Camping World 500

Phoenix International Raceway

A stop in the desert for the first time this season is what Sunday brings as the 1-mile track of Phoenix International Raceway looms. Last week’s race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway provided all the excitement expected out of a Vegas happening. Brad Keselowski started on the pole and led 89 laps before a wheel issue caused him to lose speed and power in the waning laps of the race and ultimately ceding the lead to Martin Truex Jr. who came away with the win. After the race there were fireworks as well when Kyle Busch decided it was a good idea to settle a score with Joey Logano on pit lane with fists.

Aside from Pocono, with it’s three turns, Phoenix is the most challenging track to set the car up for if you’re a crew chief as there are different banking angles on each set of turns, not including the dogleg. The dogleg part of the course is an especially wide section of track following turn two that allows the drivers to pull off a “dive bomb” maneuver to pull off passes on what is otherwise a very narrow track. P.I.R is also a one-groove track for a majority of the way around, which makes passing a very hard thing to pull off routinely. As the track data showed, there are only three drivers in the field with a positional differential of higher than +6 this week, and only one with more than 100 laps over the last four races here, so both are at a premium to get in a lineup.

The track sets up for exciting racing, but only 20% of eventual winners have come from outside the top-five historically and the first winner to come from the pole wasn’t until 2007 and Jeff Gordon. A special note this week goes to the 500 in the name of the race. It refers to the race being 500 kilometers in length as it is 312 laps of racing on a 1.022-mile track. The two races at Phoenix, as well as the two road courses, are the only four races numbers in this manner as opposed to the number of laps or more commonly, the number of miles raced.

Several of the lineup decisions this week changed following the final practice which was dominated by long runs and had similar track conditions to what is expected come Sunday afternoon.

DFS Playbook

DriverDraft KingsNASCAR LiveDescription
Kevin Harvick$11,100$28.50Harvick has the most wins, laps led, best average finish, and best Loop Rating in the past four races here. He hasn't found the right car yet this week though so GPP is a better play
Joey Logano$10,500$28.00Logano is on the pole this week and has had a consistently fast car this week. He has a win, two top-fives, and three top-10s in the last two years here. A cash or GPP play works
Brad Keselowski$10,300$27.00Brad was in position to win last week but an issue with a tire cost him dearly but now he has speed again at PIR. He has two top-10s in the past four races and fifth most laps led
Kyle Busch$10,100$27.00Kyle is more known for his punch at LVMS than his finish. He has the second best average finish here at 3.33 with three top-fives and the third most laps led. Both format here
Chase Elliott$9,700$27.25Chase has won the first two practices of the week and qualified P7. He finished 8th and 9th last year in his first season. With his speed this week a cash play makes sense at PIR
Martin Truex Jr.$9,400$27.50Truex Jr. has shown great speed here in pracitce but qualified P16. He didn't like the looseness of the car in the final practice so with tinkering being done a GPP play is it for him
Kyle Larson$9,100$26.75Larson nearly won at Daytona and has been consistently good since. He has speed once again this week and has run top-three in practice. Mid-tier pricing is great value for him
Jimmie Johnson$9,000$26.50JJ is without a top-10 finish yet in 2017 but has a car to contend this week at Phoenix. He has the second most wins in the field in his career here and has the best avg finish
Matt Kenseth$8,800$26.25Kenseth has looked good in practice at starts P12 in the field. He is a very good driver historically at PIR but the last few years haven't been as kind. A GPP play is it for Kenseth
Kasey Kahne$8,100$22.50Kahne is another mid-tier salary driver who could return great value this week. He has a fourth place finish in the last two years and has five top-fives overall in his history at PIR
Ryan Blaney$8,000$20.25Blaney starts second on Sunday and has looked good in practice. In the races last year he finished 8th and 10th here. A top-five finish is in his future and that should be this week
Erik Jones$7,500$19.25The rookie has shown flashes of what make him so promising and that's the case again this week. His practice and qualifying runs were very solid. The salary makes GPP sensible
Aric Almirola$6,900$12.25Almirola is my sleeper pick this week, from my track data article. He owns the best positional differential in the field at +6.5 and has a top-10 in the last four races. Either works
Michael McDowell$5,900$10.25McDowell is a budget play at less than $6,000 in DK but has posted a very good 34 FPPR so far in three races. We are simply going for a points grab this low in salary
Cole Whitt$5,500$5.50Whitt is a second budget friendly play who has the fourth best positional differential in the field at +5.67 which is all we are expecting out of him for someone as far down the list

 

Optimal Lineups

Draft Kings Cash 
Kyle Busch$10,100
Chase Elliott$9,700
Kyle Larson$9,100
Ryan Blaney$8,000
Aric Almirola$6,900
Michael McDowell$5,900
  
Total$49,700

The Draft Kings cash lineup avoids the elephant on the track in Kevin Harvick, for a reason spelled out in the driver breakdown. Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott lead the lineup as two drivers who have a very good history here and have shown top-end speed in qualifying and practice this week. Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney are next as two who have also carried a lot of speed all week. Larson has a top-five and two top-10s in the last four races here and Blaney owns two top-10s in his only races here. Aric Almirola and Michael McDowell round out the rest of the six-driver squad. Each of Almirola and McDowell offer nice upside for low-end and budget plays.

*Pivots this week: Playing Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and Jimmie Johnson at the top of the lineup is also possible by taking out Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson from the lineup and playing Whitt instead of McDowell.

Draft Kings GPP 
Kevin Harvick$11,100
Kyle Busch$10,100
Martin Truex Jr.$9,400
Erik Jones$7,500
Michael McDowell$5,900
Cole Whitt$5,500
  
Total$49,500

The overwhelming driver of choice leads the Draft Kings GPP lineup this week, Kevin Harvick. The price tag of $11,100 in DK and $28.50 in NL are a bit prohibitive and the car tweaking moves him out of cash consideration in my thinking. Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. are the next two up with top end speed already being shown at practice and qualifying, but Truex also having some car tweaking going on after the final test session. Erik Jones, Michael McDowell, and Cole Whitt round up the group with some risky but upside-capable picks from the mid-tier salaries down.

*Pivots this week: There is room in the budget to switch from Jones to Blaney in the GPP.

NASCAR Live 
Kevin Harvick$28.50
Brad Keselowski$27.00
Kyle Larson$26.75
Aric Almirola$12.25
Cole Whitt$5.50
Bonus WinnerJoey Logano
Bonus ManufacturerFord
  
Total$100.00

The NASCAR Fantasy Live roster has all drivers mentioned previously but adds Brad Keselowski as the second priciest driver in the five-driver roster. Brad has shown consistency this week with a P6 starting spot and a top-five showing in every practice.

*Pivots this week: Jimmie Johnson can be swapped in for Kyle Larson and save $0.25.

Streak To The FinishKyle Busch

Matt Selz can be found on Fantasy Alarm Forums in the NASCAR section and on Twitter @theselzman to answer questions.