NASCAR DFS: Explore The Pocono Mountains 350 Playbook

If you need a full breakdown of what the track is like or what we can expect for Sunday’s race, you can check out the Track Breakdown and the Podcast as well as the top of the Playbook from yesterday’s race.

I will say with the top-20 from Saturday’s finish order being inverted for Sunday’s start order, and the back half of the field starting where they finished, it created a situation last year in which only two drivers that started in the top-10 finished there on Sunday. If we approach this race in which PD will be a bulk of the scoring with the thought that the laps led will likely be split similarly to what they were on Saturday, they won’t be a major factor in the scoring even with the race being 10 laps longer for Sunday.

There will also be a lot more chalk plays for Sunday because of where drivers are starting based on Saturday’s finishes but there should still be enough differentiators in the playbook to give your lineup a different look. Projections and Rankings have already been updated and the following charts are also based on including Saturday’s results in the info.

Average Points By Starting Spot

These charts include the last five races at Pocono (including Saturday’s) and show the average points on each site based strictly on starting spot regardless of the drivers starting in those spots.

Stats Over Last Five Races

This table is usually in the Track Breakdown but since there is only one of those this weekend, I’ve included the updated one here. Each row shows the number of drivers to achieve that feat in that race.

Playbook

Kyle Larson ($12,800 DK, $14,500 FD, P12)
Larson was in position to win his fifth-straight race on Saturday when his tire blew in the “short chute” and he hit the wall in Turn 3. He wound up finishing P9 which puts him starting P12 but with an asterisk because he’s going to a backup car and will drop to the rear on the pace laps but be scored starting from P12. That doesn’t necessarily hurt his stock that badly but it does take away his shot of leading a bunch of laps which we need at his salaries.

Kyle Busch ($11,000 DK, $13,000 FD, P19)
Busch wound up leading the most laps in Saturday’s event but still finished P2 overall. He had nothing bad to say about his car this race which is frankly a miracle at this point and he’s feeling pretty confident about the ride heading into Sunday’s race. Busch will be a popular play among the top-priced drivers because of how he ran on Saturday, the fact that he’s won thrice here in the last 11 races, and he’s got PD on his side. 

Martin Truex Jr ($10,800 DK, $12,500 FD, P3)
Look if Truex doesn’t compete with this starting spot, he’s more lost than we thought he was. He had a decent run on Saturday but not great and it’s mainly due to this package in which they’ve not done well in for more than a year now. However, we’ve got a guy who is capable of leading laps still starting in a spot where he can do just that as Buescher and McDowell shouldn’t be out front very long and if he leads some laps and still finishes in the top-five, he can hit value. That’s certainly a risk at this point though and so he’s best suited for GPPs and then hope he leads enough to offset the likely drop in position.

Denny Hamlin ($10,500 DK, $13,500 FD, P17)
Hamlin was closing in on Larson and Kyle Busch before the last caution came out and the restart hurt him. In fact, that was basically the only thing off on his car all of Saturday as he consistently had one of the best cars on the track all day. In the post-race interview, he stated that the car didn’t need but some very slight tweaking to be very very good and he was confident they’d be a factor on Sunday. Who am I to doubt a six-time winner at the track and a guy who’s still leading the Driver Points race despite not winning yet this year. Hamlin is fine for both formats.

Chase Elliott ($10,200 DK, $11,000 FD, P9)
Elliott was the chalk play on Saturday as he was starting P29 and the race didn’t start well for him as he got damage at the drop of the green flag and then just couldn’t move up quite as much as most expected. However, the car was making good laps late in the race and he'll be starting P9 on Sunday without needing a backup car which puts him in a great position to threaten for the win on Sunday. Elliott is likely to be the top played, high-priced driver aside from perhaps Hamlin.

Kevin Harvick ($10,000 DK, $12,000 FD, P13)
It was another race management day for Harvick on Saturday as his car was solid but just not as quick as it needed to be to really be a threat. That’s been the story with Harvick all year though and he keeps being a threat to hit value almost every week. He won here last year and moved up well in the second race as well and starting in this spot should be a threat for a top-five finish which should hit value yet again.

Joey Logano ($9,700 DK, $10,000 FD, P14)
Logano has been hit and miss at Pocono and in the 550-horsepower package this year but on Saturday he stayed in the top-10 all day, except for a pit sequence, and posted an average running position of 7.8. That indicates that he should be able to move up well here on Sunday with a starting spot of P14 and that presents nice value while being under $10K again on DK. Because he hasn’t been as good in the lower-horsepower package he might be a bit overlooked again as he’s starting in a bit of sandwich spot.

Ryan Blaney ($9,200 DK, $10,300 FD, P16)
Blaney made quick work of moving forward on Saturday after starting P27 as he was up to P5 halfway through the race and finished P5 while posting a 10.1 average running position. Because of the invert, he’ll roll off P16 on Sunday at a track that he’s done well at his whole career including getting his first Cup win while driving for the Wood Brothers. Moving up shouldn’t be that hard for him and now that he’s a full $1K less on DK than he was on Saturday, he’ll need to get to P7 to hit value without any laps led or fastest laps which is fully doable. Blaney is fine for both formats.

William Byron ($9,000 DK, $11,500 FD, P18)
Byron seemed like a factor most of the day on Saturday until he faded a tad late while still finishing in the top-three. He’s been great at Pocono throughout his career and the Hendrick Chevys are a threat every week at this point no matter where they start. Byron shouldn’t have much trouble moving up from the P18 starting spot. There’s not much reason to avoid Byron as he’s also been proficient at locking down top-10s week after week.

