Welcome to the Monday Night Showdown Slate for NFL Week 6!

Points should be scored tonight with the Chiefs and Bills both averaging over 27 points per game on the season and likely why Vegas gave us a game total of 55. One of the early stories of the 2020 NFL season is the emergence of Josh Allen as a passer with the Bills quarterback owning an impressive 69.3-percent completion rate on the year after never posting higher than 58% for the season over his first two years in the league. The addition of Stefon Diggs has made this team’s passing attack a real threat and one that can certainly keep up with their opponent tonight. Of course, that opponent is the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs whose offense is running on all cylinders right now with Patrick Mahomes averaging nearly 295 passing yards per game while having thrown 13 touchdowns to just one interception. A healthy Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce continue to giving opposing defenses fits. 

Before we start, please allow me to reiterate that while we all love having a little skin in the game, these showdown slates are basically lottery tickets. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but more often than not, you need that random, differentiate yourself from the herd dart-throw to hit in order to claim that top prize. As a result, we encourage to play responsibly. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK, lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

 

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Chiefs -5.5

O/U: 55

Notable Injuries:

Chiefs:

Sammy Watkins (hamstring – out)

Bills:

Dawson Knox (calf - out)

John Brown (knee - questionable)

Tre’Davious White (back - questionable)

Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):

Chiefs:

vs Pass: 2nd  

vs Run: 28th

Bills:

vs Pass: 13th

vs Run: 22nd

 

Please note the players listed below are done so in order of preference. Just because a player is not listed does not mean they are a full fade.

MVP/CPT

1. Tyreek Hill , KC - I like Hill here for the price as he is cheaper than both QB’s and Travis Kelce on this slate. Here’s what we know, Hill has seen 43-percent of his snaps from the slot this season and players that have lined up in the slot this year have torn apart the Bills defense as they just lack the coverage over the middle and up the seems. Hard to think that Mahomes and Hill won’t be having some fun on deep shots in this match up.

2. Stefon Diggs , BUF - I know, I know, still not QB’s but they are just so expensive I tell you. Many were worried about Diggs when he was traded to the Bills given the team’s run heavy game script and inaccurate QB but boy how things have changed. Week 5 was Diggs third game with over 100 yards receiving this season and the second game in which he saw 10-plus targets. If this game turns into the shootout that many, including Las Vegas is expecting then it’s hard to see how the Chiefs keep Diggs in check.

3. Patrick Mahomes , KC - OK, OK, I conceded, listen, the man is averaging nearly 300-yards passing and three touchdowns per game on the season. Those type of numbers are going to produce a lot of fantasy points as your captain. The trick here of course is being able to fit him in as your captain given the price point while using enough high upside players in your utility spots to make the play worth it. You will likely be using some kickers with Mahomes as the captain tonight.

Mid-Tier

1. Mecole Hardman, KC - This is going to be a popular play here as the Chiefs will be without Sammy Watkins tonight. With Watkins out of the lineup you can expect to see an increase in snap counts for the speedster who is averaging about four targets per game over the last four contests. He is definitely boom or bust but given the match up and the fact that he too likes to be used in the slot in this offense should lead to some opportunities to score. 

2. John Brown , BUF - Brown is questionable to play tonight but he did manage to get in a full practice on Friday before a limited practice on Saturday. The price point for Brown is just far too cheap to ignore and he honestly makes for an interesting MVP/CPT play if deemed active because of it. With most of the defensive focus going on Stefon Diggs , we saw Brown put up some solid numbers in Weeks 1 and 2 before getting hurt.

3. Travis Kelce , KC - Of course Kelce is a great play tonight but he is expensive. The Bills have not had great success stopping opposing tight ends this season and given that Kelce is a focal point of the Chiefs offense it seems unlikely that trend is going to end tonight.

Dart Throw

1. Demarcus Robinson , KC - While everyone is going to look towards Mecole Hardman with Sammy Watkins ruled out, it was actually Robinson who saw the greater snap share in Week 5 with Watkins injured. We saw Robinson have success last year when the team needed him to step up and in Week 1 this year against the Texans he saw six targets and should have had a touchdown if not for a bad drop. 

2. Gabriel Davis, BUF - If John Brown does not play tonight then take a look at Davis who saw nine targets in Week 5 when Brown was out of the lineup. In Week 3 Davis also had a nice game with Brown injured. He is a nice spend down play today but ONLY if Brown is out.