Orlando Magic vs New York Knicks

Orlando Magic: -7.5

Game Total: 215

Here we have two teams quite literally heading in different directions.  The Magic are 8-2 over their last 10 games while the Knicks are 2-8 over their last 10.  The Knicks just picked up their first home win of the new year the other night on the heels of huge performances from what is likely their young core in Dennis Smith Jr. , Kevin Knox and Mitchell Robinson who all finished with double-doubles and Damyean Dotson who lead the team in scoring with 27 points.  For tonight’s matchup against the Magic nothing really changes for me when it comes to who on the Knicks we should be looking to play. Once DSJ was traded to the Knicks we have told you to ride the wave as we expect him to be the most consistent and that has held true as he is averaging 16.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 6.9 assists and 1.8 steals per game since the trade. A guy I have been fanboying over for a while now is Mitchell Robinson . On FanDuel especially, Robinson has been a beast thanks to his elite shot blocking prowess. Over the last four games Robinson has blocked 16 shots with is an average of four shots per game. On DK that is 12 fantasy points in blocked shots alone. Robinson isn’t just a shot blocker though, he is incredibly efficient around the hoop, shooting 68.8% from the floor. When playing at least 20 minutes a game this season Robinson is averaging 8.5 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.6 blocks over 25.4 minutes per contest. He should see over 30 minutes again tonight with DeAndre Jordan doubtful to play. On DK he seems just too cheap to fade on this small slate. The final player I am looking on the Knicks tonight is Dotson. In the two games since the All-Star break he has played 34 and 37 minutes while scoring 20 and 27 actual points. Dotson has taken 10+ shots in four straight games and this production is no fluke. It was a long time ago but back in the first month or so of the season we saw Dotson emerge as a solid scorer before fading back to the black. I trust him tonight and on this small slate I think he is worth the price.  I don’t care much for Kevin Knox , it’s a personal preference. For me Knox is just a scorer that provides little in the secondary stat category and before you bring up his double-double the other night let me stop you there and say I know but I’d want to see it happen again before I buy in.

For the Magic, I am all in on Terrence Ross , Jonathan Isaac and Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon tonight.  James Grande likes DJ Augustin as value and I don’t hate the play but don’t think its really needed tonight. Ross and Isaac are two players that we have been preaching pretty regularly for a while now for your GPP lineups and its rare that they have high ownerships. Tonight everybody will be 25-30% owned so we will have to live with it but the Knicks are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Kevin Knox has a defensive player rating of 113.5. Emmanuel Muddiay has one slightly worse at 113.9.  You can attack this team and have success.  If Orlando makes the playoffs we might see Ross get 6th Man of the year consideration as he averages 14.9 points and 2.5 three-pointers per game. He just scored 28 points against the Raptors the other night. He is averaging 17 points per game over his last five contests.  Isaac has played over 30 minutes in each of the first two games since returning from the ASB. Issac has had a strong February in which he is averaging 13.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, 1.2 steals and 1.8 three-pointers per game. His ability to fill up the stat sheet is incredibly favorable in DFS and his price, though on the rise, I feel is still too cheap given his upside.  If paying up for center tonight I think we go with Vucevic over Jokic tonight.  For all his shot blocking ability, Mitchell Robinson is foul happy and not a great defender. This means we could see Vuc at the free throw line A TON here.  I think a double-double is a lock for him tonight. Finally, we have Aaron Gordon , again, a player I don’t love but James Grande thinks could have a big night as we have made a good chunk of cash this year attack the Knicks power forward position.

 

Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors

Toronto Raptors: -4

Game Total: 226.5

This is an interesting matchup because we have a possible playoff preview between two teams that everybody figured would be battling for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. Instead the Raptors are where everybody figured they would be but the Celtics are floundering around the middle of the conference and are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Bulls over the weekend.  Despite the woes of the Celtics team as a whole, Kyrie Irving continues to be a beast in DFS. He has played over 40 minutes in each game since the ASB and put up 60+ fantasy points against Chicago.  Irving has dominated the Raptors this season, averaging over 50 FP and 30 actual points in three games.  He leads my Celtics core tonight. Following him I think we have Jayson Tatum , Al Horford and Gordon Hayward .  Tatum is averaging 35 FP in three games against the Raptors this season as he rises to the challenge.  Horford has been a monster lately as we saw him go for 60 FP against the Bucks last Thursday. A surprising pick might be Hayward but the proof is in the numbers here. In the three games against the Raptors this season Hayward is averaging over 30 fantasy points and on DK he is just too cheap. His price on FanDuel is also fair. It seems like in a matchup against one of the leagues best teams that head coach Brad Stevens trusts Hayward more than the likes of Jaylen Brown and thus we get solid production out of Gordon.

For the Raptors I only really have interest in two players and that is Kawhi Leonard and Marc Gasol assuming he remains in the starting lineup.  Leonard is averaging 50+ FP against the Celtics over three games, putting up 32 points with nearly 10 rebounds, three assists and nearly three steals per game. The thing with Kawhi is the fact that he hasn’t really popped off in a while and has often fallen below that 5x return we are looking for. It is a small slate so for that fact he is certainly in play.  I like Marc Gasol just purely for his ability to fill up the stat sheet. He has a tough matchup against Al Horford but I feel like this is the type of game the Raptors got Gasol for.  I don’t think it’s a coincidence he made his first start the game prior to this one. I think we see him play close to 30 minutes tonight and he has a real nice price tag.  Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam are in play but just not on my radar tonight given other options.  Again, it’s a three-game slate so most are in play.

 

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets

Denver Nuggets: -3

Game Total: 237.5

This is the game where the chalk lives IMO. We have Westbrook and George figuring to be the two highest owned players of the slate given that they have the highest upside of nearly any player on tonight’s slate.  On the other side we have Nikola Jokic who is the most expensive center on tonight’s board and GPP darlings in Paul Millsap and Jamal Murray .  Let’s start with the Thunder here. Westbrook has yet to notch a triple-double since coming out of the ASB but in two games against the Nuggets this season he averages a triple-double and 52 fantasy points per game. Westbrook just went for 64 FP against the Kings the other night and that is after going for 82 FP in the double OT game against the Jazz.  On a small slate I expect ownership on Westbrook to be north of 50% and fading him is likely not the smartest idea. If you do fade Westbrook it is because you want to play his partner in crime Paul George . George has been equally as dominant this season and priced appropriately. In two games against the Nuggets he averages 49 FP. He slumped a bit against the Kings but I will give him a pass as they played a double OT game the night before. In that double OT game we saw George go for 71 FP against the Jazz.  We gotta love the 237.5 game total here.  Some other possible plays on the Thunder include Jeremy Grant but I worry about Markieff Morris possibly cutting into some of his playing time.

On the Nuggets we have Jokic who we love on DK because of the bonuses for double-doubles and triple-doubles. In the two games against the Thunder this season Jokic is averaging 20.0 points, 10.5 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 1.5 steals per game for a total average of 46 FP.  With Trey Lyles out of the lineup we have seen Paul Millsap play over 30 minutes in three straight games.  During this three-game stretch Millsap is averaging 21.0 points, 14.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.7 steals and 1.3 blocks per game. He is the top priced PF on FanDuel so I understand if you may look elsewhere but on DK you absolutely can’t fade him at his price tag.  At point guard we always like to include Jamal Murray in the GPP write-ups and I think he is fine but I actually have interest in Isaiah Thomas who has taken 11 shots in back-to-back games and we saw him play 23 minutes the other night. If Thomas is going to be playing 20-25 minutes a night then I am buying in given his low price tag.