Chalk Stack(s)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Lucas Giolito
The Orioles offense has to do SOMETHING against these bad White Sox pitchers, right? The Orioles have had some of the highest implied run totals of the past two slates and have come up empty both games. They get another crack at it here against another subpar pitcher in Lucas Giolito .
Giolito doesn’t have horrible numbers in terms of averages, but the peripheral’s are bad. He’s shown horrendous control with a capital horrendous, walking 22 lefties in 22.2 innings, leading to a .418 OBP. Lefty bats also have a .387 wOBA against him on the year, compared to a respectable .308 mark against righties. The good thing for Giolito is that the O’s lineup is littered with RHH. The bad thing is that the 6.14 xFIP he has against RHH tells us that those numbers that are actually decent are bound to plummet.
The Orioles stack has to begin with Manny Machado . Machado is top five in just about every major statistical category there is and has as much upside as anybody in the game. Following Machado, is Jonathan Schoop and Adam Jones . Jones has been hot and was hitting over .300 in his last 10 games before the goose egg he laid on Wednesday. Schoop has been slotted in the four hole and just last year we saw him post an .805 OPS against RHP and make the All-Star team. That’s the real Jonathan Schoop .
Mark Trumbo and Trey Mancini are two very intriguing options here. Trumbo sat out Wednesday due to a knee injury, but is only considered day-to-day. Trumbo is currently riding a five-game hitting streak and in his most recent outing went 4-for-4, raising his season average to .308. Mancini continues to lead off for the O’s so the fact that his at-bats are being maximized and his run scoring potential is sky high because of Manny Machado ’s ability to drive him makes him viable.
I will just throw out Chance Sisco and Chris Davis ’ names because Giolito struggles so mightily versus lefties and those are really the only two *viable* options Baltimore has.
Primary Option(s): Manny Machado , Jonathan Schoop , Mark Trumbo , Adam Jones
Secondary Option(s): Trey Mancini , Chance Sisco , Chris Davis
Alternative Stack(s)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Marco Estrada
Currently, Marco Estrada has given up the seventh most home runs in baseball. Estrada has grown quite familiar with the homer as he’s allowed 23 or more for four straight seasons and is well on his way to making it five straight. Not only is it bad news that he’s allowing so many big fly’s, but the Angels rank fourth in the Major League’s in hitting homers against right-handed pitchers with 49 as a team. He’s averaging 2.20 HHR/9 versus RHH and 1.64 against LHH.
You know what this means, right? Mike Trout , y’all. Estrada has been worse against righties this year allowing a .288/.319/.564 slash and a .372 wOBA. Trout has actually been slumping over his last 10 games, but still has an OPS of 1.041 against RHP on the year. If we’re talking about power, the next two Angels that automatically come to mind are Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton . Upton has had a big month of May blasting seven homers and posting a .924 OPS and .389 wOBA while Ohtani is slugging .701 off of RHP and has all six homers and 17 RBI off of them as well. All three guys are elite plays and are expensive as hell but if you pair them with a team like the Orioles, you can afford them.
Some other guys that are interesting, but profile more as secondary options are Zack Cozart , Luis Valbuena and Andrelton Simmons . Valbuena has a nice 44.8-percent flyball rate versus right-handed pitchers on the year which correlates well with Estrada. We saw Cozart break out last year, but has yet to find the same kind of success. One thing to note, however, is that Cozart is hitting .319 with a .956 OPS on the road this season compared to .149 and .510 numbers at home. Simmons has slowed down after his fantastic start, but he’s still hitting .325 on the year.
Primary Play(s): Mike Trout , Justin Upton , Shohei Ohtani
Secondary Play(s): Zack Cozart , Luis Valbuena , Andrelton Simmon