*****FD GPP Example #2 is my min salary punt lineup*****

 

*UPDATE as of 1:30 PM EST* 

- Andre Drummond (illness) is now PROBABLE

- Ben Simmons (back) now DOUBTFUL

*UPDATE as of 5:20 PM EST*

- Jamal Murray (leg) NOT on injury report for today's game.

 

Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons

Total: 218.5

Philadelphia -2.5

 

I’m actually surprised we were given a total for this game as I’m writing this (10:00 AM EST) seeing how both Andre Drummond and Ben Simmons are both questionable for their respective teams. It wouldn’t be right if I didn’t give you a breakdown on how I view each team with and without their star players.

Philadelphia

With Simmons

If Simmons is active here, things are very clear. They don’t have has as many options because three guys - Simmons, Joel Embiid , J.J. Redick -- suck up all of the team’s usage. They’d all be very good plays here as they all have strong individual matchups. Dario Saric and Rob Covington are darts at best because they haven’t exactly had great starts to their respective seasons.

Without Simmons

This is where things get interesting. When Simmons hasn’t been on the floor this season, Joel Embiid and J.J. Redick still suck up all of the usage, both up over 30-percent, but as we saw last game, other players greatly benefit from his absence as well.

Instead of an uptick in minutes for Markelle Fultz , we saw T.J. McConnell be the guy Brett Brown turned to. Brown is clearly trying to always keep a floor general on the court, which makes sense why they went McConnell over Fultz. He’s significantly cheaper than Fultz on both DK and FD as well. I'm fine with both, but the savings going down to McConnell is very nice.

Dario Saric is someone I’d consider as almost an elite play without Simmons. He only has a usage rate just under 20-percent with Simmons off of the floor, but as you saw last game, the rebounds Simmons racks up on a nightly basis has to go somewhere and they fell to Saric as he racked up his second straight game with nine or more rebounds.

Landry Shamet is the last option I’ll just throw out there. He’s played north of 20 minutes in back-to-back game and can really get it going from beyond the three-point line. It’s only a three-game slate, so everyone is really in play here.

Detroit Pistons

With Drummond

The Pistons starting five plus Ish Smith are the only viable options if Drummond does suit up, but things get crazier if he doesn’t.

Without Drummond

If Drummond sits, Blake Griffin ’s numbers don’t even make sense. He not only has a 35.7-percent usage rate, but he’s averaging north of two fantasy points per minutes. He’s easily one of the top options, if not the top option considering price point.

After Griffin, the top value play -- maybe on the slate -- is Zaza Pachulia . He filled in for Drummond last game after he left and he grabbed eight rebounds in his stead. That’s his second straight game with seven-plus rebounds too, so it’s hard to ignore his sub-4K price tag across the industry.

When talking about Detroit point-guards, Reggie Jackson has more upside, but Ish Smith has been equally as good this season. If Smith can continue shooting the basketball well, we’ve seen him stuff boxscores in the past so the additional of the points is definitely a bonus.

Reggie Bullock is very safe on a night-to-night basis and that doesn’t change whether Drummond is in or out. He definitely does get a slight boost with Drummond out, however as he has a 25.9-percent usage with the big center off of the floor.
 

Los Angeles Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans

Total: 238.5

New Orleans -6.5

Clippers

This game features the highest total Vegas has put out that I’ve personally ever seen, so everyone is in play. It’s hard to ignore Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari as the primary Clippers seeing how they’re both averaging over 20 points per game thus far. Harris is more expensive, but as Jon pointed out on today’s podcast, the Pelicans did not defend wings well last season and didn’t exactly update their roster to improve that fact.

Just like the Clippers last contest, it feels more like a spot for Montrezl Harrell than it does for Boban Marjanovic . This is going to be a track meet and Boban simply can’t stay on the floor in contests like those. He had a double-double in just 24 minutes last time out. That’s the type of upside he provides.

