Boston Celtics(-1.5) vs Toronto Raptors
Game Total: 214.5
The Celtics were 0.5 seconds away from having a 3-0 stranglehold on this series which would have made today's game a possible closeout game for Boston. However, OG Anunoby ends up hitting the buzzer-beating game winner after an incredible inbound pass from Kyle Lowry over the 10-foot tall Tacko Fall and we now have a series on our hands with Boston leading two games to one. So, what to expect in Game 4? I honestly think much of the same. These two teams have played pretty competitively since the Game 1 blowout win with each team having players get hot at times whether it be Robert Williams for Boston or Anunoby for Toronto coming up as key role players or the studs like Jayson Tatum and Kember Walker leading the way while Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet finally are getting it going.
Celtics Player to Target
Jayson Tatum - Tatum has been filling up the stat sheet for us in these three games but in only Game 2 did he explode and give us that top end fantasy production with a 50 FP effort. In the two other games this series he has been held below 40 FP. If we are paying this price tag we need to see more scoring for Tatum to help boost the fantasy production he is giving us with his rebounds and assists.
Kemba Walker - Walker had it all going in Game 3, scoring 29 points on his way to a 40+ FP effort. He notched a double-double in Game 1 but struggled heavily in Game 2. As long as the knee is not a problem he offers a nice upside play even if the price tag continue to rise. I like this match up for him against Toronto as his quickness is a clear factor.
Marcus Smart - Solid floor with the potential for nice upside. Even in Smart's Game 2 heroics for Boston when he hit five three-pointers he still only finished with 25+ fantasy points. What I like here is that the minutes are always going to be there and he does just enough of everything to make him fantasy viable.
Jaylen Brown - Brown has been one of the more consistent fantasy producers for Boston over the past two games and it's all thanks again to his ability to fill the stat sheet. On the defensive end Brown has totals six blocks and three steals over the last two contets while averaging around 17 points, 10 rebounds and two assists. He is the third scoring option at times for this team behind Tatum and Walker but it's not because he can't score. Solid mid-tier price point here.
Daniel Theis - While Robert Williams was certainly a story for the first two games of the series we should not forgot about Theis who has been just as productive even if the actual points haven't been there. With Theis you get a decent rebounder and a strong defensive player in this match up where he isn't overmatched due to his smaller size at the position. Foul trouble tends to always be the one draw back.
Robert Williams - It's clear that the "TimeLord" is capable to exploit something here with Toronto but we have to at least be realistic in understanding that he has yet to play more than 18 minutes in any of the games in this series and unless he is incredibly effecient scoring the basketball there is a very low floor to this player as well. The price is nice and he can be a difference maker when blocking shots. He is nothing more than a dart throw.
Raptors Player to Target
Kyle Lowry - Offensively we finally saw Lowry bust out in Game 3 as he scored a series best 31 points while playing an insane 46 minutes. It's clear the Raptors are going to give Lowry all the minutes he can handle here, especially as they look to even the series. Look for Boston to stick Marcus Smart when he starts to get it going but Lowry's ability to fill the stat sheet will make him a nice play if you are willing to pay the price tag.
Fred VanVleet - VanVleet has been steady in this series and the price tag isn't awful. He has had the misfortunate of poor shooting and tough defense by Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown at times in this series. Boston does not want him to get hot and take over so I expect to see VanVleet need to grind it out again in Game 4. It's encouraging to see that he has played at least 40 minutes in each of the last two games however making it clear that he will be on the floor as much as possible.
Pascal Siakam - Aside from Game 2 where his ability to fill the box score helped him put up 46 FP, it has been a rough fantasy series for Siakam as he finished with 23 and 31 FP in the prior two games. The defense on him has been stellar between Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown really making it tough. At some point I do expect him to get going in at last one game this series. The price tag doesn't equal the recent production but if you expect another back and forth game you have to assume he is part of it.
