Updates are in RED

The NASCAR Cup Series comes to Nashville for the very first time this weekend and it’s the first time in 10 years that any NASCAR series is racing at the 1.33-mile, concrete, D-shaped oval in central Tennessee. With it being the first race here, it can be tricky to figure out who will be good but luckily there is one practice session on Saturday and on-track qualifying on Sunday as well, not to mention the comparable tracks to this that have been raced on recently.

Dover has been mentioned a lot this week by some others on Twitter and other sites, and while that’s a solid comp because of the racing surface being concrete and the same right-side tires being on the cars this week at Nashville as were on them a few weeks ago at Dover, there are some others that are equally as good of comps. Darlington, Kansas, Kentucky, Las Vegas, and even Phoenix can work as comparable races as well for aero package, banking, and size of track. Those are the tracks used in the Track Breakdown data this week (which you should read) and ones I feel that will carry over well to Nashville.

Checking out the Track Breakdown as well as the Rankings and listening to the Podcast should give you a good idea to go with the Playbook what I’m thinking for this race as well as hopping in the Discord chat and asking questions in the NASCAR channel,

Average Points By Starting Spot

Typically these charts refer to the specific track for the week but this time they will show the average scoring by starting spot for the similar tracks that have been raced at this year. Again it’s more of a strategy tool than a hard-and-fast rule, especially this week.

Lastly, for fun here was the Invocation from 10 years ago and one of the greatest Invocations ever.

Playbook

Kyle Larson
Do we need to explain why we’re playing Larson? He’s won the last three overall Cup races and finished P2 in the three before that. He then came out and led the only practice session this week in 10-lap average. It doesn’t matter where he qualifies at this point as the 5-car will have a chance to win every week now.

Chase Elliott
Elliott has continued to be quite good in this package all year and in the last five similar races, he has five top-15s and two top-fives. He’s also posted eight top-fives in his 12 Dover races indicating he knows how to handle the concrete surface. The trick for Elliott at this price point has been will he lead laps to hit value or will he start so far back that the PD gets him there. It’s likely the former rather than the latter for hitting value this week though.

Martin Truex Jr
Truex has been a FAR better driver in this 750-horsepower package over the last year and a half with all of his wins since September of 2019 coming in this setup. He’s already posted three in it this year with Phoenix, Martinsville, and Darlington being in his column with Phoenix and Darlington decent comparables to Nashville. He did miss on the setup in practice, or appeared to, running P29 in single-lap speed but P15 (out of 20) in 10-lap average, so we’ll see where he qualifies before deciding how we’re playing him. UPDATE: He’s starting almost dead last and is a lock to play in all formats and will be heavy chalk.

Denny Hamlin
Hamlin has been very quick in this package this year with four top-fives and a 5.2 average finish with the best average Driver Rating as well. He doesn’t have a trip to victory lane yet this year but he’s clearly been on the doorstep quite a few times and ran in the top-eight in single-lap practice speeds and mid-pack in 10-lap average. The 11-car team is one of the best at in-race adjustments so he’s a safe play no matter where he’s starting.

Kyle Busch
Busch raced in and won the Xfinity race on Saturday...I know, I know tell me if you’ve heard that before. It is a good sign for him though as it works as a pseudo practice session for him in addition to the Cup practice he also got on Saturday. In that session, while the single-lap speed wasn’t great, the 10-lap average was inside the top-10. He’s also posted three top-fives including a win at similar races this year with the win coming at Kansas. Busch is looking like the KB18 of old more and more and the price is still deflated.

William Byron
Byron has somehow managed to stay under the radar this year despite a win and 12 top-10s in his last 14 races and oh yeah...driving for Hendrick. He’s been a driver in the thick of things all season and especially at similar races with five top-10s and a 7.2 average finish while being one of only four drivers to average 20+ laps led and fastest laps per race in that span. Byron led the opening practice in single-lap speed (by a ways) and P10 in 10-lap average. If he goes with a more long-run set up in the car for qualifying, we should also have faith in him moving up as he leads the field in quality passes per race in similar races this year (31.2). UPDATE: He is dropping to the rear on the pace laps for unapproved adjustments and so that minimize his upside. We're keeping him in play for GPPs in case he gets back to the top-five but it seems like a slim chance and he likely settles for a top-10.

Brad Keselowski
Keselowski, ever the unpredictable one, makes the playbook simply for that reason. While he’s been solid in races like Nashville this year and he’s always one that seems to be able to get more out of the car than he should, the real reason he’s here is simply that we never know what he’s going to do strategy or what break he’s going to get, but it’ll almost always work in his favor. When it comes to NASCAR DFS, we need luck and Keselowski’s got it to go along with having won here in the, then, Nationwide Series.

Alex Bowman
Bowman has two wins in this package this year including on the last concrete track that was raced on at Dover. He might be the most inconsistent Hendrick driver at these tracks though this year as the average finish is 15.2, or worst of the four Hendrick drivers. Let’s not let that last stat dissuade you from playing him though as he’s still really good and ran top-10 at practice. He’s also the HMS driver that’s been able to move up through the field the best with the best PD of the bunch.

Kevin Harvick
Harvick has been so hard to pin down this year for when he’ll be fast and when he’ll miss completely. This could be another one of those weeks but we’ll take the shot anyway. He ran top-three in 10-lap average at practice but was off in single-lap speed. He’s posted 0 top-fives in the 750-horsepower package but does have one, runner-up to Kyle Busch, at Kansas. If the Grave Digger paint scheme changes his mojo, then he could be a sneaky play but if not, it could be another so-so week for Harvick and the 4-car team.

