This week we will go with a different approach and focus on kickers (for the first time) and defenses (lightly covered to this point). While these positions might not be glamorous in fantasy, they still are a part of your team, and something you have to pay some attention to. You do not want to shoot yourself in the foot drafting these positions too early, but also want to get some solid value at the positions. The focus will be on five at each position and if they are worthy of the price you have to pay to draft them at their current ADP’s.
Kickers
Stephen Gostkowski (77.5 Yahoo) (97.7 ESPN) (75.09 NFL.com) Is currently being drafted as the number one overall kicker and, outside of Justin Tucker, going well above the rest of the pack on ESPN. Using my colleague Dan Malin’s piece “2017 NFL Draft Guide: Why Kickers” as a reference, picking Gostkowski at the price you have to pay is simply not worth it. Last year he was also picked #1 overall for kickers, but finished tied for eighth in points. The Patriots offense was high-powered as always, but that doesn’t always mean top-notch success for a kicker. To be clear: let someone else waste their mid-round pick on him.
Justin Tucker (78.0 Yahoo) (99.1 ESPN) (73.14 NFL.com) Like Gostkowski, Tucker is going well above the next kicker drafted. Last season Tucker was a high-end kicker own as he finished second in points, and outscored the third highest by nearly 30 points in standard scoring. If you knew for certain that a full repeat performance of points was coming for Tucker, than I would understand the selection. However, that is not how fantasy or sports work, making this selection a reach. Reaching for kickers has proven to be waste time and time again. Guys that you can get at the end of the draft, off waivers, or even just streaming kickers, will prove to be nearly just the same as picking one of these early kickers.
Matt Bryant (105.0 Yahoo) (117.6 ESPN) (81.27 NFL.com) Finished last season as the number one scoring in fantasy, and is currently being draft at the number three spot for this season. His price tag seems pretty fair, while the Falcons offense will not repeat the incredible 2016 season it had, it should once again be one of the top offenses. Bryant has finished as a top-5 fantasy kicker in four of the past seven seasons, giving owners some comfort when drafting him. He is getting up there in age (42) but after drilling 92% of his attempts last season, including 6-8 from 50+ there is little reason to worry.
Dan Bailey (87.6 Yahoo) (124.5 ESPN) (85.55 NFL.com) Is going fourth overall at the position in drafts, an overpay, likely because he plays for the Cowboys. Cowboy’s fans can tend to be a bit crazy. Last season he finished as the tenth scoring kicker. He should be better than that this season, but still not enough to make him worthy of the price tag. Going in the same range of Bryant, it should be an easy choice between the two. He is not worth the reach you will likely have to do in order to get him. Let one of the (likely) Cowboy’s fans in your league take him.
Caleb Sturgis (129.5 Yahoo) (155.0 ESPN) (149.37 NFL.com) Currently being drafted just inside the top-15 at the position and can be drafted at the end of drafts. He finished last season fourth in scoring at the position and just one point behind third, which makes him a nice selection at the price. The Eagles offense should only be better this season with another year of experience for Carson Wentz, and the addition of Alshon Jeffery. This gives little reason to think Sturgis can’t once again be a solid fantasy option. While he may get slightly less FG attempts he should get more XP, and in total it should be enough to once again for him be a top-10 option at the position.
Defense
Denver Broncos (69.1 Yahoo) (83.4 ESPN) (69.27 NFL.com) They are currently being drafted as the number one defense and rightfully so. However, the spot in which you have to take them can be quite rough, and not something I would recommend. If you can get them about a round or two later than their current ADP, go for it. They have been steady and strong over the past few season and finished as the number two scoring defense last season. This is the most talented unit in football, and there is next to no chance they don’t finish inside the top-5 at the position.
Seattle Seahawks (72.0 Yahoo) (84.0 ESPN) (72.16 NFL.com) Are once again one of the top projected defenses for fantasy this upcoming season, coming off the board right after the Broncos. Last season, they finished a disappointing ninth in scoring for defenses, which was largely in part to failing to produce touchdowns. They produced just one fumble return TD and zero interception return TD’s. This should of course be improved upon this season and will get them back to the point scoring totals they have produced in prior seasons. Positive notes from last season include: they gave up just 18.2 points per game, good for third best in the NFL, and they produced 42 sacks, also good for third best in the NFL. The downside, much like the Broncos, is the price tag you have to pay to get this defense.
Minnesota Vikings (87.0 Yahoo) (120.2 ESPN) (79.23 NFL.com) Finished last season as the number one scoring defense, and are currently being drafted outside of the top-5. While there will likely be some regression, as they finished in the top-7 of points against (6th), interception return TD’s (T-7th), fumble return TD’s (T-1st), and sacks (5th), it probably will not be enough to make them not worthy of their current ADP. Overall, as shown in the numbers above, the defense was well-rounded and strong. They should once again be able to compete for a top-5 spot at the position.
Oakland Raiders (140.4 Yahoo) (112.2 ESPN) (83.52 NFL.com) Are probably going a little earlier than they should, after finishing last season outside the top-20 in scoring, but there are some reasons for optimism and progression. Last season they finished dead last in sacks and only had one defensive return TD. That would be hard to repeat. If they can just improve on that a little bit, they could work their way into the top-15 of scoring. The negatives outweigh the reasons for optimism.
Atlanta Falcons (117.7 Yahoo) (124.7 ESPN) (139.31 NFL.com) Make for a questionable draft selection. They are currently going around the tenth selection in drafts, despite last season finishing outside of the top-15 in scoring. They had five defensive touchdowns last season (tied for most in the NFL), and still finished as mentioned outside of the top-15. There is very little reason to believe they will make a leap this season, and actually have reasons to believe they will regress. They gave up 25.4 points per game last season which ranked 27th in the league. Adding Dontari Poe will certainly help, but not enough to push this defense into the upper ranks. This is a defense that should not be drafted as a starting unit outside of leagues that start two defenses.
Houston Texans (75.4 Yahoo) (110.1 ESPN) (84.23 NFL.com) Covered in “NFL ADP Analysis & Draft Strategy: Hate”
Jacksonville Jaguars (142.5 Yahoo) (136.1 ESPN) (145.84 NFL.com) Covered in “NFL ADP Analysis & Draft Strategy: Love”