Behind the Breakout: Yuli Gurriel

It’s a family affair in the Behind the Breakout series with Yuli Gurriel joining his younger brother Lourdes as a highlighted player within the series. For those living under a rock, Gurriel’s been on fire over his last 17 games hitting 11 home runs and driving in 23 with a robust .366/.416/.873 slash line. Within this sample dating back to June 22nd, Gurriel leads the majors in home runs, isolated power (.507) and weighted on-base average (.515). Mike Trout and Cody Bellinger each launched eight home runs in this time frame, but lag behind Gurriel in the other two categories.

Prior to this hot streak, Gurriel owned a .681 on-base plus slugging percentage with only five home runs in 70 games. So, what happened? For starters, Gurriel’s pulled the ball more (49.3 percent) in the last 17 contests while producing fly balls 50.7 percent of the time and an unsustainable 32.4 home run per fly ball percentage with a 41.8 hard hit rate. It’s tough to wrap one’s head around Gurriel leading in isolated power with the 75th best hard hit percentage in this time span.

In 2019, Gurriel’s displayed improvements in his discipline producing slightly more contact but with fewer swinging strikes and less swings at pitches outside the strike zone. In fact, during his 17 game hot streak, Gurriel’s walked six times against four strikeouts. He’s locked in. Gurriel’s also generating more fly balls while cutting down on ground balls. Heck, he’s even upped his line drive rate this year.

Sustainability does not seem likely when transitioning to his Statcast data. Gurriel’s average exit velocity this year of 88.7 MPH ranks 90th in the majors and sits slightly below his total from last year. He’s only registered 11 barrels of his 316 batted ball events. Gurriel’s 11 barrels rates 127th in the majors. One area of improvement, Gurriel’s increased his launch angle to 15.6 degrees compared to only 11.5 last year. But his expected statistics of a .277 batting average and .397 slugging portend some correction.

Here’s a look at Gurriel’s rolling weighted on-base average chart courtesy of Statcast:

It lacks consistency and combine this with his actual numbers compared to expected ones within his zone profiles:

It’s been a tremendous run for Gurriel over the last 17 games, but it appears he will not hit over 30 home runs this year, even with the new environment favoring hitters. Currently, Gurriel’s on pace for 148 games, 595 at-bats, 89 runs, 27 home runs, 94 RBI and five stolen bases. There’s nothing to sneeze at here, especially with a batting average of .284 through his first 349 at-bats. However, when trying to discern how he will finish the season the data does not add up. Here’s Gurriel’s rest-of-the-season projections from three different systems:

Again, solid yet not spectacular. Either projection set gets him at a career best 24 or 25 home runs this year with a chance at 90-plus RBI. Knowing his career slash of .289/.323/.459 sets a nice baseline, his average will not collapse. If one plucked Gurriel off the waiver wire, he will be a potential hero for league winners. Just understand Gurriel will not maintain his present torrid pace over the course of the season noting his hard hit rates in comparison to his recent production.

Discerning between a hot streak and a breakout can be tough to do. In this case, Gurriel will finish with a career year but it’s not a skillset which will provide future growth potential Rather, it will end up as an outlier year for a steady fantasy producer on a team primed to fill up counting statistics. Treat Yuli Gurriel accordingly.

Statistical Credits:

BaseeballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

Steamerprojections.com

Behind the Breakout: Yuli Gurriel

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