-year-old second-year pro features four solid-to-plus pitches, changeup, curveball, slider, and touches 97 with his fastball that has cut and run. Houston will be patient with him, as they should be, but in three years except him to be headlining the Astros’ rotation.
Juan Soto (OF WAS A)- At just 18 years old, he is the youngest player on the list, but one who has made a big jump this year, despite injuries. He fractured his ankle in May and then had to undergo surgery to remove the Hamate bone in his wrist in late-July. In the 23 games he played at Class-A Hagerstown he posted a .360 AVG and .427 OBP with three homers, 14 RBI, 15 runs, and a steal. The young, 6’1”-185 lb OF possesses 60-grade Hit, 55-grade Power, and 50-grade Run tools (on the 20-80 scale), with room to improve on raw power as he adds bulk to his lanky frame. Going from unranked to 42nd overall in 2017 proves his upside, it will be up to him to stay healthy and build on it before making the majors in 2019, most likely.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS SD AA)- The son of the former major leaguer by the same name, Jr. has put together a big year in 2017, following his trade in the middle of 2016. Across two levels and 125 games, he has posted a .273/.377/.504 slash line with 22 homers, 81 runs, 73 RBI, and 31 steals. At 6’3” he may wind up moving to third base, like his father, due to his average defense at his current position, but the bat will profile solidly at the hot corner. If Tatis can start to recognize spin and off-speed stuff better, his power, and average should improve, but that should come with experience against better pitching.
Biggest Fallers
Kyle Lewis (OF SEA A+)- I have talked about Kyle Lewis twice this season, and both times in hopeful terms. His ranking however, hasn’t been so optimistic as he’s slipped from 29th to 47th. After playing 30 games last year, he’s managed to make it on the field for 43 this season, between 11 in rookie ball and 32 at High-A Modesto. Lewis’ K-Rate and BB-rate have both gone in bad directions in 2017 while his AVG his fallen to .268 from .299 as have his ISO, wOBA, and BABIP. His homer total has gone up from three to seven from last year to this year, but that’s about the only good news. In 2018 he should be fully over the ACL injury from 2016, and could once again produce well.
Lucas Giolito (RHP CWS MLB)- Giolito came into 2017 as the 15th-ranked prospect in all of baseball, following the offseason trade to Chicago. However his Triple-A stint in Charlotte didn’t do him any favors. Now sitting at 59, before his call-up last week, a lot of his luster has been knocked off. While his K/9 rate fits with the rest of his career, the BB/9, HR/9, HR/FB, and GB/FB rates are all at or above career-worsts, not to mention his ERA and WHIP. An average drop in velocity across all his pitches of about 1.5 mph, based on his MLB starts, leaves room for concern. Expect him to start in Triple-A once more in 2018 until he puts up better numbers consistently.
J.P. Crawford (SS {PHI AAA)- Perhaps the biggest faller on the list, the 22-year-old Crawford has had a disappointing year in Triple-A Lehigh Valley this season. Ranked in the top-10 to start the year, he now sits at 61 with a .237/.348/.395 slash line backed up by a .271 BABIP and .338 wOBA. All of those numbers have dropped nearly every year in pro ball. His counting stats have improved this year, over last, save for steals which are half of what they were last season. The other issue at hand is his K-rate has increased each of the last three seasons, and his BB-rate has fallen slightly. While there is still time for him to sort it out, these trends should be a concern for owners, or prospective ones.
Corey Ray (OF MIL A+)- Ray is the most intriguing guy on this list, as you will see. He is on the falling category due to his 36-spot drop during this season. But the numbers don’t necessarily speak to that. He started slowly, coming off a meniscus injury late last season, but has since put it together. The lefty swinging outfielder is slashing .240/.312/.371 at the moment, but has a .346 BABIP and .310 wOBA over 107 games. Ray’s counting stats are also improved over last season’s 57-game campaign, as he has seven homers (five last year), 56 runs (26), 48 RBI (17), 24 steals (10). The biggest difference is a big jump in his K-rate from 21.3% in 2016 to 30.9% in 2017 at the same level. Given his season as a whole, and the advanced metrics, I suspect the drop in ranking was a bit hasty and he should rise again come next season.