“Welcome to Atlanta where the players play” as the song by Jermaine Dupri goes. It’s the second time the Cup series is at Atlanta this season but this time the track should drive differently than it did this Spring as the temps are hotter and typically that means a slicker, tougher to drive track. We saw them run here last year in June which is similarly hot weather but that’s really the only recent race to happen at AMS in the summer months as it was typically an early season track for the last decade-plus.

There are 260 laps around the 1.5-mile quad-oval for the Cup race and so laps led are in play this week as well as fastest laps, though the latter tends to be more spread out across the field than the former. In the last five races here, only one driver in each has topped 100 laps led and in three of those they were also the only driver to top 50 laps out front as well. So mainly we’re looking at single dominator builds this week with the rest of the build going for PD and finish position. If you read through the Track Breakdown, you’ll see the stats on how many drivers finish where, based on starting spots.

As always if you want more strategy talk or info, check out the aforementioned Track Breakdown as well as the DFS Rankings and the Podcast.

Average Points By Starting Spot

These charts show the average points scored by each starting spot over the last five races at Atlanta regardless of the driver in said starting spot. They are meant as a strategy guide and not a hard-and-fast rule to build by.



Playbook

Chase Elliott ($9,800 DK, $13,500 FD, P1)

The home-town guy is starting on the pole on Sunday just like he did here last June. Over the last four races here, the pole-sitter has led just under 30 laps on average and finished about 7-8 spots further back than where they started. Elliott himself only has a so-so record at his home track with four top-20s in the last five races with three top-10s, but hasn’t been known to run up front much and he’s also dropped back a few spots on average. He’s a better play for GPPs than cash simply given the lack of PD upside and the chance that he doesn’t actually dominate in laps led.

Kyle Busch ($10,300 DK, $13,000 FD, P2)

Even with the struggles over the last few years, Atlanta has always been a good place for him for very good showings. He’s also been gaining speed over the last several races and he looks like a top-five car every week at this point. That’s good news starting P2 as he’s a candidate to lead a fair bit of laps. Expect him to stay in the top-five and be fine for a cash or GPP build.

Denny Hamlin ($9,600 DK, $12,200 FD, P3)

Hamlin has posted three top-fives in the last four Atlanta races with the fourth finish being P11. He’s been solid most of the year but not dominant and that may deflate his ownership even with this starting spot. The JGR cars have been finding speed of late and that goes for Hamlin too as he ranks fifth in average finish over the last five races this season and ranks P6 in Green Flag Speed over the last nine similar races. He’ll need to stick around where he’s starting plus lead some laps to hit value but that’s clearly within his capabilities.

Martin Truex Jr ($9,000 DK, $12,500 FD, P5)

As I stated on the podcast and the hit on Alarm After Hours, Truex is an interesting play for me this week. If we just look at his track history here, he’s posted five top-10s with an average finish of 5.4 while moving up nearly eight spots a race, Truex has been a master of Atlanta. Here’s the problem though, since September 2019, he’s not been good in this 550-horsepower package and even earlier this year he finished further back than where he started. He’s a good GPP play to be different from others in the hopes that he can start to turn things around, but leave him off of the cash builds.

Kyle Larson ($12,000 DK, $14,500 FD, P6)

Larson dominated the race here earlier this year by leading nearly 270 laps before finishing P2. He’s been fast basically everywhere this year and this week should be no different. He’s the odds on favorite to win once again and there’s no reason to believe that he won’t once again show up with the fastest, or one of the fastest, cars on the track. Larson will likely be the most played driver as he has a bit of PD and a good chance of being the laps led dominator. Fading him a bit in GPPs makes sense here just to get a different build going.

Kurt Busch ($8,400 DK, $9,000 FD, P8)

Busch had a top-five car here earlier in the year and was quite fast early in the race before he was wrecked out early in some rainy circumstances. With the consistency that Busch can show, especially here, he’s always a threat for a top-10 or even top-five finish and has four top-10s in the last five races. He’s been faster of late and with the pressure to perform to make the playoffs and fight for a job next year, this is a good weekend to play him for the shot that he wins  and certainly has a great shot of hitting value.

Austin Dillon ($7,900 DK, $8,000 FD, P13)

DIllon should be considered anytime we’re racing at 1.5-mile tracks at this point as the RCR cars have been quite good at that distance. Starting P13 is also solid here as he started at that spot in the Spring and finished P6. Let’s also not fail to mention that he filled in for Michael Annett in the Xfinity race on Saturday at the last minute and thereby giving him a de facto practice session. Given his recent successes at this distance, he is likely to be a bit more popular of a play not to mention the mid-tier price will certainly help for building lineups. He’s fine for either build.