Alex Bowman ($8,700 DK, $9,500 FD, P20)
Bowman won Saturday’s event sort of by a fluke as Larson blew a tire with a third of a lap to go, but he did hold off his teammate for 13 laps when he clearly wasn’t the faster car. It was his first win here but the 18th overall for Hendrick at Pocono. Because of the win, he’ll roll off 20th on Sunday which by default also gives him the most PD upside of any of the top-20 from Saturday. While he did look good on Saturday, it was a late-arriving speed for the 48-car which could mean that some others in this range might garner more attention.

Kurt Busch ($8,500 DK, $8,500 FD, P15)
He didn’t make the playbook for Saturday when he started P8 simply because his record here hadn’t been overly impressive and he himself hadn’t been that great of late either on the track but the on-track showing on Saturday warrants his inclusion for Sunday’s race. He ran out front for a good portion of the race and the 1-car looked to have the right setup from the drop of the green flag and so there’s no reason to think they won’t have the right setup again on Sunday, and this time he has more PD upside.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100 DK, $8,200 FD, P32)
Look there’s no way around the fact that they were self-inflicted issues on Saturday for DiBenedetto that landed him in the back quarter of the field for Sunday. That also means that he should have plenty of upside for the longer race as his average finish in the last five races here is 17.0 or 15 spots better than where he’s starting. Sitting squarely in the mid-tier on both sites, he’ll be a popular play as well as balanced builds will be a strong format for Sunday.

Chase Briscoe ($7,900 DK, $5,000 FD, P24)
This is one of those differentiators I mentioned in the intro that might go a bit overlooked by others because he started P28 and finished P24 on Saturday which doesn’t jump out. He’s also now a grand more on DK, though the FD price is still really good, and needs 39.5 points to hit 5x on DK. That means a P14 finish for Briscoe. Here’s the thing about Briscoe though is that he had a 19.7 average run position on Saturday, a full four spots better than where he finished. So if he doesn’t fade late on the last restart, he finishes in the top-20. One more item of note, he spent more than a quarter of the laps inside the top-15 on Saturday which shows promise for Sunday.

Ross Chastain ($7,700 DK, $6,000 FD, P33)
Chastain had an eventful first day at Pocono as his car was damaged and he never was able to recover from that, ultimately finishing P33. That’s where he’ll be counted as starting Sunday but he’ll have to drop to the rear because of using the backup car, however at this starting spot there’s no reason for concern. He will be a chalky play given the speed he showed early in the race and what he’s shown in the last three races overall too and with the backup cars being just as good as the primary cars at this point, he likely doesn’t lose much with that move either.

Daniel Suarez ($7,100 DK, $5,800 FD, P8)
Suarez continues to impress in the 99-car both on the track and for DFS purposes as he’s been in the optimal lineup about half the races this year. He basically finished where he started on Saturday and due to the invert, he’ll roll off in the top-10. It’s clear that there’s good speed in the Trackhouse Chevy and perhaps starting in the top-10 could have him finishing there though it’s a longer shot than him starting outside of it and finishing inside the top-10. He’s only in play in GPPs.

Tyler Reddick ($6,900 DK, $8,700 FD, P10)
Reddick wasn’t on my radar for the first race but pleasantly surprised by finishing P11 and having an average run position of 12.5. Starting P10 there isn’t a ton of upside here but if Reddick can once more have a good day and finish around where he starts he has a decent shot to hit 5x value on DK. The price on FD isn’t great and has me off of him on FD. If you’re looking for another cheaper driver starting in the top-10, how about Aric Almirola ($6,400 DK, $6,500 FD, P5) who ranks fifth in average finish here in the last five races and knows what he needs in the car to compete here. It was clear he didn’t have it on Saturday but they’re allowed to make changes to the car’s setup for Sunday and so expect Almirola’s 10-car team to have it more dialed in with a shot to stick in the top-10.

Cole Custer ($6,800 DK, $5,500 FD, P38)
He’s starting in the back due to crashing out hard on Saturday, though it wasn’t his fault as Brad Keselowski took him out, and he’ll be in a back up car. With nowhere to go but forward, he’ll be played everywhere by everyone especially at this price. There’s not much else to add other than he has finished inside the top-20 twice in the three races he’s run here.

Corey Lajoie ($5,900 DK, $4,500 FD, P36)
Lajoie started P23 and finished P36 because of an incident and the car not running well at all. However, because he’s now starting in the back, and using the back up car, he’s a very cheap PD option that some may disregard simply because Lajoie hasn’t popped that often on the DFS scene. There’s still a shot that things don’t work out for him on Sunday but he’s worth a cheap dive in GPPs.

Erik Jones ($5,700 DK, $6,500 FD, P22)
Jones didn’t move up like we thought he would on Saturday but he did move up a bit. We should see input for adjustments on the 43-car from Jones given that he has four top-five finishes here and he now knows what the car could use to make it better for Sunday. Here’s the thing though he only needs to move up four spots to hit value and with his history here, that should be doable given that he was in 19th with 13 laps to go on Saturday.

Ryan Newman ($5,500 DK, $5,300 FD, P37)
Newman had a solo car wreck early in the day and ruined his Saturday run while also requiring the switch to the backup car for Sunday. Starting this far back, he’s clearly in a PD spot as he already was in a PD spot when he started P19 on Saturday and now added nearly 20 spots of potential to his upside for Sunday. Expect to see him as a big part of cash builds and GPP builds as the price also allows for one more pricey driver in your lineup as well.