Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics

O/U: 8

OAK -134

Ballpark: Dodger Stadium

 

We have two division match-up’s in the ALDS between Houston and Oakland and Tampa Bay and New York. The Astros open up as underdogs in this series despite winning both of their games in the last series, while Oakland was pushed to Game 3.

Houston

Houston will open up the ALDS with Lance McCullers Jr. on the mound and although McCullers has had moments of brilliance throughout his career, they’ve rarely come on the road. At home this year, McCullers shined. He pitched to a 1.42 ERA and held his opponents to a .159 AVG. On the road, however, his ERA was 7.33 and the opposition hit .290. We can expand this to a larger sample too, how about for his career? Well, much of the same. 2.51 ERA at home and 4.99 on the road. .272 wOBA allowed at home, .330 on the road. The 12th most runs per game was scored at Dodger Stadium this year.

Moving over to the Houston offense which has a pretty long history against A’s starter Chris Bassitt . Bassitt and the Astros have faced off three times this season, and Bassitt has pitched to a 2.65 ERA, going 1-1 against him.

If we take a look at BvP, the Astros have a few hitters that stand out. George Springer is first, as he’s hit 2 HR with a .294 AVG and .353 wOBA vs. Bassitt over his career. Yuli Gurriel and his new contract extension is 7-for-19 (.368 AVG) and Carlos Correa is 4-for-10 (.400 AVG).

Moving on to numbers that actually matter now. Bassitt struggled more with lefties (.324 wOBA) than he did with right-handers (.260 wOBA). Houston will deploy three in their lineup for this contest in Michael Brantley , Kyle Tucker and Josh Reddick . Brantley and Tucker are the two that intrigue me the most as Brantley posting a .331 AVG and .398 wOBA vs. RHP while Tucker hit .293 himself to go along with a .375 wOBA. Reddick is cheap, but that’s really all the good we have to say about him.

Oakland

With Chris Bassitt on the hill in the Wild Card round, Oakland won Game 2 and forced a Game 3 that they obviously won considering they’re here. Bassitt fired seven innings of one run ball while striking out five. He’s actually only allowed 2 ER over his last five starts (including the postseason) with one of those outing seven scoreless innings against HOU. Houston ranked 19th in baseball in OPS and wOBA vs. RHP.

When the A’s hitters step into the box, it’ll be against Lance McCullers, who again, has not pitched well on the road. I can’t stress that enough. He’s allowed a .559 SLG, .401 wOBA and 45.8% hard-hit rate away from Houston.

On the road against left-handed hitters this year, McCullers allowed a .407 wOBA and .596 SLG. The A’s have some strong left-handed hitters in their lineup with Tommy La Stella , Jake Lamb and Matt Olson . I should add Robbie Grossman into that equation as well. La Stella has a .387 wOBA vs. RHP. Lamb hit .310 against RHP and is one of the better values of the day. Olson hit 11 HR vs. RHP and Grossman hit 8 HR and a .370 wOBA.

Mark Canha has hit .310 with a .979 OPS over his last 10 games and Lance McCullers allowed .338 wOBA to them this year. Sean Murphy has arguably been Oakland’s best hitter lately as he’s riding a five game hitting streak and he even homered his last time out. Marcus Semien has hits in two straight playoff games, is leading off and is a good price point.

 

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

O/U - 7

NYY -143

Ballpark: PETCO Park in San Diego

 

I’m not sure why the Yankees are favored here considering how dominant the Rays were against them this year, but here we are. Everyone loves offense and there are few offenses as polarizing as the Yanks.

New York

Gerrit Cole was paid the money he was for moments like this. He responded in his first playoff start with the Yankees going seven innings allowing 2 ER with 13 K’s. Hopefully the Yankees start Kyle Higashioka behind the plate here because Cole has a 1.00 ERA with a 34:5 K:BB ratio when they’re battery mates. His ERA spikes to 3.91 when Gary Snachez is behind the dish. (Thanks to Greg Jewett for that nugget)

They beat two really good pitchers in Carlos Carrasco and likely AL Cy Young Shane Bieber . Blake Snell is really good but has been susceptible to the HR ball, allowing 10 HR across 55.2 IP.

Right-handed hitters have much more success against Snell than lefties, as they posted a .320 wOBA versus him this season. The Yankees best hitters against LHP were DJ LeMahieu (.400 AVG and .432 wOBA), Aaron Judge (3 HR, .382 wOBA) and Luke Voit (6 HR, .373 wOBA).

If you want to play the hot hands, Gio Urshela has done a little of everything for the Yankees lately, but has hit .354 over his last 14 games. Aaron Hicks has also looked good at the dish lately hitting 2 HR and Kyle Higashioka , who could start here, is hitting .353 with 3 HR over that same timespan. 

Tampa Bay

It’s been a good stretch of games for Snell as he continues to shut offenses down. He’s only allowed more than one earned run once over his last four starts. He’s also looked good in the strikeout department, punching out nine in each of his last two starts. The Yankees posted a 22.6% K-rate against left-handed pitching this year.

We should target Gerrit Cole with power hitters. Ji-Man Choi stands out more than anyone else, however, due to his ownage of Cole. He’s 9-for-17 with 3 HR and 8 RBI against Cole. Brandon Lowe hit 8 HR vs. RHP and posted a .355 wOBA as well. 

Over his last 14 games, Joey Wendle posted a .353 average with 1 HR and 4 RBI. He’s the team's hottest hitter. Randy Arozarena is a cheap number three hitter and has a .349 wOBA vs. RHP. Yandy Díaz is 5-for-15 with a homer against Gerrit Cole and is leading off here.

 

 

**These are Example Lineups, they are not meant to be plugged in and played as is.**