The MLB First-Year Player Draft is coming up in about a week and a half and so now is a great time to start breaking down some of the first and second-round names we’re likely to see be taken during the MLB All-Star break. Last year’s draft was a shorter affair, based on rounds, than it usually is due to the pandemic and lack of scouting that could be done but this year it’s back to its regular length of 40 rounds. This is considered one of the deepest drafts in a while and so there are quite a few ways the teams can parse the player pool and spend their draft picks as well as bonus money pool to get the players under contract.
You can see the draft order below courtesy of MLB.com and keep in mind the Astros are still missing their first and second-round picks due to the 2017 sign-stealing penalties.
This won’t be a true mock draft as I’m not picking where the players will wind up, but I will be breaking down some of the more intriguing, and perhaps lesser-known, early-round picks. This will be a two-part series with the second part coming out on 7/7 and then you’ll see some of these players added to my updated top-250 prospects list that will be out on 7/14.
You won’t see Jack Leiter or Jordan Lawlar or Kumar Rocker broken down as they are simply very well known at this point.
Marcelo Mayer, SS Eastlake HS (CA) - While the other Texas prep shortstop got all the pub over the season and into the summer in Jordan Lawlar, Mayer may in fact be the better overall prospect and the one going number one overall. He’s at least above-average in all traits with three being plus in the hit, arm, and field tools. The 18-year-old shortstop hits lefty and has an advanced feel for hitting and the strike zone which allows for the above-average power to show up well in games. On the defensive side of the ball he gets compared to Brandon Crawford in terms of instincts and IQ while offensively he has a Corey Seager profile to his game.
Kahlil Watson, SS Wake Forest HS (NC) - Watson is another lefty-hitting shortstop in the prep ranks, this time out of North Carolina. Despite being listed at 5’9” and 178 pounds, he plays bigger than that and all of his skills have the chance to be plus as he matures. Watson has an aggressive approach at the plate, going for power-over-hit generally but is still patient enough to draw walks and keep strikeouts down but ultimately the approach will need tuning as he works his way through the pro ranks. Defensively, he can profile at several defensive positions as his plus arm strength lets him make all of the necessary throws, and his double-plus speed increases his range as well as making him a base-stealing threat. He could go number one overall.
Henry Davis, C Louisville - Davis is easily the top-ranked catcher in the class, and for good reason. He has a slightly better offensive profile than Will Smith, now of the Dodgers and formerly of Louisville, with more present power right now and an above-average hit tool that will let him hit for a high average and 20-plus homers a year. Davis’ calling card is his double-plus arm strength and accuracy that threw out 34-percent of would-be base stealers in his first two college seasons. He’ll need to improve the receiving aspect when he becomes a pro but the traits are there for him to be an impact fantasy bat at the catcher spot.
Jackson Jobe, RHP Heritage Hall HS (OK) - It’s not often that we see a high school arm this advanced and that’s what makes Jobe standout, well that and his pure stuff. He already possesses three plus-pitches of the four he throws with the fourth being above-average. The 70-grade slider is the best in the class and is an elite pitch at any level. The fastball sits in the low-to-mid-90s while touching 96 and having great riding life late into starts. The changeup is solidly plus, but flashes 70-grade at times, and is devastating to both handednesses of hitter. The curveball is the fourth-best pitch in the arsenal but is still above-average and works in the upper-70s with nice break to it. He is right there with Leiter and Rocker as the best arms in the class and has clear frontline starter upside.
Brady House, SS Winder-Barrow HS (GA) - Already 6’4” and 215 pounds as a high school senior, he looks the part of a pro and has the traits and skills to back that up too. Some of the best raw power in the draft class resides in the righty-stroke of House while possessing an at least average hit tool. He currently plays shortstop and can handle that well with a plus arm and solid actions and footwork but is likely to move to third base once drafted and into a team’s system. If we’re looking for comps for House, he’s a more athletic Nolan Gorman who was a first-rounder in 2018 and also possessed plus raw power.
