Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat

Total: 224

Spead: MIA -8

Pace - MIA 109.53 (1st) -- ATL 101.50 (24th)

DRtg - MIA 100.9 (10th) -- ATL 100.3 (T-8th)

 

Atlanta 

Injuries

Chandler Parsons - OUT

Evan Turner - DOUBT

This is going to be a tough one for Atlanta considering they’re traveling and it’s the second night of a back-to-back. It’s not far to travel from Georgia to Florida, but still, they didn’t get to sleep in their own beds after a tough loss against Philadelphia.

Trae Young is the top play from Atlanta and it’s not at all close. He’s scored 25-plus actual points in all three games this year and is averaging 56 FP/game to boot. There is 60pplus point-upside which is over 7x value. The rest of the Hawks are tricky to figure out. I worry about John Collins and his foul happy nature considering Bam Adebayo has taken 27 free throws through three games, but he’s fine for GPP’s. The two already mentioned are the clear cut top two options on the team.

Things start getting dicey after them, however. DeAndre Hunter played 30 minutes on Monday and was one rebound away from a double-double. DeAndre’ Bembry has played 23 minutes a game, but he’s never a very exciting play. He’s extremely cheap across the industry however and FD forces us to play two guys at every position other than center. Jabari Parker is the GPP play of the group, however. With Turner expected to sit and a few guys limited, Parker could find himself playing 20-plus minutes and being a key contributor offensively especially considering SF and PF are the two positions the Heat have failed to defend the most.

At center, I hate Alex Len . He’s a bum and the fact he’s still starting on an NBA team is insane. The real center play here is Bruno Fernando . Fernando saw his most minutes (16) and responded with 11 points (career-high), four rebounds, two assists and two blocks. He can jump out of the gym and can step outside and knock down a three as well. It wouldn’t surprise me if he continues to outplay Len.

 

Miami 

Injuries

Dion Waiters - OUT

Derrick Jones Jr. - OUT

James Johnson - OUT

Kelly Olynyk - PROB

It’s the return of Jimmy Butler , well, the debut, but you get what I mean. The Heat offense has been fantastic without him, so what kind of wrench will be thrown in their plans? Thing is, we love attacking the Hawks defense. They’ve been better, sure, but Butler is too cheap across the industry and is playing for a team playing at the fastest in the NBA, which maximizes his offensive possessions. 

The Heat guard rotation is the biggest question mark. We’re fairly certain Justise Winslow will start at point-guard with how well he’s playing. How can the Heat justify not starting Kendrick Nunn as he’s scoring 22.3 points per game and has gone for 35 FP or more in three straight. The likely move is Tyler Herro to the bench to play alongside Goran Dragic who will continue to run the Heat second unit. Dragic leads the team with a 26.4-percent USG, which will obviously drop some with the return of Butler.

How do we not love Bam Adebayo here? We just saw Joel Embiid absolutely shred the Hawks front-court which is the third straight center to notch at least a double-double against them (Drummond, Vucevic, Embiid). We can’t really trust Kelly Olynyk or Meyers Leonard for DFS, so Adebayo is really the only viable member of the Miami front-court tonight.

 

Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets

Total: 213.5

Spread: DEN -5.5

Pace - DEN 97.3 (30th) -- DAL 105.17 (12th)

DRtg - DEN 100.3 (T-8th) -- DAL 107 (18th)

 

Dallas 

Injuries

Dwight Powell - QUEST

The Mavericks have an impressive offense led by Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis . Both are elite options on this slate considering how well they play off one another in PnR and PnP. Porzingis went for nearly 60 FP and didn’t see a price bump at ALL. 

Jalen Brunson let us down the other day, but still started and played 26 minutes. He’s not a big usage player, but he took north of 10 shots in his first two games this year before the third game. Delon Wright pretty much in the same boat as Brunson, but his minutes have fluctuated unlike Brunson’s have. Seth Curry is a GPP dart who could play 20-to-25 minutes and score us double-figure points. He’s $200 from min salary today.

I absolutely loved how active Maxi Kleber has been in the early going, but that production could come to a halt if Dwight Powell suits up for this one. He logged a full practice on Monday so expectation is he DOES in fact play tonight. Rick Carlisle is a wild card and could limit Powell’s minutes, but let’s wait for an official announcement before we jump to any conclusions. I could get behind Powell’s price tag across the industry if he plays and isn’t limited and if he sits, I’m locking Kleber in at a sub 4K DK price-tag.

 

Denver

Injuries

No injuries of note.

Denver has so many different options that can lead them in scoring a given night. Jamal Murray leads them in scoring at 19.7/game, but they have six players at 10-plus points per game and Paul Millsap right behind them at 9.3. This is a huge pace up spot which makes me love Jamal Murray , despite the fact he’s a jump shooter on the second leg of a back-to-back. Gary Harris has been solid the last two games with 13 and 17 actual points respectively and we know Harris is a good defender and we’ve seen that as he’s notched five steals over three games.