OG Anunoby - He hit the biggest shot of he series to win Game 3 to cap off a game which saw him play 45 minutes. At his price tag I see no reason not to put him in your lineups if this is the role he is going to play. You know he is going to be on the glass and contributing on the defensive end. If the shot drops as well then the uspide is there.
Serge Ibaka /Marc Gasol - I don't really love either play here. If I pick one it would probably be Ibaka given his scoring upside. The Celtics match up well here which is rare to say as Boston usually struggles against opposing centers but Gasol is just too slow and Ibaka matches them size wise.
Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers (-9.5)
Game Total: 222.5
The Clippers fought off the Nuggest first quarter push and that was pretty much all she wrote for Game 1 as they took an 18 point lead into half-time and extended that lead to win by 23. We are looking at another near double-digit spread for Game 2 and the facts are pretty simple here. The Clippers are the best team up and down the roster. They clearly have the best player in Kawhi Leonard and it can be an argument when it comes to Paul George , Nikola Jokic or Jamal Murray who is number two in my opinion. The key to this series for the Nuggets is going to be Jokic as centers have dominated the Clippers this season yet in Game 1 he scored just 15 points in 29 minutes. That just can't happen. Let's see how Game 2 plays out, but know that my hopes here aren't high for Denver to be competitive.
Nuggets Players to Target
Nikola Jokic - I just said it above, if the Nuggets are going to compete it's because they need a game out of Jokic that they got in Game 7 against the Jazz where he scores 30+ with 10+ rebounds and asserts his dominance on the offensive end of the floor. He has a massive size advantage over Montrezl Harrell and while Zubac is solid he isn't a defensive stopper by any stretch. If we get less than 20 shots out of Jokic then they can just end this series after two games.
Jamal Murray - Murray is always going to be boom or bust. That's why he is a great GPP player. You get the 60+ FP games and then he gives you the 20 FP games in the middle. This is not going to be an easy series for him with Patrick Beverley and Landry Shamet playing defense. He is going to need to rely on his volume scoring but he needs to understand that he isn't playing Utah anymore.
I'll be honest, I don't like any of what else the Nuggets have to offer. Monte Morris , maybe but the rest is far too inconsistent and the match ups they have are not good. If you want to throw a dart at Michael Porter , Jerami Grant or Paul Millsap then by all means do so but know you are just as likely to get 15 FP as you are 30 FP from the group.
Clippers Players to Target
Kawhi Leonard - We could probably just stop here and it would be fine. Leonard is the best player on this slate, and while he is also the most expensive, I have no problem paying the price. He scored 29 points in 31 minutes in Game 1 and if Denver decides to make Game 2 a bit more competitive then Leonard's ceiling could have him flirting with another 60+ FP performance.
Paul George - George is finally becoming a bit more consistent with his fantasy production and while we are use to seeing him put up monster numbers in the past, the facts are just that when Leonard is on the floor the offense flows in that direction. That said, another mid-30s-to-low-40s level of fantasy points should be in the cards here as long as the Nuggets don't just roll over and play dead.
Marcus Morris - Morris has been my guy all playoffs. He is constantly under-priced and almost always exceeds his fantasy value. He should definitely be in lineups yet again tonight.
Montrezl Harrell /Ivica Zubac - Harrell put up 27 FP in just 19 minutes in Game 1. That's generally what he does. I do expect maybe a bit more minutes to come his way if the game was a bit closer but both centers should settle in around 20-to-25 minutes in my opinion. Both are strong fantasy point per minute plays and neither costs that much.
Lou Williams - The price is decent and he is the best offensive player the Clippers have coming off their bench but the fantasy upside hasn't really popped in some time. Don't love it but hey, maybe he gives us a repeat of his Game 4 performance against Denver when he popped for 36 points.
Patrick Beverley - Going to be on a minutes limit like he was in Game 1 when he saw just 12. He killed those 12 minutes though, scoring eight points with six boards and two assists. I'm not going here unless we find out that limit is boosted to at least 18.