When to target speed? This is one of the biggest questions in fantasy baseball each and every year. No one wants to tank the steals category completely, as this can almost assure you of not capturing first place in roto leagues. The problem with a lot of the speed guys, as you may already know, is that they offer very little in just about every other category outside of stolen bases. There are a few ways to go about targeting speed, and they can all work.
A Balanced Approach
This is the most ideal way to go about getting your stolen base category locked up without hurting yourself in the other categories. This does not mean you have to use an early round pick on a Trea Turner or a Dee Gordon, but if you can fill your first couple picks with guys who do it all (including steal bases) you will really be putting your team in a solid spot. In a perfect world you get a top two pick and secure Mike Trout or Jose Altuve. Of course, that probably won’t be the case for most people. Paul Goldschmidt, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Andrew Benintendi, Whit Merrifield, and Alex Bregman are all early picks that will help you across the board while providing you with some solid stolen base numbers. If you are able to land some of these guys or type of players, you can then use later round picks on players that will give you 10-to-20 steals (or more) without killing you in other categories (like a Billy Hamilton will). Tommy Pham, Lorenzo Cain, Javier Baez, Yasiel Puig, and Chris Owings are a few guys worth looking at, if your draft unfolds this way. This style of drafting gives you a very balanced team. You may not have any of the 40+ stolen base guys, but the combined production from your team as a whole will provide enough stolen bases to keep you competitive in the category.
Target Speed Early
This route almost certainty means taking Trea Turner with your first round pick or Dee Gordon with a third or fourth round pick. Last year Turner finished with 46 stolen bases in just 98 games played. As for Gordon, he led the league in the stolen base department, finishing with 60. There are a few problems with Gordon though. The first issue is he does nothing in the homerun department or in the RBI department. Last year he finished with just two home runs and 33 RBI in 653 AB. The second issue is his move to Seattle may jump up his ADP despite the move having very little impact on his value. That being said, a guy who can swipe 60 bags is worth having on your radar. He also was helpful in batting average with a .308 mark and he finished fifth in runs scored in 2017 with 114. Trea Turner on the other hand, won’t hurt you as bad in those categories as Gordon will. Turner finished with just 11 home runs and 45 RBI, but he also did that in 60 fewer games than Gordon did due to injury. Had Turner played 158 games, like Gordon, he would have finished with 18 homers, 72 RBI, and an insane 72 stolen bases at his current pace through his 98 games. If you didn’t understand why Turner was getting taken in the middle of the first round by a lot of people, now you most likely do. Securing one of these two guys early in the draft will make your worries of the stolen base category a thing of the past.
Target Speed Late
This strategy comes into play when your first couple picks are low steal total guys. You may have taken Nolan Arenado in the first round (averages two steals per year) and came back in the second round and selected a starting pitcher. This is a great start to your draft in every category except stolen bases. When taking this route, you will need to be able to find speed later in the draft to be competitive in the category. This style of draft leads to a guy like Billy Hamilton coming into play. Hamilton is a pure one category contributor, but he can nearly solidify the stolen base category for you by himself. Hamilton has stolen between 56 and 59 stolen bases in four straight seasons and can be relied on. Another solid option (who was also pointed out by Brett Talley in Hitting Category Targets and Colby Conway in Power and Speed for Cheap) is Delino DeShields. DeShields can be selected very late in the draft and although he will only help you in stolen bases, there is a solid chance that he will swipe 35+ bases in 2018.
Conclusion
Three ways to target speed have been laid out, but which is the best? That depends on preference and also the flow of how your draft goes. Personally I prefer the balanced approach or the target speed early approach. Owning players who are one category contributors can be frustrating and detrimental to your team, making the targeting speed late approach one I would try to avoid. In today’s MLB the home run ball is easier to come by than stolen bases are, making targeting speed crucial to a successful team. You will be unlikely to find good stolen base category contributors on the waivers, making targeting them in the draft essential. All three approaches can work and you probably already know which approach you use most commonly.
Mock Drafts
Participating in mock drafts can really give you a great feel for which of these approaches you like best. They give you the freedom to try all three multiple times without ever being locked into a roster you are uncomfortable with. After a few mock drafts of each approach you should know which one is your favorite. This will also help you get a good understanding of how to avoid roster killing yourself. By that I mean going to heavy one way or the other; speed is essential to fantasy success and you can’t come up short on stolen bases but you also don’t want to overdo it with a plethora of one category contributors. Find that sweet spot of just the right amount of projected stolen base totals.
We recommend joining Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army here. He organizes a series of mock drafts each week that puts you right in the draft room alongside some of the industry’s finest fantasy baseball minds, so that you not only take part in drafts that are free of auto-drafters but also allow you to pick the brains of those writers and broadcasters you follow throughout the season. You can get onto the schedule distribution list by emailing mockdraftarmy@yahoo.com which will then allow you to pick whichever drafts fit your own schedule.
2017 Stolen Base Leaders
Using the above chart of the 2017 stolen base leaders, it will be easier to see how some of the top stolen base guys can help you (or hurt you) in other categories. This same thought process can be used when targeting any category; doing research into how each player can help or hurt you will always be beneficial to your roster.
A few more key notes from 2017; nine players finished with 30+ home runs, 10+ steals, and a .270+ batting average. They are the following:
- Charlie Blackmon 37-14-.331
- Paul Goldschmidt 36-18-.297
- Justin Upton 35-14-.273
- Brian Dozier 34-16-.271
- Francisco Lindor 33-15-.273
- Mike Trout 33-22-.306
- Anthony Rizzo 32-10-.273
- Travis Shaw 31-10-.273
- Domingo Santana 30-15-.278
Six players finished with 10+ home runs, 25+ steals, and a .270+ batting average:
- Trea Turner 11-46-.284
- Whit Merrifield 19-34-.288
- Jose Altuve 24-32-.346
- Lorenzo Cain 15-26-.300
- Elvis Andrus 20-25-.297
- Tommy Pham 23-25-.306.
Speed is just one of the many crucial parts to building a championship roster. Be sure to check out all that the Draft Guide has to offer and construct a winning team. Good luck in your upcoming drafts and take home the crown this season!