Ty Madden, RHP Texas - Madden was part of a great high school rotation that featured JJ Goss and Matt Thompson who both went in the top-two rounds of the 2019 first-year player draft and now Madden, who went to Texas rather than the pros, stands to be another first-round pick. The 6’3”, 215-pound righty has a four-pitch mix that has at least two, if not three, plus pitches in it. The sinking fastball and biting slider are his main pitches but he also has a changeup that flashes plus and an average mid-70s curveball that offers a different look. Madden has the makings of a frontline starter with a repeatable delivery and a sturdy frame that should allow him to throw plenty of strikes and eat up innings.
Colton Cowser, OF Sam Houston State - A former teammate of Madden, Goss, and Thompson, Cowser went on to star at Sam Houston State in center field in the mold of a prototypical leadoff hitter. The run and hit tools are both plus for Cowser with the power and arm being average at best. If he gets some more loft to his swing, he’ll be a 20-homer a year bat with plus speed in the mold of Brandon Nimmo. He has a bit defensively left to prove to stay in center full-time but he could make for a very speedy left fielder as well.
Sal Frelick, OF Boston College - The smallish outfielder from BC, Frelick has double-plus speed and plus bat-to-ball skills that make him a standout at any height. His approach at the plate in college generated more walks than strikeouts his first two years. While the 5’9” 175-pound lefty-hitting outfielder is not going to have a lot of power, he will have gap-to-gap pop and then utilize his speed to be a major threat on the basepaths.
Harry Ford, C North Cobb HS (GA) - Clubs are very excited about the potential that Ford has as a Georgia prep catcher. There have been four first-round catchers from the state of Georgia in the last seven drafts with Tyler Stephenson and Joey Bart the headliners and there’s a chance that Ford has better skills than all of them at this point. He’s at least an average hitter, overall not just for a catcher, and has plus-speed with above-average power. He also has enough athleticism to play several other positions aside from behind the dish with many comping the ability to that of Craig Biggio. He could be the first catcher taken in the draft simply for the raw skills and versatility.
Sam Bachman, RHP Miami (OH) - Bachman might be this year’s Max Meyer in that his stuff is excellent with a 70-grade fastball and 65-grade slider and an above-average changeup, but there are control issues and he may be better suited for the bullpen. The 6’1” righty has a short arm delivery coming from a three-quarters arm slot that has led to control issues including walking 4.1 batters per nine in his early college career. If he can get the control in order, he has all the stuff he needs to be a number two starter. Depending on who drafts him, he may be fast-tracked as an elite bullpen arm.
Jordan Wicks, LHP Kansas State - It’s not often that I, as a K-State alum, get to write about a baseball prospect from his alma mater, but I will relish this opportunity now. The southpaw is the likely top lefty in the draft class and also possesses the best changeup in the draft as well at a 65-grade pitch. Wicks backs that pitch up with a low-90s fastball with good riding life and a low-80s slider that morphs into a curveball occasionally. He works efficiently and without much effort in the delivery while pounding the strike zone and makes him a potential number two starter if not number three that’s drawn comps to Reid Detmers.
Matt McLain, SS UCLA - McLain is a guy who has definitely benefited from heading to college and getting time to work on defense at UCLA. The 5’11” and 180-pound infielder has a plus hit and speed duo that will play anywhere and at least average pop. While it’s still up in the air if he’ll stick at shortstop, which I think he likely moves to second, he has the tools to be a top-of-the-order hitter in the mold of a Dustin Pedroia or Jose Altuve with less pop.
Andrew Painter, RHP Calvary Christian HS (FL) - Painter is one of my favorite pitchers in this class. Not only does he have the size and stuff to be a frontline caliber starter coming out of the prep level but he also has the feel for pitching of a pitcher much more mature. The low-to-mid-90s fastball is a plus pitch with both his two- and four-seam variety while he also offers two distinct breaking pitches and a changeup that flashed plus during the showcase circuit. He knows how to mix up the pitches and keep hitters off-balance and as he fills out he’ll add velocity and movement. There is top-10 overall potential here and his development will be one to watch.