The penultimate race of the 2021 season is upon us Sunday. Martinsville will certainly be a trick for some this week and a treat for others which is certainly fitting with the race being on Halloween. The Paperclip, as it’s colloquially referred to, has been a playoff race for a while now but this will only be the second year that it’s the elimination race prior to the Championship. That definitely ups the pressure and tension on the track and expect bump and runs to happen all over the track all afternoon.

Tire Notes:

The tire combo here is special; for a special track. It’s the only track that requires this combo of tire codes due to the track surface, the track design, and the weather that can wreak havoc with both. With the long straightaways, concrete, tight corners, and it being flat it’s often hard to get two racing grooves, but these tires are designed to help with that.

Strategy Notes:

Ah, short track racing. Even with it being a short track, this one is just different. The tight corners, an actual curb, and narrow straightaways don’t exactly give a lot of room to drivers to make moves and nice clean passes. We’ve seen tight racing at Bristol and Richmond, but this is a far slower track than either of those as it’s the shortest track on the schedule and it also just has less real estate in its footprint. What does that mean for us? It means that drivers up front can stay up front for quite a while. We’ve seen a handful of races here in the last few years in which drivers lead over 400 laps and at least one driver has led over 230 laps in each of the last five races which shouldn’t really be shocking to see. No more than 20 drivers have finished on the lead lap in the last five races here, however, that doesn’t mean that PD has been capped by that as we’ve seen drivers still pull off big chunks of PD and not finish on the lead lap. We’re looking for one main dominator and perhaps a secondary one and then sprinkle in a few drivers we think can get 10 or more spots of PD and we’ve got a lineup to compete.

Facts To Know

  • In the last three races here, two drivers have topped 100 laps led in each of those events
  • Comparing the 20 or more laps led average to the 50 or more and then the 100 or more you see 3.4 drivers per race leading at least 20 laps, 1.8 leading at least 50, and 1.6 leading 100 or more. That indicates drivers are either leading between 20-50 or over 100.
  • Over the last five races, 5.4 drivers on average have moved up 10 or more spots a race.
  • Since the start of 2013, the three best starting spots for laps led on average have been P3, P1, and P4 in that order.
  • In that same time frame, the worst two starting spots for PD have been P2 and P1 respectively and the best two have been P35 and P34 respectively.
  • In the last five races, just 30-percent of top-10 finishers have started outside the top-12 in the grid.
  • In that same span, seven of the top-10 highest average scoring DraftKings starting spots were in the top-10 in the grid while six of the top-10 on FanDuel were from the top-10 spots in the grid.
  • Six drivers in the field over the last five races here have Driver Ratings over 100.
  • Five drivers in the field over the last five races here have finished in the top-10 at least four times, all having Driver Ratings over 100.

The table below shows the number of drivers to reach each stat-type over the last five Martinsville races with Race 1 being the most recent.

 RaceRaceRaceRaceRace 
 12345AVG
Positive Place Differential202120261620.6
Six+ Place Differential Spots129101179.8
Double-Digit Place Differential736745.4
Double-Digit Fast Laps12915111312
20+ Laps Led454223.4
50+ Laps Led223111.8
100+ Laps Led222111.6

For the tables below:

* The DFS Scoring Table: Race 1 is the most recent race in the sample size with Race 5 being the earliest. We are using the Last 5 Martinsville races for the data.