Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs

O/U: 7

CHC -200

MIA

The Marlins are flooded with young talent and they send one to the hill in this contest with Sixto Sánchez being named the Game 2 starter. Sanchez isn’t a huge strikeout guy -- at least yet -- but he doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact either, allowing just 28% this season, which benefits him against the Cubs here. We haven’t seen Sanchez surpass 90 pitches in a game this year and don’t expect this to be the first time. The Marlins will be cautious with their young star pitcher. He’s a contrarian GPP option as he’s a big road dog.

Moving over to their offense, we will not being seeing Starling Marte here which is unfortunate because the Marlins went and got him to be a staple at the top of their lineup for this playoff push. Instead, Corey Dickerson will lead off. Dickerson went yard in the first game of this series and if there’s one thing that has always given Yu Darvish problem’s it’s lefty power. Out of the three lefties the Marlins are sending to the plate (Dickerson, Matt Joyce , Magneuris Sierra ) Dickerson has the most upside.

If you’re going contrarian, Jesús Aguilar has homered in three-of-four games and is only 3.6K on DraftKings while Jon Berti stole two bases in the series opener and is hitting second. We know Darvish has a very extended delivery to the plate and is easy to run on. Look for Berti to run wild if he reaches. Garrett Cooper has hits in seven straight and 9-of-10 overall if you’re looking to stack against Darvish.

CHC

It’s likely that Trevor Bauer takes home the Cy Young award for this shortened season, but Darvish is going to finish a close second or third for the award. He finished his season throwing seven shutout innings against a potent White Sox offense, as he notched a 2.01 ERA while striking out 93 batters across 76 IP this season. The Marlins struggled against RHP this season ranking 27th in OPS while posting a 25.1% K-rate, the 10th highest mark in the league.

How the Cubs will give Sixto Sánchez problems is by the hand of their right-handed hitters. Sanchez allowed a .329 wOBA to RHH on the year while LHH posted a poultry .232 mark. The Cubs best RHH have struggled this year. I’m talking about Kris Bryant and Javier Báez . Both are hitting less than .210 vs. RHP, but today could be their coming out party. Baez has a hit in four straight while Bryant has homered in 2-of-3. 

How can we ignore Willson Contreras though? Despite the fact that spending up on a catcher is contrarian, we have to be different on a two-game slate. He had a strong .366 wOBA vs. RHP this year and that number rose hitting at home, moving on up to .375. I’d also consider Jason Heyward and his .297 AVG and .403 wOBA vs. RHP and Anthony Rizzo who hit 10 HR vs. RHP and has a .337 wOBA to boot.


 

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres

O/U - 9

SD -115

STL

With their season on the line, Jack Flaherty , the Cardinals supposed Ace takes the hill. He’s been anything but an ace as he posted a 4.91 ERA this year and really struggled to get going at times. He looked brilliant a few times, especially against the Pirates just two starts ago striking out 11 over six innings, but the start before that he gave up 9 ER to Milwaukee, an offense that hasn’t hit a lick all year long. Flaherty really struggled away from home pitching to an 8.35 ERA compared to 2.05 in STL. This one is in SD and although it’s considered a pitchers park, those road numbers don’t stack up well with this Padres offense.

The Cardinals offense gets to square up against the Padres bullpen, because let’s call it how we see it; SD is hurting on the mound. Clevinger and Lamet are out and they don’t really have any traditional starter that can give them length here.

We’re starting at the top here with the Cardinals as Paul Goldschmidt has looked great this postseason homered in both games. He comes into this one hitting in 8-of-10 games overall too. The other three Cardinals we should focus on are Dylan Carlson, Yadier Molina and Kolten Wong . Carlson has been moved into the four-hole for STL and has been arguably their hottest hitter over the past couple weeks. He’s notched a 1.047 OPS over his last 10 games, flashing power upside (6 XBH) and some speed as he’s stolen a base and stretched one of those doubles into a triple. He’s only 3.1K on DK. Yadier Molina has five multi-hit games over his last nine including two over his first two postseason games. Wong homered on Thursday, leads off and is riding a nine-game hitting streak overall.

I’d be willing to take a shot on Dexter Fowler in this match-up as well. Not knowing how many different pitchers the Padres will use, Fowler is a switch-hitter and can match-up with whomever takes the hill. He’s also a free square at 2.5K and has two two-hit games this postseason. Matt Carpenter is a play if you’re feeling frisky.

SD

Again, no idea what San Diego is going to do on the mound and even their own manager expressed that. I’m staying away from this situation completely. It’s going to be a crapshoot on how they navigate through nine innings here. Can Fernando Tatis Jr. pitch?

Speaking of Fernando Tatis Jr. , yeah, he’s good. He homered twice in Game 2 to keep the Padres season alive and had three hits and drove in five runs overall. Although Jack Flaherty really struggles with left-handers more, Tatis Jr. is as elite as it gets.

I mentioned Flaherty struggles with lefties, right? 2.05 HR/9, .451 SLG and .327 wOBA. Insert both Eric Hosmer and Mitch Moreland and to a lesser extent, Trent Grisham. Moreland and Hosmer could give Flaherty fits here as Hosmer hit .330 with a .408 wOBA vs. RHP this year while Moreland had a .586 SLG, .315 ISO and .387 wOBA vs. RHP, correlating perfectly with Flaherty. I said Grisham to a lesser extent because he strikes out a LOT, but is 4-for-6 vs. Flaherty and had a .357 wOBA vs. RHP as well.

Considering SD is so expensive on this slate, guys like Jurickson Profar and Tommy Pham are solid values. Monitor Pham’s status as he battles through pain in his hand. His manager said he should be available in Game 3, however.