Joey Logano
There have been 10 races run at this horsepower in 2021 and Logano has finished top-five seven times. He’s also moved up well in those races as well as posting the fifth-best Green Flag speed. Logano did snag a win here previously in the lower divisions as well. Not including the All-Star race, this is the second-cheapest price for Logano on DK over the last 10 races which just adds to his upside.

Ryan Blaney
Blaney makes it three Team Penske drivers in this week’s playbook and while Blaney has arguably been better in the 550-horsepower package this year, note the Atlanta win, he showed great speed in practice on Saturday and has posted three top-10s in five race like Nashville. More so than the other Penske teammates, we’ll need to see what he’s got in qualifying before deciding what exposure we’re getting but he does have the second-best top-15 rate in those five races.

Tyler Reddick
Reddick could be electric here, especially with the top groove coming in on the track and in this package. Reddick has either had it or not in similar races with three top-20s but just one top-10. The 8-car ran top-five in single-lap and 10-lap average in Saturday’s practice session. If he starts in the top-10 he could go overlooked but should have the ability to stay in the top-10, though would have limited upside from a PD perspective. If he starts P15 or worse, he’s a cash-game worthy play in the mid-tier.

Kurt Busch
This spot was originally taken by Christopher Bell in the first playbook, but now with Busch qualifying P30 on Sunday and running P6 in single-lap speeds on Saturday, and ranking 13th in Green Flag Speed in similar races, Busch has become the better play in this price range. He will likely be chalky in cash as he pairs very well with MTJ  for major PD upside but he's also quite playable in GPP builds too. 

Austin Dillon
Look if it was this time last year, Dillon likely wouldn’t have made the playbook because of his previous lack of solid showings at intermediate tracks, however, things are far different now. He’s been a consistently quick car at this distance and in this package for the last year or so. The speed wasn’t quite there in practice, but he does have a history of success here with a win in the Truck Series as well as three top-15s in the last five similar races to lean on. He’s also been able to finish around where he starts the last several races as well, which could be all he needs to do based on starting spot.

Matt DiBenedetto
DiBenedetto, the winner of the fan vote last weekend, comes in with three top-15s in the last five races like Nashville and a 12.4 average finish. He’s also finished inside the top-20 in all of those races. The 21-car was running some of the fastest laps in practice overall and the 13th-best 10-lap average. For him, starting spot will be everything as anything inside the top-10 gets a tad risky but anything outside the top-10 makes him playable.

Aric Almirola
Look I’ll admit he wasn’t really on the radar until qualifying when he ran the fastest lap in the field. Him starting on the pole in this package has been decent for his fantasy value as he’s been able to usually stay up near the top-10 but even with that he’s only a GPP play since he can only go backward. Even as rough as this year has been, he’s still run the 12th-best Green Flag speed in this package.

Ross Chastain
Chastain has been putting on a show in this package this year and did once more on Saturday when he was P7 in single-lap speed and P2 in 10-lap average. He’s also put up three top-15s in the last five comparable races to this weekend and has moved up a few spots per race to achieve that. Starting outside the top-15 is a good place to pounce on Chastain though the 10-lap average speed will likely bump up the number of people playing him.

Chris Buescher
Buescher has two top-10s in comparable races with a 14.8 average finish and has generally been good at intermediate tracks this year in general. He’s also got some mojo coming in having moved up five spots a race in the last five races overall this year. If the long-run speed translates to the race, he ran P8 in practice, it could be another good race for Buescher who keeps going under the radar.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr
Stenhouse is of course always a risk given the chance of wrecking being higher with him. However, the 47-car looked fast in practice at short and long-run speeds. Four top-20s in the last five races at similar tracks shows he’s keeping the car on the track more frequently of late. He does remain a GPP-only play but there is upside here depending on starting spot.

Erik Jones
Jones has been quite good in this package this year with four top-20s, including a top-10, and moving up nearly seven spots a race as well. He didn’t run a long run in practice on Saturday but his single-lap speeds of P14 match up well with the 16th-ranked Green Flag speed he’s posted in this package this year in the 43-car. Jones continues to be overlooked because of the thoughts on his equipment but as long as he keeps proving those suppositions wrong we’ll keep playing him in DFS. UPDATE: He’s only a GPP play as he’ll drop to the rear on the pace laps after qualifying P9 and so he’ll need to get back to P9 to get positive PD which might be tough.

Ryan Newman
Just like every week with Newman, it’s all dependent on the qualifying spot for his PD upside. If he’s starting too far forward he tends to drop back but starting outside the top-20 tends to be the magic spot for him to move up through the field instead. Newman ran P9 for single-lap speeds in practice and has three top-20s in the last five closest races including a top-10. At Darlington, he started P20 and finished P10 and that’s about what we’re hoping for this week as well.

Chase Briscoe
Briscoe is a rare occurrence in the playbook these days and that’s for good reason as he’s been mostly a disaster in his rookie campaign but there are a couple of things in his favor this week. He ran very well at Darlington starting P22 and finishing P11 for 43 DK points and he’s also run two tire tests here this year as well. He ran P11 in short-run speeds in Saturday’s practice and has two top-20s in the last five similar races while moving up 4.2 spots a race to get there. While we’re going this far down the price list, and this risky, let’s toss JJ Yeley into the mix as a supreme dart throw. He’s moved up nearly five spots a race in the last six comparable races and ran the Truck and Xfinity series races as well giving him more track time than anyone else.

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-