Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics (-1.5)

Game Total: 208.5

Game 1 of the ECF kicks off tonight with the Heat and Celtics. Boston coming in after a tough seven game series against the Raptors while the Heat were able to dispose of the Milwaukee Bucks in five games. Starting with Miami, Jimmy Butler , Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo are the players to know in this series against Boston and where most of the scoring production is going to come from. The likes of Jae Crowder , Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson will be secondary players in this series with their overall production likely to be a bit more sporadic against a strong defensive Boston team. For the Celtics, their rotation doesn't go much more than seven deep and you can almost count on Jayson Tatum , Jaylen Brown , Kemba Walker , Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis to play the majority of the minutes with lesser options in Brad Wannamaker, Robert Williams and Grant Williams coming off the bench. At some point in this series the Celtics are expected to get Gordon Hayward back but he has already been ruled out for Game 1.

Heat Players to Target

Jimmy Butler - Butler had some monster efforts against the Bucks, scoring 40 and 30 points in Games 1 and 3. His fantasy production in the other three games were rather pedestrian. Boston has much more capable defenders on the wings and you can almost bank on Marcus Smart being the one to body him up more often than not. Smart was just recently named to the NBA First Team All Defense so I don't expect things to be easy for Butler in this series.

Goran Dragic - We saw Kyle Lowry really be able to score against Boston and with Smart having his hands full with Jimmy Butler that means Dragic is likely going up against the smaller Kemba Walker . I like this for Dragic and think he should be a solid source of production much like we saw from him during Pacers and Bucks series this playoffs. 

Bam Adebayo - The Celtics often struggle against opposing centers and while Daniel Theis had some nice games against the Raptors, I think Bam is going to really have the advantage here tonight. His ability to fill up the stat sheet gives him great upside and his contributions on both ends of the floor allow for a nice fantasy floor.

Jae Crowder - We have some revenge narrative in play here with Crowder being the player the Celtics moved on from to allow for Gordon Hayward to join the roster. Crowder played really well against the Bucks and is your typical 3-and-D wing. He is going to be tasked with locking up Jayson Tatum in this series.

Tyler Herro - Off the bench the Heat will need Herro for scoring, like the Raptors Norman Powell , Boston's second unit can be taken advantage of and Herro should be able to get it going.

Celtics Players to Target

Jayson Tatum - Tatum comes into tonight's game with four straight double-doubles while scoring at least 24 points in three of the last four. He is the elite play on the Celtics.

Kemba Walker - Walker had a down series against the Raptors but Kyle Lowry is a much tougher match for Walker than Goran Dragic will be and therefore I think Walker is going to really bounce back here in this series.

Jaylen Brown - The defensive numbers is what really pops for Brown's fantasy upside as over the last three games he has totaled nine steals. Those steals add to the fact that he has scored at least 21 points in each of the las three games. Brown is going to fill up the stat sheet here. The match up will be interesting as he likely draws Jimmy Butler defense.

Marcus Smart - Smart was possibly the Celtics best consistent player during the Raptors series. He lead the team in three-point shooting and his defensive upside stands on its own merits. He should be on Jimmy Butler for most of this series.

Daniel Theis - I don't love him in this series against Bam but Theis can likely give you somewhere in the range of 10+ points, 7+ rebounds and 1.5+ blocks per game. Price wise, he will fit into a lot of lineups.

Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers (-7.5)

Game Total: 208.5

Did not think we would be talking about this series being in Game 7. The Clippers were big favorites coming into the series while the Nuggets were coming off a grueling seven game series against the Jazz but here we are. Over the last few games the Nuggets have been lifted by Nikola Jokic who is dominating his match up and has gone for a double-double in every game since Game 2 while scoring no less than 22 points with at least 11 rebounds and five assists. Jamal Murray has been up and down but over the last two games he too has been nails. For the Clippers Kawhi Leonard continues to carry this team on both ends of the floor but the secondary pieces remain inconsistent whether it be Paul George , Lou Williams or the likes of Montrezl Harrell and Marcus Morris . Ultimately I think the Clippers grab this one but I think the Nuggets will cover.

Nuggets Players to Target

Nikola Jokic - After Game 1 I blasted Jokic for his lackluster performance. The Clippers have struggled against centers for the past few years and in one of the biggest games all we got from Jokic was 15 points, wit three rebounds and three assists. Just can't happen. Apparently I wasn't the only one who felt this way as a switch has since flipped with Jokic dominating since then. He is finally worth the 10K price tag you have to pay for him and I expected another high end double-double tonight.

Jamal Murray - He is boom or bust and I love that about him. Over the last two games the scoring upside has been there and in this type of game where all the cards are on the table I want to have some Murray in my lineup for that GPP upside.

Gary Harris - He is healthy, hitting his shots and playing defense. He doesn't have big upside but he has at least 22 FP in three of the last four games.

Paul Millsap /Michael Porter - Flip a coin and take your pick. With this being Game 7 I want to lean towards the veteran in Millsap. Both have had their shares of big games and duds.

Clippers Players to Target

Kawhi Leonard - Not too much needs to be said here. You know you can lock in Leonard for 25-to-30 points with 8+ rebounds with a share of assists, blocks and steals. This is a closeout game for Leonard and I think he will make sure his season doesn't end.

Paul George - George has been very inconsistent during the playoffs but this series he has really gotten it going. Over the last two games he has put up over 50 FP. The price tag here, especially on FanDuel is too hard to ignore. It's going to be a two-man show tonight in my opinion.

Ivica Zubac - Harrell doesn't look right yet Zubac is the cheaper play. Neither are great but right now at least Zubac is giving you around a fantasy point per minute when on the floor.

 

Please note lineups below are not meant for plug and plan and are examples of lineups created using lineup generator, playbook and tools