Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals

Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA) vs Adam Wainwright (14-10, 4.19 ERA)

Busch Stadium

Braves -125, o/u 8.0

 

Series Tied 1-1

The Cardinals and Braves have a pivotal Game 3 on tap in St. Louis today as both teams look to take the series advantage and move within one win of advancing. The Cardinals out-slugged the Braves in Game 1 en route to a 7-6 win. Folty out-dueled Flaherty in Game 2 en route to a 3-0 Braves win. Today’s matchup is interesting as we have veteran vs. rookie.

Pitching

Braves

The Braves will send Soroka to the mound for his first playoff appearance. He had a great rookie year, pitching to a 2.68 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in what will likely result in a second place finish in the NL ROY voting. It’s always tough to predict how a guy will handle the postseason atmosphere, as some guys do it brilliantly (Strasburg for example) while others (Kershaw for example) really struggle. We just witnessed Dobnak crumble under the pressure yesterday for the Twins. He was strong against righties this year, holding them to a .203/.256/.281 slash, but lefties hit .282 against him and accounted for nine of the 14 dingers that he gave up. The good news for Soroka is that the Cardinals are pretty righty heavy in their lineup. Soroka faced St. Louis twice this year and only gave up one run across 13.0 innings of work.

Cardinals

The Cardinals will turn to Wainwright today as they look to bounce back from defeat in Game 2. Waino has pitched 89.0 innings in his playoff career and has a 3.03 ERA in that span, so you know he’s comfortable with this setting. Waino has been OK against righties, but lefties have given him some issues, slashing .288/.380/.503 with 14 of the 22 home runs he gave up. He faced the Braves one time this year and it did not go well, giving up five runs across 4.0 innings of work. That was on the road though, and that has been a common theme for Waino this year, as he pitched to a 6.22 ERA on the road while pitching to a strong 2.56 ERA at home. Expect a better performance this time around.

Hitting

Braves

If wanting to attack Waino with left-handed bats, you should turn your attention to Freeman, Albies, and Markakis. Albies was solid against righties, but he’s much stronger against lefties and he would be my least favorite option of the three. Freeman torched righties, slashing .310/.416/.589 against them with 30 of his 38 home runs. Markakis hit .298 against righties with all nine of his home runs this year and he is 5-9 against Waino in his career. Options from the right side of the plate would include Acuna and Donaldson, both of which have reverse splits and are stronger against right-handed pitching.

Cardinals

If you are looking to attack Soroka with lefty bats, your options for the Cardinals are not great. Wong, Carpenter, Fowler, and Edman are your options, but not a single one of them hit over .300 OR had a SLG above .500 against right-handed pitching. Your best bet is probably Edman, who hit .298 against righties this year with a .471 SLG, both of which are worse than how he performed against lefties. Ozuna and Bader both had reverse splits this year, making them the best options from the right side of the plate today for the Cardinals.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals

Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-5, 2.32 ERA) vs Aníbal Sánchez (11-8, 3.85 ERA)

Nationals Park

Dodgers -135, o/u 9.0

 

Series Tied 1-1

The Nationals were able to knot up this series with a Game 2 win, but using Scherzer out of the bullpen in that game has forced them into starting Sanchez in Game 3. Although Sanchez pitched well this season, it’s probably a welcoming sight for the Dodgers, who have dealt with Corbin and Strasburg to this point.

Pitching

Dodgers

Ryu will take the ball for the Dodgers today and based on the year he had, the Dodgers are probably feeling pretty good about this one. However, The Nationals ranked fifth in the league in wOBA against left-handed pitching this year and Ryu has a 4.11 ERA across 35.0 career innings in the playoffs. He was solid against righties, holding them to a .245/.280/.370 slash and he was dominant against lefties, giving up a .199/.211/.327 slash line. In his lone start against the Nats this season, Ryu fired 6.2 innings of one-run ball in a Dodgers win.

Nationals

Sanchez will take the ball for the Nationals today and despite the fact that he pitched well this season, he will be a pretty popular guy to stack against today. This Dodgers offense ranked second in the league in wOBA against right-handed pitching this year. Sanchez was solid against both sides of the dish, but lefties did have more success against him, which isn’t good for him, considering the Dodgers lineup is stuffed with lefty bats. Sanchez faced the Dodgers twice this season, giving up four earned runs across 11.1 innings of work.

Hitting

Dodgers

The four big lefties in the Dodgers lineup – Pederson, Muncy, Bellinger, and Seager – all posted a SLG north of .500 against righties this year. Pederson is a very interesting player, considering he hit all 36 of his home runs against righties this year. All four of those guys are very in play today and will all see a lot of love in DFS lineups. Lux is another lefty that is viable today in this matchup. If looking at righties your best options are probably Turner and/or Smith. Turner hit .292 against righties this year and posted a solid SLG of .473. Smith had reverse splits, hitting .274 against righties with a robust .655 SLG.

Nationals

The Nationals have been very good against lefties this season and the two lefties that I expect to see in their lineup today – Soto and Eaton – both hit north of .285 against lefties this season. Joining Soto and Eaton, we have Dozier, Turner, Rendon, and Kendrick all hit above .280 against lefties this season. Kendrick had a ridiculous .376/.421/.615 slash against lefties this season. Rendon had a SLG north of .600 as well. This is one of the more interesting matchups of the day, as Ryu has been so strong this season, but the Nats clearly handle the bat well against lefties.

Summary and Lineups

Today’s slate is very interesting and I think you can go a lot of directions. Yesterday was all about the chalk with the Yankees destroying the Twins (I faded that, whoops) and Cole pitching masterfully against the Rays. We lack that obvious chalk today and the starting pitchers will likely see similar ownership (outside of Sanchez, who will likely be the least owned). The Dodgers offense will likely be the chalkiest, followed by the Braves.

DraftKings FanDuel SuperDraft
Mike Soroka Mike Soroka Adam Wainwright 1.75x
Adam Wainwright Howie Kendrick Mike Soroka 1.8x
Kurt Suzuki / Yan Gomes Max Muncy Gavin Lux 1.95x
Howie Kendrick Justin Turner Freddie Freeman 1.5x
Max Muncy Corey Seager Howie Kendrick 1.45x
Anthony Rendon Cody Bellinger Cody Bellinger 1.15x
Corey Seager Nick Markakis Joc Pederson 1.4x
Ronald Acuna Jr. Matt Joyce Brian Dozier 2x
Cody Bellinger Brian Dozier  
Joc Pederson