Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Lakers (-7)

Game Total: 210

Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals kicks off tonight between the Lakers and Cli….Nuggets?? Huh, well how about that one? Down 3-1 in the series Denver charged back and beat the Clippers in seven games as starts Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray had fantastic series. In Game 7, Murray dropped 40 points on 15-of-26 shooting while going 6-for-13 from three-point range. Jokic notched a triple-double, scoring 16 points with 22 rebounds, 13 assists, three blocks and two steals. This was his sixth straight game with at least a double-double after his dismal Game 1 against the Clippers to open the series. Outside of these two the production for the Nuggets has been widely inconsistent. For the Lakers, its LeBron James and Anthony Davis . You know the drill with these two, both have the ability to outright dominate both ends of the floor. Jokic may give Davis his toughest matchup so far in the series but Denver has nobody that can check LeBron.

Player Breakdowns

Please note these players are ranked in order. If a player is not mentioned it doesn’t meant they are a fade.

MVP/CPT

1. Jamal Murray , PG DEN – Murray is the cheapest of the core four in this series and while he may have the lowest floor of the group, I like the saving and the upside he brings to the table. The Lakers have not been strong against the point guard position this season and in four games against the Lakers Murray is averaging 18.5 points, 3.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game over 34 minutes.

2. LeBron James , SF LAL – He’s the most expensive but this is crunch time for LeBron as the Lakers are in the Western Conference Finals. As I said above, Denver really does not have anyone that can check LBJ. They may try with a Paul Millsap , Michael Porter , Jerami Grant or even Gary Harris but none of those really scare me off James. Against the Rockets, James dropped 60+ FP in three of the last four games in that series while flirting with a triple-double nearly every night.

3. Rajon Rondo , PG LAL – So, Rondo is questionable with back spasms so definitely pay attention to his status before roster lock but if looking for a spend down captain/mvp option it is hard not to look his way. He flashed that Rondo upside against the Rockets from Games 2-thru-4 when he put up between 37-to-39 DK points during that three-game stretch.

Mid-Tier

1 .Gary Harris , SG DEN – He is the Nuggets 3-and-D wing who is playing big minutes now that he is healthy. The upside for Harris isn’t great, he will like sit between 20-to-25 FP most night but if that three ball can drop or he tacks on a few extra steals then he can easily crack 30 FP.

2. Kyle Kuzma , SF LAL – The problem with these two teams is that the offense is so focused one the top end talent that everyone else is a role player with limited upside. Kuzma is a talented scorer but may struggle to get more than 10 shot attempts. Over the last 10 games he has gone for 20+ FP just five times.

3. Paul Millsap , PF DEN – I think we see more Millsap in this series than in past series but honestly who knows with how the Nuggets run their rotation between Millsap, Grant and Porter. I think his veteran presence will be leaned upon in this series. During the regular season Millsap averaged nearly 28 FP in four games against the Lakers while playing just 24 minutes a night.

Dart Throws

1. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope , SG LAL – What I like about KCP is that his minutes are pretty much locked in between 25-to-30 a night. His role on this roster at least means he has the opportunity to score points. He is a three-point shooter that plays defense but rarely seems much more than six shot attempts a night so this isn’t that same thing like we had last night with Duncan Robinson where he has free reign to chuck. In three games against the Nuggets this season KCP is averaging 18 FP over 30 minutes. That seems about right to me, maybe he can knock down a few more open looks.

2. Michael Porter , SF DEN – So, Porter is quite the expensive dart throw but a player like him really has the upside to break a slate. We saw it a few times this playoffs like when he went for 40 FP against the Clippers and throughout the bubble he had stretches of taking over games. His minutes and productivity has been up and down since the playoffs began but if you are willing to pay the price for a shot that he gets hot then he could pay off. If he flops then he is an expensive mistake.