Welcome to the All-Star race weekend for the Cup series where NASCAR likes to try a whole bunch of different things in terms of aero package or set-ups on the cars or even formats of the race itself. This year they’re combining a whole lot of different changes into one race that should make things pretty interesting to watch but very tricky for DFS purposes.

There are 100 laps in the exhibition race on Sunday and those laps will be broken down into six stages with the first four being 15 laps a piece, the fifth being 30 laps, and the last one being a ten-lap sprint for the $1,000,000 check to the winner. If only it was that simple. The second and fourth stages will see the field invert randomly while the third stage sees the full field invert and then the fifth stage is set by average finish from the first four stages. This is what’s going to make it so tricky for DFS plays as drivers will be shifting front-to-back and back-to-front all night. Oh yeah, and they’re going to have the same engine package they do on plate tracks as well which should make for closer pack-type racing than we normally see on a 1.5-mile track.

The starting spots were set by random draw on Tuesday night for the 17 drivers that have already qualified for the field and then the All-Star Open, the drivers not yet in the All-Star Race, the field was set by random draw too. That race is a 50-lap event before the All-Star Race and it’ll allow a max of four additional drivers to be added to the main event field. DraftKings already have several of those Open drivers with salaries and FanDuel typically has added them to the field once they’ve made the main race but they may not do that this year.

For this week we’re avoiding cash games completely and playing it light simply because of the randomness in play during the race with where the drivers will wind up at different points of the race and the package that are on the cars this week as well. Everyone is also in play as well though clearly, the playbook offers the most appealing options.

Playbook

Kyle Larson P1 - Larson has been on an amazing streak over the last five races having finished P2 or better in all of them. He’s also won an All-Star race previously with Chip Ganassi. Starting the pole could mean he leads some early laps but if he shifts backward, the value drops quickly for him.

Denny Hamlin P16 - Hamlin continues to be good at this distance and in this plate racing package over the last 10 races combined. Starting in the back he should be able to move up some quickly and get PD points and then it’s all about not getting shifted too much when the field inverts. He’s yet to win an All-Star race but clearly has the skill and equipment to end that drought.

Ryan Blaney P17 - Blaney, if you heard my hit on Alarm After Hours on Thursday night, was my pick to win the All-Star race. That still holds true. He has the fourth-best average finish in the last 10 races at similar tracks and plate tracks and has posted the fourth-best Green Flag speed in that same span too. Starting P17 the upside is there, like it is for Hamlin, for PD and if he’s up front late in the race he could very well be a threat late.

Alex Bowman P15 - Bowman is in a Hendrick Chevy. That’s really all that needs to be said at this point based on the last four weeks for that organization and how well they typically do at intermediates, as well as All-Star races. Bowman has four straight top-10 finishes and two wins this year.

Kevin Harvick P12 - Harvick has typically run Texas well in normal races and in the last 10 races at similar tracks and plate races Harvick has also done well too. This year hasn’t been great for Harvick and SHR but he’s still posted solid finishes most weeks and that’s all we’re really looking for this week as no one is likely to dominate the race. Let’s also not discount that he’s also the active Cup leader in All-Star Race wins having won two with the last one in 2018.

Chase Elliott P6 - Elliott won the race last year at Bristol and in his number-9 Hendrick Chevy has been quite speedy a lot this year. He’s finished P2 three times and has been a threat for a top-five most weeks. Let’s also not forget that he’s gotten better at the plate package style of racing too. He’ll also have a leg up as he drove the Truck race on Saturday and should know what the track is handling like as well.

Kyle Busch P2 - Busch was very close to running down Elliott for the win in last year’s race and now this year has been quick enough the last few weeks to hang with the Hendrick Chevys too. Busch is the all-time leader in laps led at All-Star races and starting P2 might come in handy to adding to that total. Busch, similar Elliott, ran the Xfinity race on Saturday and should have a feeling for what the track is doing in terms of grooves, though this race is later in the day.

Joey Logano P7 - Logano and his teammate Brad Keselowski, were in the booth for both races on Saturday but they’re really here because of how they typically race in the plate packages even with their late blocks. Logano has also been showing arguably the best speed of the Penske cars the last few weeks as well. Look for Logano and Blaney to team up as they make a move to the front and if they’re there for Stage 5 things could get interesting.

Tyler Reddick (Open Driver) - Reddick isn’t in the All-Star race yet but he is on the pole for the Open and if he can win a stage, or the race, he’ll be in the main event. Reddick finished P2 at Texas last Summer and the RCR cars have been good at intermediate tracks and tire wear tracks and Texas fits both of those for sure. If he makes the race, he could be an interesting play for sure.

Matt DiBenedetto (Open Driver) - DiBenedetto won the Open last year to make the All-Star race and he finds himself in that position again this year. Though he does have another way in too, the Fan Vote, which he could be a big vote-getter in. We’ve seen Matty D run up front in pack races and we’ve seen him get better at 1.5-mile tracks too to the point where he’s had a couple of top-10s at them this year. Again he needs to make the field first but could make noise if he does.

Austin Dillon P5 - Dillon won here last year in the Summer and hence why he’s in the field this week. The RCR cars have been consistently quick at 1.5-mile tracks and he’s posted a few top-10s in the last several intermediate races. Pair that with his past history of being solid at pack racing and Dillon makes a sneaky good pick for Sunday evening as well.

Ross Chastain (Open Driver) - Chastain, the Watermelon farming race car driver, is certainly a crowd favorite and that could be one of his ways into the main race, assuming he doesn’t win a stage in the Open or the whole 50-lap event. The 42-car has been surprisingly fast the last few weeks and we’ve also seen him do well at plate race engine races. The PD would be there too as he’d be slotted in at the back of the field.