Hey everyone, Happy Thursday! Not only is it almost the weekend, but it's almost CHRISTMAS! What a great time of the year it is. We only have a two-game slate, so the only content we're going to have is a write up and a couple of optimal lineups as well.

 

Houston Rockets @ Miami Heat

Total: 208.5

HOU -3.5

Houston

Houston comes into this game playing the second leg of a back-to-back after a home win against Washington on Wednesday night. The team actually broke the NBA record for most three-pointers made (26) in a single game, so there is a definite chance they're going to be tired.

As I mentioned, the Rockets took A LOT of three's on Wednesday...55 to be exact and now they have to travel across the country to Florida to take on the Heat. They're currently favorites in this game, but it wouldn't shock me if they showed a little fatigue here. The Rockets are 2-2 in the second leg of a back-to-back this year. 

James Harden is obviously where we're going to start as he's gone for 58-plus fantasy points in four straight games. He would have had his fourth straight game with 60-plus if Washington was able to keep this game competitive in the fourth quarter. Miami has been one of the best team's in the league at defending shooting-guards, but if you ignore someone with a 40.7-percent usage rate on a two-game slate you're a mad man.

Chris Paul has been consistent lately and won't have to deal with Goran Dragic as Dragic will miss the next couple of months now that he's undergone surgery. The Heat are 19th against PG's according to DvP, so it's a plus matchup for CP3. I don't love Clint Capela matching up against Hassan Whiteside and Bam Adebayo if I'm being honest. This might be a game I look elsewhere at center.

P.J. Tucker isn't a spring chicken anymore, but he'll likely be right out there for another 34-40 minutes on Thursday after playing 34 on Wednesday night. He had a double-double, by the way. Other than that, three value options we have are Eric Gordon who's playing big minutes as a starter, Daniel House who's been a consistent producer off of the bench and Gerald Green who is lightning in a bottle at times and we like to ride him when he has a hot hand (12 PTS, 4-of-7 3PT) on Wednesday.

Miami

The Heat are riding a mini two-game hit streak and they've been without their leading scorer from a year ago, Goran Dragic . As I mentioned above, Dragic will miss an extended period of time with a knee injury. We're nearing the return of Dion Waiters as he's returned to full contact practice, but he won't play Thursday night. Justise Winslow is, however, questionable, which would be interesting because he plays a lot of point-guard with Dragic off of the floor.

Josh Richardson has been the Heat's leading scorer in back-to-back games and we should expect that as long as Dion Waiters and Goran Dragic are out. With Dragic and Justise Winslow off of the floor, Richardson has a 29.1-percent USG rate, which is second on the team behind Dwyane Wade who is at 30. If Winslow suits up and is on the floor, Richardson's USG drops slightly to 26.7, but that is still an elite mark. If Winslow is out, Tyler Johnson projects to play somewhere from 25-31 minutes and sits at a nice price point. In three of Dwyane Wade 's last four games, he's gone for 28 or more DK points, which is why his price tag has risen so high. He's worth a dart, especially on a two game lottery ticket as Jon likes to call them.

This is the perfect slate to take a shot on guys like James Johnson , Kelly Olynyk , Derrick Jones Jr.  and/or Bam Adebayo . Over the last five games for Olynyk, he's averaged 27.6 minutes and 30.2 fantasy points per contest. Derrick Jones Jr. has been a nice surprise for Miami giving them 20-plus minutes in five straight games and he's been nice to all those rostering him in DFS as well going for 20-plus fantasy points in each game. Nobody plays Adebayo when Hassan Whiteside is healthy, but Whiteside has played 22 and 23 minutes the last two while Adebayo has played 26 and 25. It's no coincidence. Miami wants to find a taker for Whiteside. Nobody is going to play Johnson -- and for good reason -- but he's worth a flier on a two game slate.

 

Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers

Total: 21.5

LAC -3.5

Dallas

The Mavericks coming into this game losers of three straight games, but they were all competitive. There defense has failed them the last two games as they've allowed 120 and 126 points respectively. The Mavericks have a bunch of guys on their injury report -- per usual -- as Maxi Kleber and Dennis Smith Jr. are both listed as questionable and Dirk Nowitzki and JJ Barea are probable.

Luka Doncic is a budding star and I absolutely love everything about this kids game. He's gone for 49-plus fantasy points in three of his last four games flat out stuff box scores. If you look into the future, his last five game averages are what I suspect he'll be doing over seasons, not just games. Over those five, he's averaging 19 points, 8.4 assists, 7.6 rebounds and one steal per. This is a rookie, by the way. If Dennis Smith Jr. plays and isn't limited, I'd have some interest in him as well as he's a staple in this offense nothcing a 24.9-percent USG rate on the year.

I'm done chasing Jalen Brunson even if Smith Jr. sits, he just doesn't do enough. I'd rather watch JJ Barea play 20 minutes and actually shoot and rebound and be involved than play Brunson playing 25-30 minutes and just standing around doing nothing. Wesley Matthews is someone I'm only playing if DSJ is out as well.

Harrison Barnes was super low owned on Tuesday night and went for 30 actual points which he's capable of doing. I really want to play Barnes if Smith Jr. is out, but if he plays, we don't need to force Barnes because his USG rate takes a hit with Smith on the floor as well as his peripheral stats. If Maxi Kleber were to sit, there is a path to Dwight Powell seeing 20 minutes and he's a guy that can do A LOT in 20 minutes. The 1.06 FP/min he averages is third on the Mavs behind Barea and Doncic. DeAndre Jordan is in a great spot in his return to the Clippers. The Clippers don't defend centers well and I expect Jordan to be EVERYWHERE on the glass in this one. Just like he was the first time they met when he went for 23 rebounds and 53 FP.

Los Angeles

The Clippers come into this game reeling having lost four straight games and six of their last seven overall. Lou Williams has a chance at returning from his four game absence in this one, but that's the only relevant injury news for the Clips.

Dallas is very bad at defending point-guards ranking 24th and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a career-high 24-point game. He's starting over Pat Beverley and if he's playing well, we've seen Doc Rivers use him for 30-plus minutes per game. The thing is, Beverley has played 30 minutes in back-to-back games and has gone up over 26 in three straight, so take that for it's worth.

Putting ourselves through the torture that is rostering Avery Bradley is something I'm personally going to pass on for this slate. And probably future slates as well. Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari are the safest of the bunch as they play 35-plus minutes on a nightly basis and put up the most consistent numbers. Montrezl Harrell is back over 26 minutes in back-to-back games and he's always someone we enjoy playing in tournaments because of his 23.4-percent USG and 1.21 FP/min.

The centers in LA are no fun, but I guess we can consider them because it's a two-game slate. Boban only played one minute in the first meeting, but he generally does see the floor when the other team has a traditional center. Thing is, Jordan is probably too athletic for him, so we will see 20 minutes of Marcin Gortat before Doc Rivers turns it over to Montrezl Harrell .