Brad Keselowski ($9,200 DK, $12,000 FD, P14)

Keselowski might be at the point that he doesn’t much care about the rest of the year with Penske given recent performances since the news about him leaving the team at the end of the year was more fully reported. Team Penske has also been hit and miss in this package this year and frankly depending on the driver you look at. However, there is always the luck that Keselowski seems to catch late in races with either a daring strategy paying off or simply catching cautions at the right time. He should be sprinkled in some GPP builds due to the fact that you never know when he’s going to be at the right place at the right time.

Ryan Blaney ($10,500 DK, $10,500 FD, P15)

Blaney won the race here earlier in the year after running Larson down late. He’s posted two top-fives in the last five races here with an average finish of 11.4 while moving up 5.2 spots a race. He’s also been the best Penske driver in this package much of the year. Starting P15 gives him the chance to hit PD upside and finish in the top-five. Expect Blaney to be a popular play to with either Kyle Busch or Kyle Larson.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,600 DK, $6,000 FD, P16)

Stenhouse is one of those guys that we have to pick and choose carefully and this is a solid week to play him. He’s posted five top-20s including three top-15s with an average finish of 14.4 in the last five trips to the Georgia track and with how well he’s run this distance this year, we could be looking at a top-10 for Stenhouse this week. The budget price will likely make him popular across all formats as people look to fill out their roster with a guy who simply just needs to move up a few spots to hit value and has proven he can do that here.

Alex Bowman ($9,400 DK, $11,000 FD, P17)

If you take a look at the category rankings table in the Track Breakdown you’ll see that Bowman is top-10 or near top-10 in most important stats categories this week here and based on his average finish compared to his starting spot for Sunday, he’s got about five spots of PD if he finishes at his average finish mark. Bowman has been fast all year in the 48-car including here in the Spring when he started P14 and finished P3. If he can pull off another similar run through the field this week, he’ll easily hit value and that makes him a popular play in all likelihood.

Chris Buescher ($8,600 DK, $7,300 FD, P18)

Buescher has a couple of top-10s here including earlier this year and that makes him appealing not only at this price but also this starting spot. He has slowed his mojo somewhat through the Summer though and he’s clearly not as fast as he was earlier in the year including when he led quite a few laps at Homestead, a similar track, but perhaps we can use that as leverage this week to get a bit of differentiation in our builds and try and capitalize on some upside in the mid-tier.

William Byron ($10,000 DK, $11,500 FD, P19)

Byron has been on a roll much of the season in terms of rolling off top-10 finishes, except for the last few weeks. Now comes a track that he’s been hit-and-miss at in the past and arguably has the worst record here of any of the four Hendrick drivers. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t play him though as the 24-car still has good speed and he’s got quite a bit of PD upside starting mid-pack. It’s quite possible that Byron is also the lowest played of the Hendrick cars because of the slightly higher price tag and his not as impressive history here with just one top-10 in his last four races here.

Kevin Harvick ($10,900 DK, $11,700 FD, P21)

Harvick has long been the king of Atlanta and seemingly always runs well here including getting the win in June last year and nabbing a top-10 in the Spring this year. He’s posted the best average finish in the field over the last five races at 5.0 and the best Driver Rating at 125.6. With him starting P20 he will be popular and he’s quite a bit more affordable than Larson which will also help his ownership levels rise. He’s fine for either build.

Erik Jones ($6,900 DK, $4,500 FD, P22)

Jones has a solid run at Atlanta recently with three top-15 finishes, though the run in the Spring wasn’t all that great. He’s still been better in the 750-horsepower package this year than this 550-horsepower one but given that he’s run well at the tracks where tire wear plays a role, we could be in for an interesting race from Jones on Sunday. He’s still better suited for GPP builds than Cash even though he only needs a few spots of PD to hit value.

Cole Custer ($6,700 DK, $6,300 FD, P23)

Custer is a guy who can be quite divisive this week mostly because of how he’s been running this season to this point compared to how he’s run Atlanta. In two Cup races here, he’s posted two top-20s including one earlier this year which is good news since he’s starting in a similar spot to where he did in the Spring. However, since the run at Atlanta, the 41-car has been so-so at best elsewhere and that makes him riskier. He’s a GPP only play this week but could be a lower-played option to differentiate yourself from the pack.

Daniel Suarez ($7,700 DK, $6,500 FD, P27)

Suarez has looked good here in the last five races with three top-20s and an average finish of 18.8. He’s also been solid recently with the 17th best average finish over the last five races this season in the 99-car. If he can move up into the top-20 he can hit value and the price is better on FD. 

Ryan Newman ($6,100 DK, $5,800 FD, P29)

The rule with Newman has long been that if he’s starting outside the top-20 we play him and low and behold he’s starting P29. His average finish in the last five races here has been just inside the top-20 so there’s about 10 spots of potential PD from him or perhaps more with three finishes in the top-15 in that span. He’ll be a popular budget option for PD to round out a build in both formats and for good reason.