This week we will look into rookies and where they are being valued in drafts. Each year rookies go earlier in drafts than they probably should, but people get excited with the unknown possibilities of what a rookie could do right from the start. Most rookies won’t be productive in their first season, but that will never stop drafters from trying to hit on the ones who burst onto the scene with big rookie campaigns.

Quarterback

Deshaun Watson (124.2 Yahoo) (122.1 ESPN) (147.82 NFL.com) is currently the only rookie QB seeing any love in drafts. It is believed that Watson, among rookies, will have the best shot at taking over the starting job for his team early in the year. He is still going too early in drafts though, being selected ahead of guys like Blake Bortles, Carson Wentz, and Tyrod Taylor. Watson will likely be a more productive real life player than a big-time fantasy producer in his rookie season. The kid is very talented and had some big seasons for Clemson, but the NFL is a completely different beast. This offense lacks a strong rushing attack, and lacks overall receiving talent. Outside of keeper/dynasty leagues people should pump the breaks on Watson, as based on his ADP they have very high and unrealistic expectations for Watson in his rookie year.

Running Backs

Leonard Fournette (27.6 Yahoo) (26.9 ESPN) (23.17 NFL.com) is the first rookie RB off the board and for good reason. He will be the featured back in the Jaguars offense, and shouldn’t have a problem getting to 250+ touches if he remains healthy. Of course health is a bit of a concern for a guy who suffered many nagging injuries in his time at LSU. Based on his ADP, the fantasy community loves the upside, and is disregarding some of the negative aspects. He makes for a better standard league back than he does a PPR asset, as T.J. Yeldon will outwork him in the passing game.

Christian McCaffrey (38.4 Yahoo) (35.4 ESPN) (34.16 NFL.com) is also seeing early action in drafts, after being an all-purpose machine during his time at Stanford. If you had the chance to checkout “NFL ADP Analysis & Draft Strategy: Hate” you already know I am not a fan of how early this kid is going in drafts. The volume of touches just won’t be there in his rookie year to be worthy of these early selections. He is worth a target in PPR leagues, but in standard leagues this is a player I would avoid.

Joe Mixon (43.8 Yahoo) (60.2 ESPN) (39.72 NFL.com) is someone I would prefer over McCaffrey, despite the cheaper price tag. Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard have failed to produce at the levels that the Bengals had hoped, and Mixon could take over a featured back role in this offense. He has the ability to be an every down back. Hill will likely vulture some goal line TD’s away from Mixon, but in no different fashion than Stewart and Newton will be getting the TD’s in Carolina over McCaffrey.

Dalvin Cook (79.6 Yahoo) (60.4 ESPN) (54.83 NFL.com) looks like somewhat of a trap to me this season. People are falling in love with the talent of Cook, which he has a lot of, and forgetting the situation he is in. The Vikings lack a strong passing game threat, have an awful run blocking offensive line, and also have other RB mouths to feed. Last season the Vikings offensive line ranked 30th in yards before contact per attempt at just 0.98 yards. Free agent signee Latavius Murray will be involved enough in the offense to also take a hit on Cook’s value. The talent is there, unfortunately for the people drafting him, the situation is ugly.

Samaje Perine (106.2 Yahoo) (133.6 ESPN) (119.51 NFL.com) is a rookie RB I can get on board with. His ADP’s are low enough, that value can actually be found here. Currently listed as the backup RB for the Redskins, it is possible that he could be the featured back early in the season. Robert Kelley is far from a special talent and isn’t strong in the passing game, with a catch percentage of just 67% last season. The situation Perine is in gives him enough upside to be worthy of a selection in the range he is being drafted in.

Kareem Hunt (121.6 Yahoo) (119.8 ESPN) (121.55 NFL.com) has talent, but it is a bit confusing to me why people are so confident Spencer Ware will lose the starting job for the Chiefs. Ware has been a productive player the last two seasons for the Chiefs. He has had 286 carries for 1324 yards (4.6 YPC) over the last two seasons and has also been productive in the receiving game. Last year he had 447 yards receiving with two touchdowns. His 13.55 yards per reception was a league-high among RBs. Even if Hunt manages to take the job, it would likely be very deep into the season.

Joe Williams (130.1 Yahoo) (--- ESPN) (147.30 NFL.com) is a talented RB and one that could be in for a big rookie season. Starting RB Carlos Hyde has both talent and injury concerns, making Williams one of the few rookie RB who could be a featured back early into the season. The upside makes Williams worthy of the last round flier that he is currently being drafted as. He shouldn’t be going after Hunt in drafts.

Marlon Mack (131.4 Yahoo) (--- ESPN) (150.82 NFL.com) is currently the third-string RB for the Colts but could ascend up the depth chart quickly this season. Frank Gore has nothing left in the tank, and the team likely won’t want three yards per carry from their starting RB for very long. Robert Turbin (also ahead of Mack on the depth chart) lacks the talent to be a featured back, and is more suited for a backup role. Mack should be the starting RB by mid season, and makes for solid choice late in drafts.

