As you head into what for many of you will be the first round of your league’s fantasy playoffs you have to eliminate as much doubt from your fantasy lineup as possible. As we’ve discussed throughout the season there are many NFL backfields that can’t be trusted when it comes to fantasy, but sometimes circumstances will force a team to be a bit more predictable in the way they distribute carries amongst their RBs.

For instance, last week we wrote about the Rams’ backfield and how erratic Sean McVay can be when it comes to using his RBs. Cam Akers has now had two straight productive weeks and depending on how serious Darrell Henderson’s knee injury is, McVay may not have a choice but to lean on Akers again this week. 

Now, more than ever, you need to be glued to NFL news as injuries and COVID related pauses and delays can wreak havoc to your starting lineup. Christian McCaffrey is expected to make his return this week, but the Panthers had to place eight players on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Monday. The NFL has done a good job with juggling the schedule in order to deal with the COVID related outbreaks that have plagued the league of late but it’s still a situation that you need to monitor.

Fantasy Alarm will keep you up to date on all the latest breaking fantasy football related news as it happens. In the meantime, the following analysis provides a closer look at a few of the NFL backfields that deserve your attention.  We hope that it helps you better manage your fantasy football team(s). Good luck this week!

Atlanta Falcons

It seems that the Falcons may have squeezed as much top line fantasy production as they could out of Todd Gurley this season. He averaged just under 18 carries per game in his first nine games of the season and although his 3.67 YPC average isn’t very impressive, his nine TDs in those games certainly are. Gurley’s knee has been acting up of late and in his last two games he’s averaged just 8 carries per game and 2.63 YPC. While Gurley’s knee has been barking, he was able to play in Week 13 and when Gurley plays and is limited, the Falcons backfield turns into an ugly unusable three headed monster. All season long we were valuing Brian Hill as Gurley’s handcuff based on former Falcons head coach Dan Quinn telling the media that Hill had earned the role. Quinn is gone and Ito Smith has been effective and grabbing a larger role in the Falcons offense of late. He’s averaging 5.05 YPC in his last two games. At this point you can’t start Gurley, Hill or Smith in the first round of your fantasy playoffs.

Chicago Bears

On the other hand, David Montgomery , is a RB who is getting hot at exactly the right time. When we wrote about Montgomery in our column prior to Week 8, he was RB27 on the season and averaging 13 fantasy points per game (FPPG). Since then in his last four games he’s averaging 4.67 YPC, scored three TDs and averaging 3.5 catches per game. In his last three games he’s RB1 overall based on FPPG per Fantasy Football Today. He should keep rolling as two of his next three opponents (Texans and Jaguars) are in the top five in fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Buffalo Bills

Changes in distribution of workload within a given backfield can sometimes happen unexpectedly based on in game action.  In the five games between Week 7 and 12 Zack Moss began to carve out a larger role in the Bills’ offense. He played an average of just under 54% of the Bills’ offensive snaps, compared to Devin Singletary ’s 47%. He also averaged more carries per game (9.2 vs. 7.8) and had more total red zone carries (18 vs. 16) than Singletary. However in Week 13, Moss was benched after a first quarter fumble and ended up playing just 15% of the Bills’ offensive snaps, while Singletary played 85%. Unless you play in a deep league, you probably weren’t using either Bills RB on a regular basis, but if desperation has forced you to use Moss out of the flex spot this season his snap rate and usage will probably rebound. However, he’s got a very tough matchup against the Steelers so you might want to find a better option.

New York Jets

Jets RB Ty Johnson may just be that better option. Frank Gore suffered a concussion in Week 13 and although he hasn’t officially been ruled out as this article is being written, there’s a good chance he’ll be on the sidelines in Week 14. Johnson carved up the Raiders defense for 104 rushing yards on 22 carries (4.73 YPC) and added a rushing TD. He’s got a favorable matchup against the Seahawks who had trouble stopping the run in Week 13 and gave up 135 yards on the ground to Giants RB Wayne Gallman . It’s not often that you can pick up a bell cow back off of the waiver wire in the first week of fantasy playoff season. Take advantage of it. 

Detroit Lions

Frank Gore could possibly be sidelined in Week 14, but Adrian Peterson , another elder statesman NFL RB, might have an opportunity to operate as the Lions’ lead back against a Packers team that has given up the third most FPPG to the position. You never like to see someone lose their job, but with the firing of former head coach Matt Patricia, Lions players collectively feel as if a tremendous weight has been lifted from their shoulders and they showed it in their big win against the Bears in Week 13. They probably won’t beat the Packers this week but the game might be competitive for a while. If D’Andre Swift (concussion) and Kerryon Johnson (knee), are sidelined Peterson could be in line for a productive game. TDs are tough to predict but Peterson has scored two in two straight games. He’s also tied for ninth in the NFL with 27 red zone carries. Peterson loves playing against the Packers. In 20 career games against the Pack he has a 5.14 YPC average and has scored a total of 17 TDs.

AFC EAST
 Buffalo BillsMiami DolphinsNew England PatriotsNew York Jets
Primary RBDevin SingletaryMyles GaskinDamien HarrisFrank Gore
Change of Pace DeAndre Washington/Patrick Laird
Sony Michel
Ty Johnson/Josh Adams
3rd Down Malcolm Perry (missed Week 13, chest)James White 
HandcuffZack MossSalvon AhmedSony MichelTy Johnson
Injured 
Matt Breida is on the reserve/COVID-19 list
Rex BurkheadLa'Mical Perine was placed on the IR (ankle)
Notes
 
Salvon Ahmed has been out since Wk 12 (shoulder). DeAndre Washington (hamstring) was out Wk 13.
 
