What better way to insert chaos into the playoff round than Talladega? The odds of being involved in an accident here are higher than anywhere else on the schedule, including Daytona, and the marketing for these races prays on that with the “big one” that gets flaunted every time they race at the Alabama superspeedway. As Aric Almirola tweeted today, “who’s ready for the 200mph chess match?” and that’s a perfect summation of what Talladega is. Pack racing at 200 miles an hour where one wrong move can take out half the field at one time.

Strategy Notes:

With that chaos and craziness in mind, let’s talk about a bit of strategy here this weekend. Cars will wreck and you stand very little chance of finishing with all five or six drivers still in the race, though it’s possible, but the good news is that everyone’s cars will wreck so it won’t hurt so much if one or two of your drivers do. The name of the game here is to maximize points by getting the guys that finish in the top-10 and preferably provide the most possible PD. That’s not always necessary, but certainly helps. Because of this you will see lineups that simply play a combination of the drivers who are in the last quarter of the starting grid and you’ll see a ton of money left on the table. Now, if you listen to the podcast, you’ll see that there are ways to strategize around the “big one” and it’s not just pure luck to avoid it, though some is certainly required. There are stats to look at this week that can help bring drivers to the forefront to build around like Laps Completed and Avg. Running Position and top-15 rate. Laps Led and Fastest Laps aren’t huge factors in these races because leads change so frequently and the fastest car is often the one in the middle of the pack getting the most out of the draft.

Facts To Know

  • There are five drivers in the field this week with at least three top-10s in the last five races at Talladega.
  • Only three drivers in the field have an average Driver Rating of 90 or above and one has one better than 100 in the last five races.
  • Twelve spots between P26 and P40 in the starting grid average more than six spots of PD per race since 2012 at Talladega.
  • All but two starting spots P30 through P40 have averaged double-digit PD marks in that same span.
  • Only one spot between P1 and P10 ranks in the top-10 in scoring on DK and only two have on FD.
  • Any driver is in play this week.

The table below shows the number of drivers to reach each stat-type over the last five Talladega races with Race 1 being the most recent.

 RaceRaceRaceRaceRace 
 12345AVG
Positive Place Differential231920222121
Six+ Place Differential Spots151417141515
Double-Digit Place Differential12131011911
Double-Digit Fast Laps122121.6
20+ Laps Led232332.6
50+ Laps Led001000.2
100+ Laps Led000000

For the tables below:

* The DFS Scoring Table: Race 1 is the most recent race in the sample size with Race 5 being the earliest. We are using the Last 5 Talladega races for the data.