MLB DFS Playbook: September 26

Happy Sunday everyone! While we may be in the full swing of things with NFL Week 3 action, there is still money to be won in the baseball world. We have an 8-game slate on tap today with the Tampa Bay Rays (-280) being the biggest favorites on the slate. 

Top Stacks

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Keegan Thompson

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Max Kranick

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Griffin Jax

Core Plays

Pitching

Lucas Giolito, CWS – Giolito is having a nice season with a 3.70 ERA and 192 strikeouts across 167.2 innings pitched. He has faced Cleveland twice this season and he has dominated them, racking up 16 strikeouts across 12.1 innings pitched with a 0.73 ERA. The Indians have the second highest strikeout rate over the last 14 days at a 28.2-percent clip. He should have no problem handling this offense today and shutting them down for a third time. 

Freddy Peralta, MIL – Peralta is having a breakout season with a 2.65 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 190 strikeouts across 139 innings pitched. He has been slightly better at home too with a 2.62 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, compared to a 2.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the road. Today he gets to face the Mets, who have the tenth highest strikeout rate over the past 14 days and they are DEAD LAST in runs scored over that same span. I would not be shocked if he tries to reach the 200 K plateau today. 

Shane Baz, TB – Baz was strong in his first career start, picking up a win and giving up just two runs across five innings pitched with five strikeouts and just two hits against with no walks. Today he faces Miami. The Marlins have the seventh highest strikeout rate over the past 14 days at 25.2-percent and they are 26th in runs scored over that same timeframe. This is the perfect matchup for Baz to keep the good times rolling in his second career outing. 

Jake Woodford, STL – Woodford has been rock solid this season with a 3.92 ERA and 45 strikeouts across 57.1 innings of work. The K-rate could use some work, but he has the perfect matchup today to try and improve on that as the Cubs have THE highest strikeout rate over the last 14 days at a rate of 29.1-percent. The Cardinals are rolling right now, winning 15 straight games, so there is a solid chance at grabbing a win with Woodford today. 

Hitting

Vladimir Guerrero Jr, TOR 1B – Vladdy is having a monster year, slashing .317/.407/.605 with 46 home runs, 105 RBI, and 120 runs scored (he leads the MLB in runs, hits, and home runs while leading the AL in BA, OBP, SLG, and Ops). He has reverse splits on the season, slashing .325/.408/.631 against righties, compared to .294/.406/.524 against lefties. Today he gets to face a pitcher who has a 6.75 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 2.6 HR/9 through 72 innings pitched. 

Bryce Harper, PHI OF – Regardless of if he wins MVP or not, Harper is having a fantastic season, slashing .313/.433/.623 with 34 home runs, 13 steals, 40 doubles, 82 RBI, and 98 runs scored (he leads the MLB in SLG and OPS). He is slashing .335/.449/.718 against righties this season, compared to .262/.400/.414 against lefties. He’s also been better at home this season, slashing .329/.463/.671 in Philly, compared to .296/.401/.574 on the road. Today he faces a pitcher who has a 7.28 ERA and 1.75 WHIP on the season. 

Nolan Arenado, STL 3B – Arenado is a good price point on both DK and FD and by good I mean good for us as he is a bit cheaper than he should be. He is hitting .256 on the year with 33 home runs, 34 doubles, and 103 RBI. He has been a FAR better player on the road this year, slashing .282/.335/.534, compared to a lousy .228/.288/.434 line at home in St. Louis. He is hitting .275 with seven home runs, 19 RBI, and 18 runs scored over his last 25 games. 

Paul Goldschmidt, STL 1B – What is this DK price? Someone explain this to me like I’m five. He is priced fairly as a top-tier bat on FD, but DK is treating Goldy like he’s some bum and it has me VERY confused. He is hitting .294 on the year with 30 home runs, 12 steals, 97 RBI, and 99 runs scored. He is slashing .341/.430/.714 over his last 25 games with nine home runs, two steals, 20 RBI, and 28 runs scored. He has been better on the road too, slashing .301/.378/.520 away from St. Louis, compared to .287/.347/.505 at home. 

Harrison Bader, STL OF – Bader is scorching hot at the dish, scoring 15, 7, 12, 26, and 41 points on DK over his last five games. In that span he is 13-19 (.684!) with two home runs, two steals, five RBI, four doubles, and nine runs scored. He is on another planet right now with how hot he is. He is now hitting .270 with 14 home runs and eight steals through 96 games on the year. He has reverse splits with a .274 BA and .334 OBP against righties, compared to .254 and .306 against lefties and ALL eight of his steals are against righties. He is way too cheap and way too hot to not want to play. 

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