Chalk Stack(s)

Colorado Rockies vs. Jeff Samardzija

Now this stack will probably only be really chalky from one aspect and that’s the Rockies side as they take on Jeff Samardzija , but anyone pitching at Coors is risky, so Kyle Freeland isn’t out of the woodworks either. In seven starts this year, Samardzija has racked up a 6.23 ERA and his 6.07 xFIP tells us that he hasn’t been unlucky either. After posting an 8.88 K/9 last year that mark has dipped all the way down to 6.49 this season. The walks are wayyyyyyy up as well. After notching a very respectable 3.8-percent BB-rate last season, that number has skyrocketed to 14.4-percent. Everything that could go wrong for Samardzija this season has.

The Rockies are actually poor offensively against right-handed pitching, but we can’t overlook how bad Samardzija has been this season. Charlie Blackmon is where I want to start despite the fact that he’s played better on the road (.409 wOBA) than at home (.336 wOBA). Blackmon has had a lot of success against right-handed pitching on the year. He’s making an insane amount of hard contact at 37-percent and he also has a .925 OPS and .393 wOBA against them. Lefties have given Samardzija a problem all year as they’re hitting .288 against him with a .552 SLG and .405 wOBA. Even though we love the lefties here, Nolan Arenado will be lower owned than Blackmon in this spot for sure. He has a very long, successful history against Samardzija as he’s gone 13-for-32 (.406 AVG) with six RBI and a .429 wOBA.

As I’ve mentioned a couple times already, the lefties are the plays here. Carlos González , who has back-to-back multiple hit games, has taken Samardzija deep in the past and has hit all five of his homers vs. RHP this season. David Dahl is hitting .328 with two homers and a .387 wOBA against right-handers and Gerardo Parra is hitting a robust 13-for-33 (.394) with two bombs off of the Giants starter. Ian Desmond is also in play, but more as a secondary option. He’s 10-for-26 off of Samardzija (.385) and has taken him deep twice as well. The only problem with him is that Samardzija has held RHH under a .300 wOBA.

Primary Option(s): Charlie Blackmon , Nolan Arenado , David Dahl , Gerardo Parra , Carlos González

Secondary Option(s): Ian Desmond

 

Boston Red Sox vs. Marco Estrada

This one could be really ugly really fast. After giving up 31 homers last year Estrada has already given up 12 in 2018. No team in baseball has hit more homers against right-handed pitching than the Boston Red Sox. Saddle up, kiddo’s. Not only has Estrada struggled in the home run department, but righties are hitting .302 against him. He has allowed a 35.9-percent hard hit rate and a 55.7-percent fly ball rate to RHH, which the Red Sox primarily have in their lineup. He hasn’t actually been good against left-handed hitters either allowing a .361 wOBA, so let’s not ignore them here.

When we’re talking about Boston, we immediately look to Mookie Betts and J.D. Martínez . Betts has missed a couple of games with a side injury but it looks like he will return for Tuesday’s action. If he does, he’s obviously an elite play despite the fact that he’s $6,000 on DraftKings. Betts is 1st in AVG and H, 2nd in HR and 4th in SB amongst the entire league. He has a .492 wOBA off of RHP this year and is arguably the top play of the day. If you want some savings for an equally good play, I already mentioned J.D. Martínez up top. Martinez has taken Estrada deep in the past and has gone deep five times over his last 10 games. He’s hitting .344 at home and .320 versus righty pitchers, so he’s essentially matchup proof.

Remember up top when I said don’t forget the lefties? Well that’s because Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland play for the Sox. Benintendi is coming into this contest white hot posting a slash line of .382/.477/.882 with four homers and 15 RBI over a 10-game span. Benintendi has had plenty of opportunities against Estrada in the past and has gone 6-for-18 (.333 AVG). Moreland has been on fire too posting an OPS of 1.088 over his last 10 games. Maybe thanking Boston for moving on from Hanley Ramírez so he can play everyday? But in any case, Moreland is a nightmare for RHP. He’s hitting .333 against them with an OPS of 1.091, isolated power (ISO) of .356 and a wOBA of .454 to boot. It’s extremely hard to ignore all of those numbers.

All four of the guys I mentioned above are expensive and it’ll be hard for us to construct a roster with all four. That means when building our stacks we’re going to have to find some cheap guys on the Sox as well. Well good thing Dustin Pedroia has only been back for two games. Boston’s captain has reached base in both contests but has yet to secure his first hit. Pedroia has owned Estrada in the past going 14-for-31 against him, so Pedey could be a sneaky part of this stack. How about some love for Sandy León as well? Leon is the backup, sure, but he’s been hitting very well of late. Over his last 10 games Leon is hitting .345 with a .907 OPS. He’s only 2.9K on DK and should be considered an excellent fourth member of a Red Sox stack if he draws a start.

Primary Option(s): Mookie Betts , J.D. Martínez , Mitch Moreland , Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Option(s): Dustin Pedroia , Sandy León

 

Contrarian Stack(s)

Washington Nationals vs. Dylan Bundy

So I understand that Bundy is coming off an excellent game in which he went the distance and struck out 14, but there are some games you watch him pitch and wonder will the real Dylan Bundy please stand up? In four of his last six starts, Bundy has allowed two or more homers and four or more earned runs. That’s relevant because the Nationals rank sixth in homers and ninth in runs scored against right-handed pitching on the year. The 14 homers he’s allowed on the year has him slotted in second behind Homer Bailey for the league lead. Bundy’s allowing a ton of hard contact as well as lefties have a 33.3-percent mark and right-handers have posted a mark of 35.4-percent. Lefties are what have really hurt him overall. Righties have 10 homers, but the LHH are slashing .291/.369/.491 against Bundy on the year.

As I mentioned up above, the lefties are what have giving Bundy fits this year, so why don’t we start with Bryce Harper . Harper has homered three times over his last seven games and has three multi-hit outings over that span as well. He’s hit 12 of his 16 homers off of right-handed pitching as well and has a .410 wOBA. Sticking with the left-handed theme, we’ll look at Matt Adams . Adams has hits in four of his last five games including two homers while driving in five runs. He’s been a blessing for the Nationals who’ve been without Ryan Zimmerman for a while now. Adams primarily plays against just right-handers, which is why he has 11 of his 12 bombs against RHP and is hitting .292 with a .457 wOBA against them. Both Harper and Adams are my top two plays from the Nationals.

Moving on to my next few additions to the stack is Juan Soto and Trea Turner . Soto is another lefty bat we get to use against Bundy. The 19-year old Soto has begun his Major League career hitting .320 with a .417 wOBA. He has light-tower power and that can’t be glossed over facing off against someone ranked second in HR allowed right now. Turner is a righty and Bundy has been good against righties outside of the power department, but Turner thrives against RHP himself. He’s currently riding a nine-game hitting streak in which he has five extra-base hits and seven RBI. Turner also has 14 stolen bases and it’s easier to run on a RHP, obviously.

Mark Reynolds and Anthony Rendón will be two of the lower-owned Nationals in their lineup but we shouldn’t just overlook them. Rendon has gone deep off Bundy once in their three meetings and has a .356 wOBA vs. RHP on the year. Reynolds, in limited time at the Major League level, has hit a robust .417 with four home runs and a ridiculous .717 wOBA off of righties. They’re both secondary plays, but I’d understand why one would consider one or both elite as well.

Primary Option(s): Bryce Harper , Matt Adams , Trea Turner , Juan Soto

Secondary Option(s): Mark Reynolds , Anthony Rendón