NASCAR DFS: Jockey Made in America 250 Playbook

UPDATED FOLLOWING QUALIFYING. CORE PLAYS AT THE BOTTOM!

For the first time in 65 years, and for the second time ever, the Cup series is racing at Road America this weekend. Those of you who are fans of the Xfinity Series has seen this track each year since 2010 as it’s an annual stop on the schedule. If you want more info on track layout or a video of a hot lap, check out the Track Breakdown to see those visuals.

From watching practice on Saturday, it’s going to be a tricky race for these drivers with the 750-horsepower package in place and the tight confines and hard braking sections throughout the 4.048-mile lap. The tires on the cars are the same ones that were used at COTA earlier this year. There will be quite a few cautions this week as drivers are likely to get stuck in the sand trap run-off spots or get into the walls in the narrow straights.

In terms of strategy for this weekend, there are only 62 laps in the full race with stages of 14-15-33, and with the breakups of those stages likely to come from cautions, it might be a choppy race and there are some cheap laps led to be gotten, though when everything is taken into account, they won’t make that big of a difference in scores for full lineups.

Average Points By Starting Spot

These points have been based on the points put up by each starting spot for the last five road races regardless of who the driver was in each starting spot. It’s meant to be a strategy tool and not a hard-and-fast rule to set lineups by, as each race is different with different circumstances.

Playbook

Chase Elliott ($10,600 DK, $14,500 FD)
Look it’s Elliott on a road course and that’s usually found him in victory lane and if not, he’s in the top-five. At this point, it doesn’t matter where he’s starting on Sunday because of how strong a road racer he is. Elliott is always capable of being a laps-led dominator, but we don’t expect to see that on Sunday from anyone, though he could still lead 20-25 laps without issue. Update: Due to two cautions during qualifying, Elliott didn't record a lap and will be starting P34 so while he offers major PD, he likely won't lead but more than a few laps depending on pit strategy. He's a must play in all formats.

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $14,000 FD)
Larson is coming off a win at Sonoma last time on a road course and led laps at COTA which has changed the narrative about him at this discipline. He had a top-10 car at practice on Saturday and ranks sixth in average finish over the road races this year. He’ll still be a chalky play no matter where he’s starting simply because he’s fast and clearly has the skills to contend on road courses just as well as he does on ovals. Update: William Byron is also in play as the pole-sitter after running a couple of blistering laps in qualifying and looking good in practice as well. He doesn't quite have the success at road courses the other Hendrick drivers do but starting at the pole and looking good should see him lead perhaps every lap of the first stage.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,300 DK, $13,000 FD)
Truex has been in a bit of a slump over the last month or so and has to a degree looked lost as to what’s needed in the car each week. A road course though could be just what he needs to get straightened out as there was hope of that a couple of weeks ago at Sonoma when he finished P3. His skills in this discipline keep him in races no matter what the equipment has been like coming into these races. This year he’s started between 14th and 19th each time and finished 12th or better twice while he crashed out in the rain at COTA. 

Kyle Busch ($10,100 DK, $12,500 FD)
Over the last five road races in the Cup series, Busch hasn’t exactly been as elite as we’re used to seeing him as he ranks 27th in average finish in that span. That’s mainly because he’s been wrecked out a couple of times but when he finishes races, it’s near the front. He did wreck out in practice and will have to start in the rear on Sunday, though if he qualifies that spot will count and he’ll be scored from it, but the fact that he’s running the Xfinity Series race will certainly add to his on-track time and should help with the setup of the backup 18-car. Update: Kyle Busch didn't run a qualifying lap in the session this morning and will be scored starting P40. That means he can't go anywhere but forward and has the most PD upside of anyone in the field. He will be the most popular play on both sites.

Joey Logano ($9,800 DK, $11,800 FD)
Logano is perhaps my favorite play of the week as he’s been solid as a rock on road courses of late with four top-fives in the last five races including two runners-up. The consistency is what we need this week, especially under 10K on DK. If he starts in the top-three that’s still fine as well as he has the capability of leading laps as well. Over the last five road races, Logano ranks first in average finish, third in Driver Rating and Top-15 Rate, and fourth in laps led.

Denny Hamlin ($9,700 DK, $12,000 FD)
Hamlin has been right there with Logano in terms of rankings in those key stats but not quite as consistent as all five Hamlin’s finishes have been in the top-15 (as compared to Logano’s top-10s) but only two are in the top-five for Hamlin. The 11-car has just seemed a bit off most of the year though they’ve still been consistently good and somehow still have the points lead on the season. If he qualifies around where he practiced, P6, he has a great shot to win and might go overlooked in favor of some guys starting behind him.

Ryan Blaney ($9,200 DK, $10,200 FD)
Blaney has managed a finish in each five-spot range we track in the last five races on road courses with a 15.6 average finish and an average PD of a few spots a race. He is the kind of guy that simply lurks in a good spot throughout the race and then if he catches a break, he’ll finish highly.