This is going to be the Lou Williams game, right? He went 3-for-16 his last time out and hasn’t been better than 4-for-10 in the three games he’s played, but he’s better than this as we’ve seen year in and year out. He’s my favorite guard to play on the Clippers tonight, but right behind him is the rookie Shai Gilgeous-Alexander . He’s outpaced Pat Beverley in two of the three games this year and has simply flashed more fantasy appeal.

New Orleans

I will not fade Anthony Davis . I will not fade Anthony Davis . I will not fade Anthony Davis . Moving right along…..

What has gotten into Nikola Mirotic ? He’s been incredible to begin the year scoring 30-plus points in both games while grabbing nine-plus rebounds. He’s going to be likely matched up with Tobias Harris and Montrezl Harrell here. Harris had a mediocre 110 DRtG last season while Harrell’s was just as bad at 109.

E'Twaun Moore is similar to Reggie Bullock who we talk about earlier in that he doesn’t have amazing upside, but he’s very solid nonetheless. As long as this game stays close he should have no issue playing upwards of 30 minutes and getting a lot of open shot attempts as the defense will be worried about literally all four of the other Pelicans starters.

Elfrid Payton is averaging a near triple-double through two games and I believe that type of production can stick, especially with the type of players he’s passing the ball to and what they do for him in terms of finding open spots on the floor to take shots for himself. Jrue Holiday is fine as well, as he has tremendous upside, he’s simply taken a back seat to the Nikola Mirotic show thus far.
 

Sacramento Kings @ Denver Nuggets

Total: 228.5

DEN -11

Sacramento

It’s amazing when you let your best players go and allow them to play freely, isn’t it? De’Aaron Fox has been fantastic at the start of the year scoring 18-plus actual points and six-plus assists in each of the first three games this year. He’s played 38 minutes in both games the Kings weren’t blown out in, so we should expect something similar as long as this game stays close.

Buddy Hield and Willie Cauley-Stein both have extremely tough matchups, but since we only have three games on the slate they’re not two players we should completely throw away. Of all of the Kings starters, Hield leads the group with a 25.9-percent usage rate. If you don’t like Hield, how about Iman Shumpert ? Shumpert put forth an incredible fantasy performance this past sunday scoring 46.75 DK points. If he is once again in the starting lineup, this will be really good chalk we should consider eating.

The Marvin Bagley vs. Nemanja Bjelica is an interesting debate for me as well. Bjelica is going to provide us with a ton of usage or upside for that matter, but in the two games he wasn’t in foul trouble the entire time, he produced really solid numbers. Bagley on the other hand is an elite talent that has an endless ceiling. If he gets hot, the Kings will be forced to use him thus plopping Bjelica on the bench. On a three-game slate we need to take some risks and this is a way to do so.

Denver

Denver may be the team providing us with the most value on this entire slate depending on if Jamal Murray suits up or not. If he doesn’t, Monte Morris is really the only point-guard on Denver’s roster thus forcing him into a big role in this one. With Murray off of the floor, Morris has an extremely respectable 21.8-percent usage rate and is almost averaging a full fantasy point per minute as well.

Gary Harris is the biggest beneficiary, however, as he’s notching a usage rate up over 30-percent when Murray’s been off the court. At times we could see Buddy Hield trying to guard Harris which doesn’t bode well for the Kings as Hield notched a 111 defensive rating last season. Not good.

Oh yeah, Nikola Jokic is on this team, how could I forget? We’ve already seen the upside in the second game of the year when he dropped 80 fantasy points and had a triple-double and that’s the type of upside he gives us on a nightly basis. He’ll likely see an uptick in assists and points if Murray doesn’t play, which obviously boosts him up even more. If you’re not playing Anthony Davis for some reason, Jokic is the top pivot off of him in my opinion.

With Will Barton out, Torrey Craig will continue to start at small-forward, but Juancho Hernangomez is the guy I want. On a per-36 bases, Hernangomez averages over 12 points and nearly eight rebounds per game, while also chipping in with at least one steal, assist and block per game. He just simply has more upside than Craig.