After the two starting guards, there are an abundance of possibilities that could make or break our lineups. Will Barton is the starter, but we’ve seen Mike Malone turn to his bench if Barton isn’t playing well and we’re only three games into the year. Barton has played 27 MPG, while Malik Beasley is at 20.7 and Torrey Craig is playing 19 per. I would rank them Barton, Beasley, Craig.

This could be a Jerami Grant game. The way the Nuggets have monitored Millsap’s minutes already makes me very skeptical that he’ll play a lot on the second leg of this back-to-back, or any back-to-back for that matter. We saw Grant play 31 minutes in the teams second game and he scored 13 actual points while grabbing five boards. He could be an elite value if we find out Millsap is limited. Even if there isn’t anything official, I’m approaching the situation that way. 

It’s understandable if you look the other way when talking about Nikola Jokic , but recency bias can be such a beautiful thing in DFS. Jokic only scored 33 FP in last night’s game but for someone with double-digit assist upside, two assists is a rare thing to see. We’ve already see a triple-double and nearly 70 FP out of him and he’s likely going to be the lowest owned high priced player on the slate. I’ve mentioned it already, but this is a HUGE pace-up spot for Denver and one we should look to take advantage of in GPP’s.



 

Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers

Total: 218

Spread: LAL -11.5

Pace - MEM 108.56 (2nd) -- LAL 98 (29th)

DRtg - MEM 107.7 (22nd) -- LAL 102 (11th)

 

Memphis

Injuries

Ja Morant - PROB

Kyle Anderson - QUEST

The Grizzlies added Ja Morant in the draft and decided they were gonna get out and run on offense. They’re currently second in the league in pace as they head into their fourth game of the year. Morant broke out last game scoring 30 points and dishing out nine assists, but it’s likely he gets the Avery Bradley clamps in this one, clamps not many people enjoy. I’d be OK with a Morant fade here.

With shooting-guard such a weak position, Dillon Brooks makes for a very solid value option. We’ve seen him top 30 minutes in two straight games and he scored a season-high 21 actual points on 9-of-15 shooting last time out. I like the three-point bonus he gets on DK considering he shot 37-percent from three last season but on FD where we have to play two SG’s, he is viable over there as well. If this game blows out there is a case to be made for Grayson Allen and Tyus Jones .

Considering how foul happy Jaren Jackson Jr. can be at times, he’s going to have a TOUGH time keeping his hands off Anthony Davis here. If you listened to today’s podcast, I was high on Brandon Clarke because of this fact. It’s hard to predict fouls, but if there was a time to guess it would cause a problem, a match-up with the Brow would be that time. Clarke has had a prominent role with the front-court as is and is going to play 20-to-25 minutes as long as Jonas Valanciunas is limited. He could potentially reach 30 here Jackson commits early fouls. Valanciunas only needs 20 minutes or so to absolutely smash, but the 20 minute cap can be really frustrating. 

Jae Crowder has been extremely solid over his first three games contributing in basically every facet of the game while playing 30 minutes. He’s a nice play here, but perhaps the most intriguing play on Memphis is Solomon Hill . I know I know, Hill is not a very exciting player as he registered two DNP-CD the first two games of the year, but he played 24 minutes in the third game and put up 24 FP to boot. He’s the stone cold minimum and he’s probably not a guy you’re using unless you’re making multiple lineups and OK with taking a big risk, because he could play 20 minutes or not play at all.
 

Los Angeles

Injuries

Rajon Rondo - OUT

Kyle Kuzma - OUT

The Lakers are getting a HUGE pace up spot here, one we should look to exploit. The only thing we have to worry about is a blowout considering the 11.5-point spread. Memphis is also the fourth most points in the paint this year, which is where LeBron James and Anthony Davis love operating. Both of them could absolutely smash tonight. Both of them will smash, let me be transparent.

The Grizzlies rank 29th against both point-guards and shooting-guards. Quinn Cook has gotten regular rotation minutes plus blowout run, if you want to predict the outcome in this one. Avery Bradley will likely shadow Ja Morant for a majority of this game and could play 30 minutes because of it. He seems OK prioritizing defense right now, but the extra minutes could lead to more peripheral stats and hopefully more offense as well. Danny Green obviously has already blown up once this year and it’s possible that those sort of games happen often considering how frequently defenses are forced to collapse on James and Davis when they’re headed towards the basket.

What should we do with Dwight Howard , though? Howard has looked far superior to JaVale McGee as he notched a double-double while blocking four shots his last time out. Howard is in a similar spot as Danny Green and the perimeter shooting but instead, when defenses collapse on Davis and James, he catches a lob or is right there for a layup. I’m OK paying this price tag on a short slate with limited options.