Watch Frank Gore's progress (concussion) for Wk 14
AFC SOUTH
 Indianapolis ColtsJacksonville JaguarsHouston TexansTennessee Titans
Primary RBJonathan TaylorJames RobinsonDavid JohnsonDerrick Henry
Change of PaceJordan Wilkins/Nyheim HinesDare Ogunbowale/Devine OzigboDuke Johnson/C.J. ProsiseJeremy McNichols/D'Onta Foreman
3rd DownNyheim HinesDare OgunbowaleDuke Johnson 
Handcuff Devine OzigboDuke JohnsonJeremy McNichols
InjuredMarlon MackChris Thompson/Ryquell Armstead  
Notes
Very difficult to predict who the lead back will be on a weekly basis.
 
Prosise was out Week 13 due to a non COVID-19 related illness
 
AFC NORTH
 Baltimore RavensCincinnati BengalsCleveland BrownsPittsburgh Steelers
Primary RBJ.K. DobbinsGiovani BernardNick Chubb/Kareem HuntJames Conner
Change of PaceGus Edwards/Mark Ingram/Justice HillSamaje Perine/Trayveon Williams Benny Snell/Anthony McFarland
3rd Down   Jaylen Samuels
HandcuffMark Ingram/Gus EdwardsSamaje PerineNick Chubb/Kareem Hunt 
Injured Joe Mixon (foot) has been out since Week 7 and was placed on the IR. He is eligible to return Week 14  
Notes
 
 
 
Conner is on the Injured Reserve/COVID-19 list. He is eligible to be reinstated. Snell will be the lead back if Conner is not active for Wk 14.
AFC WEST
 Denver BroncosKansas City ChiefsLas Vegas RaidersLos Angeles Chargers
Primary RBMelvin Gordon/Phillip LindsayClyde Edwards - HelaireJosh JacobsAustin Ekeler
Change of PaceRoyce FreemanLe'Veon BellDevontae Booker/Jalen Richard/Theo RiddickKalen Ballage/Joshua Kelley
3rd Down Darrel Williams Joshua Kelley/Gabe Nabers/Troymaine Pope
Handcuff Le'Veon BellDevontae BookerKalen Ballage
Injured   Justin Jackson on IR
Notes
 
Edwards - Helaire was out Week 13 due to a non COVID related illness
Josh Jacobs missed Wk 13 & unlikely to play in Wk 14. Watch his progress. Booker would be the lead back with Jacobs out
Troymaine Pope (neck) was inactive Week 13
NFC EAST
 Dallas CowboysNew York GiantsPhiladelphia EaglesWashington Football Team
Primary RBEzekiel ElliottWayne GallmanMiles SandersAntonio Gibson
Change of PaceTony PollardAlfred MorrisCorey Clement/Boston Scott/Jordan HowardPeyton Barber
3rd Down Dion Lewis
Boston Scott
 J.D. McKissic
HandcuffTony PollardAlfred MorrisBoston ScottJ.D. McKissic / Peyton Barber
Injured Saquon Barkley & Devonta Freeman  
Notes
 
 
 
Watch Antonio Gibson's progress for Week 14 (toe)
NFC SOUTH
 Atlanta FalconsCarolina PanthersNew Orleans SaintsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Primary RBTodd GurleyMike DavisAlvin KamaraRonald Jones
Change of PaceBrian Hill/Ito SmithRodney SmithLatavius MurrayLeonard Fournette
3rd Down    
HandcuffIto SmithRodney Smith/Trenton CannonLatavius MurrayLeonard Fournette
Injured Reggie Bonnafon  
Notes
 
Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) is expected to return in Week 14.
 
Ke'Shawn Vaughn has been a healthy scratch since Week 9.
NFC NORTH
 Chicago BearsDetroit LionsGreen Bay PackersMinnesota Vikings
Primary RBDavid MontgomeryD'Andre SwiftAaron JonesDalvin Cook
Change of PaceRyan Nall/Cordarrelle PattersonAdrian Peterson/Kerryon JohnsonJamaal Williams/Tayvon AustinAlexander Mattison
3rd Down  Jamaal Williams 
Handcuff
Cordarrelle Patterson
Adrian Peterson/Kerryon JohnsonJamaal WilliamsAlexander Mattison
InjuredTarik Cohen A.J. Dillon COVID IR 
Notes
 
D'Andre Swift (concussion) has been out since Week 11. Watch Kerryon Johnson's progress (knee) for Week 14.
Tyler Ervin (Ribs) was placed on the IR
Mattison missed Wk 13 (appendectomy). If he misses Wk 14 Ameer Abdullah and Mike Boone would back up Cook.
NFC WEST
 Arizona CardinalsLos Angeles RamsSan Francisco 49ersSeattle Seahawks
Primary RBKenyan DrakeCam AkersRaheem MostertChris Carson
Change of PaceChase EdmondsDarrell Henderson/Malcolm BrownJeff Wilson/Kyle Juszczyk/Tevin ColemanCarlos Hyde
3rd Down  Jerick McKinnonDeeJay Dallas
HandcuffChase EdmondsDarrell Henderson Carlos Hyde
Injured  Jamycal HastyRashaad Penny/Bo Scarbrough
Notes
 
 
Jerick McKinnon did not log a carry or receive a target in Week 13
Travis Homer (wrist/thumb/knee) hasn't played since Week 11.