AJ Allmendinger ($9,000 DK, $8,900 FD)
Allmendinger’s road course bona fides are well established and he won the first two stages of the Xfinity race on Saturday. Each time he’s been in the Cup series at a road course recently he’s been very good with two top-10s in the last two tries. He’ll likely be the most popular mid-tier play on both sites simply because of his name and history at this discipline.

Kurt Busch ($8,800 DK, $8,500 FD)
Busch is a solid road racer but nothing special. He’s posted an average finish of 11.0 and a PD mark of 4.6 in the last five races with four top-15s. He did however put up the fastest lap up on the board in practice, though it might have been a mock qualifying run. He also now has pressure on him to find a ride for next year as Chip Ganassi Racing was bought by Trackhouse Racing earlier this week and only one Ganassi car will be on track next year. Thus he could have added motivation to perform better.

Austin Cindric ($8,300 DK, $8,700 FD)
Cindric didn’t exactly have a great showing in his first Cup series road race as he dropped back 22 spots in that one. However, he’s far too good and far too experienced of a road racer to simply discount him for one bad race. He’s always a threat to win in Xfinity and will be in a good Penske car on Sunday making him a solid play, though he’ll get more popular the further back he qualifies.

Alex Bowman ($8,100 DK, $10,000 FD)
If you spotted the cover of the Podcast on the site, you’d have noticed two drivers on the cover with one being Logano and the other is Bowman which should tell you my thoughts on him this week. He’s posted four-straight top-10s at road courses and has been quick in any package this year. Bowman also has a habit of moving up through the field well which means that even if he qualifies mid-pack, we’re not concerned about it for the race.

Ross Chastain ($7,900 DK, $7,400 FD)
Chastain was a man on a mission at COTA and then ran well at Sonoma as well. In the last three Cup road races, he’s posted two top-10s and in the last eight total, he’s run he’s moved up 5.4 spots a race on average. Chastain will be more popular now than he might have been a few weeks ago plus add in his experience at this layout and he will be right there with Allmendinger for popular mid-tier plays.

Michael McDowell ($7,600 DK, $7,700 FD)
McDowell is one of the few drivers to have a lot of experience on this track without having to run the Xfinity race this weekend. He’s run this track five times at the Xfinity level and happens to also be a very good road racer. He’s posted three top-10s in the last five road races but still has an average finish of 17.0 due to two crashes. He continues the run of very strong mid-tier plays this week.

Chris Buescher ($7,500 DK, $7,300 FD)
All of the last five road races have wound up with Buescher finishing in the top-20 including three in the top-15. He’s also moved up 9.4 spots a race on average as well. We don’t typically focus on value on road races but, he’s one of only six drivers to average 5x on DK over the last five races which certainly helps his upside this week.

Chase Briscoe ($6,700 DK, $6,400 FD)
Briscoe has raced here a couple of times at the Xfinity level and finished P7 and P3 each of the last two years respectively. In the three road races he’s now done at the Cup level in his rookie year, he’s posted two top-20s and a 15.0 average finish. It’s unclear if the SHR avoidance this year will spread to Briscoe again this weekend at Road America if he qualifies decently, but there’s a shot that there’s a cluster of similarly played drivers in this price range.

Erik Jones ($6,600 DK, $4,900 FD)
There was a decent discussion on the podcast this week about Jones at this price point and whether or not he was worth a play. Well now that he’s in the playbook, that should give you every indication that he’s worth the play, and here’s why. He’s finished in the top-20 in each of the last five road races, with three of those being this year in the 43-car equipment. He’s also averaged moving up 12.6 spots a race. If that wasn’t enough, his 81.4 average Driver Rating ranks 13th best in the field and is better than anyone that’s below $7,900 on DK. It wasn’t the smoothest of practices for him but they may just steer more people away from him. He’s a very good option for GPP builds.

Ryan Preece ($6,100 DK, $5,000 FD)
It’s not often that so much time on the podcast is dedicated to convincing you to play Preece, but this is a week that it’s worthwhile. He’s posted three top-15s in the last five road races and has moved up more than five spots a race to accomplish that. I will grant that him crashing out in practice wasn’t great, but I still have faith that he can get a solid run in on Sunday though we’ll need him to not have a great qualifying either so that dropping to the rear doesn’t cause as much of an issue.

Ty Dillon ($5,700 DK, $3,000 FD)
Dillon is back in the Cup race this weekend and on road courses, he’s been pretty reliable in the last handful with a 20.8 average finish and 6.7 PD mark. The equipment he’s in this week is comparable to what he had in the 13-car. He’s likely to go overlooked as there are other interesting options at this price point but given his ability on left and right turns, he’s worth a budget play in GPPs.

James Davison ($5,200 DK, $2,500 FD)
Welcome back to the playbook Mr. Davison. If this was an oval race he certainly wouldn’t be on the list but his copious amounts of open-wheel experience makes him a solid cheap dive. He’s moved up 8.4 spots a race in the last five Cup road races he’s run for an average finish of 27.0. It’s really the PD we’re after here at the supreme budget end of the spectrum.

CORE PLAYS