Jamaal Williams (131.2 Yahoo) (--- ESPN) (145.87 NFL.com) is someone I have heard a lot of chatter (from other fantasy minds) about taking over the Packers starting RB gig early in the season. I personally don’t see it; Ty Montgomery was effective as a RB last season and is also great in the passing game. I keep hearing “Montgomery is too small to be a featured RB” my question is have these people actually checked his size? At 6’0 and 216 lbs he is right in line with the average size at the position. Montgomery averaged 5.9 yards per carry last season, and to me there is little reason to believe he loses his job at any point this season.

Wayne Gallman (--- Yahoo) (--- ESPN) (150.94 NFL.com) is a nice sleeper rookie RB. He should work his way into a red zone back early in the season, and could eventually be the early down back for the Giants this season. Paul Perkins is a better pass catcher than Gallman but doesn’t provide much in the ground game to keep Gallman from working his way into the mix. Perkins also failed to rush for a touchdown last season despite 112 carries. Gallman is a touchdown machine with 17 of them in his final season at Clemson. He is currently going undrafted in the majority of leagues.

Wide Receivers

Corey Davis (118.2 Yahoo) (105.2 ESPN) (110.77 NFL.com) was both the number one WR drafted in real life and in fantasy. I love the talent of Davis and think he could make an impact right away, despite a crowded offense. Rishard Matthews went for 65 receptions, 945 yards, and 9 touchdowns last season in the Titans offense, and Davis is a far more talented player. He has great hands and does a great job of high-point catching passes which will help him haul in those 50-50 balls in the red zone for touchdowns. The Titans will have an explosive offense this season, and Davis should be a big part of it.

Mike Williams (122.9 Yahoo) (132.3 ESPN) (145.87 NFL.com) is a big WR and should be a good red zone target for the Chargers this season if he is able to avoid back surgery. The back concerns are scary though, and are enough for me to avoid him in drafts. He will not be a focal point of the Chargers offense, and is not a good selection in PPR leagues. His main value is in standard formats, with some nice touchdown upside.

John Ross (123.1 Yahoo) (134.8 ESPN) (142.99 NFL.com) has the speed and talent to make an immediate impact for the Bengals. He will excel on the deep ball and on crossing routes, but it likely won’t be enough for him to be a big-time fantasy asset in his rookie season. Barring an injury, Ross won’t see enough targets to be a difference maker for your fantasy team. He is more of a stash option that someone you want to plug into the lineup.

Zay Jones (126.7 Yahoo) (138.2 ESPN) (149.52 NFL.com) should probably be the number two WR off the board in fantasy, but is currently going at number four. He will have the ability to make an immediate impact starting alongside Sammy Watkins. He should see heavy targets and be a nice PPR player right away. Given Watkins injury history there is also the strong chance of Jones being the Bills number one option in a handful of games this season. He is in the right situation to succeed.

Cooper Kupp (--- Yahoo) (--- ESPN) (150.72 NFL.com) was the most prolific WR in FCS history, setting all-time record in total receptions (428), receiving yards (6464), and receiving touchdowns (73). He will have the ability to make an immediate impact for the Rams, being among the top-3 on the depth chart for the team. It likely won’t be enough to make an impact on the fantasy world though, as the Rams passing attack is among the worst in the NFL. However, he is worth a late-round flier as he could become a go-to target for Goff, as the Rams current WR’s are a pretty weak group talent wise. Currently he is going undrafted in the majority of leagues.

Tight Ends

O.J. Howard (122.8 Yahoo) (125.1 ESPN) (137.48 NFL.com) is talented, but it is hard to see him making an immediate impact in his rookie year. He will be competing with Cameron Brate for targets at the TE position, and Brate did a solid job for the Bucs last season finishing with 57, 660, and 8. Then you also have WR’s Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, and Adam Humphries who will all see heavy targets. The volume will not be there for Howard in 2017.

Evan Engram (124.0 Yahoo) (131.8 ESPN) (147.67 NFL.com), much like Howard, will struggle to see enough targets to be big-time producer in 2017. Odell Beckham will once again be a target machine, and both Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard will see more action than Engram will. There are only so many passes in an offense, and Engram will be the odd man out.

David Njoku (134.8 Yahoo) (--- ESPN) (148.66 NFL.com), despite being the third rookie TE off the board, actually has the clearest path for immediate production. He should be the third receiving target in the offense behind only Kenny Britt and Corey Coleman. The problem is the Browns offense will likely once again struggle to produce, and have still yet to find their answer at the QB position. He should see enough red zone targets to be a serviceable player at a weak TE position this fantasy season.