With eight of FantasyPros’ top 15 preseason consensus RBs (by ADP) missing at least one game so far this season it should come as no surprise when teams were forced to turn to players that had been buried on their depth charts like Salvon Ahmed, Wayne Gallman , and Kalen Ballage to lead their backfields in Week 10. Most of us fantasy football players select RBs in the early rounds of our preseason drafts even though we know that there will be a good chance that we’ll be scrambling to find replacements for many of those players at some point of the fantasy football season. Drafting RBs early remains a sound strategy, but unless we have enough RB depth on our fantasy rosters it won’t protect us from the inevitable pitfalls that we all must face during the course of a fantasy football season.
As we’ve discussed in previous columns it simply isn’t easy managing our fantasy RBs. Teams like the Ravens, Rams and Colts continue to confound us by switching gears from week to week, seemingly picking a name out of a hat in order to determine who the lead back of the week is going to be. There are many forces at work when it comes to RB usage that we just aren’t privy to. Who knew that Colts RB Nyheim Hines would come out with fire in his eyes last week, prompting RB coach Tom Rathman to convince head coach Frank Reich to “ride it”? We’ve got some question marks to contend with this week including if Chris Carson will finally suit up for the Seahawks in Week 11.
As always, Fantasy Alarm will keep you up to date on all the latest breaking fantasy football related news as it happens. In the meantime, the following analysis provides a closer look at a few of the NFL backfields that deserve your attention. We hope that it helps you better manage your fantasy football team(s) and we hope that your fantasy RBs come out of the gate with fire in their eyes this week.
Cleveland Browns
Last week we talked about how Kareem Hunt seems to play better with Nick Chubb in the lineup and as if on cue, both RBs scored double digit fantasy points in PPR scoring formats in Week 10. Weather conditions made it conducive to run the ball more and each RB had 19 carries. As had been the norm before Chubb missed time due to his injury, Hunt was the busier back in the Browns passing game. Look for both Chubb and Hunt to feed off of each other as they remain fantasy relevant the rest of the season.
Miami Dolphins
As we alluded to in our opening, rookie RB Salvon Ahmed has basically come out of nowhere to lead the Dolphins backfield while Myles Gaskin (sprained MCL) and Matt Breida (hamstring) recover from their injuries. He played 46% of the Dolphins’ offensive snaps in Week 9 and averaged 5.43 YPC. The Dolphins must have liked what they saw because in Week 10 he was given 21 carries, and he rushed for 85 yards and scored his first career TD. With Gaskin waiting in the wings and Ahmed holding his own, the Dolphins concluded that Jordan Howard was expendable and waived him following Week 10’s action. With Gaskin being eligible to come off of the IR in Week 12, Ahmed’s got another week to lead the Dolphins backfield, and he has a fairly good matchup against the Broncos in Week 11. They’ve given up the 10th most rushing yards to RBs this season at a clip of 4.24 YPC. As we’ve mentioned in a past column, with rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa under center the Dolphins will likely look to run the ball a bit more. They ran the ball just over 56% of the time in Week 10, which is significantly higher than their 46.17% season average. Even when Gaskin is reinstated there should be enough carries to go around so that Ahmed will still have a role in the Dolphins’ offense.
New England Patriots
Bill Belicheck has always been a proactive type of coach who adjusts his game plan in order to exploit his opponents’ weaknesses while taking advantage of his own teams’ strengths. Based on the fact that the Patriots lead the NFL in rushing play percentage, it’s apparent that Belicheck believes that his running game gives him the best chance to win on a weekly basis. WR Jakobi Meyers has been coming on of late and Damiere Byrd has shown some flashes suggesting that he could eventually develop some fantasy relevance, but the Patriots have become a run first team. Overall, the Patriots have run the ball 52.35% of the time, compared to just 40.64% of the time last season. Week 10 weather conditions made it more difficult to throw the ball and the Pats responded by running the ball 67.24% of the time against the Ravens. Veteran fantasy football managers know that figuring out which Patriots RB to start on a weekly basis is never easy, and just when they think they’ve figured it out, Belicheck pulls the rug from under them. Over the past three weeks Damien Harris has played just over 40% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps and averaged 98 rushing yards per game and 5.65 yards per carry. According to Fantasy Football Today he’s fantasy football’s RB25 in PPR scoring formats with 11.8 fantasy points per game (FPPG). Rex Burkhead , who we’ve referenced in previous columns, has been coming on of late. Over the past three weeks he’s played just over 41% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps and scored 14.1 FPPG making him fantasy football’s RB14 during that time period. With the usually reliable James White ’s fantasy production virtually non-existent over the past few weeks, you’d think you’d be safe with starting either Harris or Burkhead on a weekly basis. However, Sony Michel is eligible to come off of the IR and he’s likely to have a role on this team.
New York Giants
As the Giants head into their Week 11 bye they finally seem to be gathering some modest momentum. Their offensive line is starting to play a bit better which in turn has helped both QB Daniel Jones and the Giants’ running game. Devonta Freeman , who was signed in order to replace Saquon Barkley , hit the IR and will miss at least three weeks. Wayne Gallman has been stepping up of late and has taken over as the Giants’ lead back, scoring at least one TD (five to be exact) over his last four games. Dion Lewis has also been chipping in with his usual couple of catches out of the backfield, but veteran RB Alfred Morris has also been a pleasant surprise, playing the change of pace role over the past three weeks. He’s carried the ball 25 times, averaging 5.2 YPC. Look for Gallman to continue to play the majority of snaps out of the backfield. He’s bought into head coach Joe Judge’s system who loves Gallman’s “toughness”. By Gallman’s own admission he’s playing with more “aggression” which has helped his game immensely. He’s got a good matchup against the Bengals who’ve given up the sixth most rushing yards to RBs in Week 12.
Pittsburgh Steelers
With a 9-0 win-loss record the Steelers are having themselves a potentially “Super” season, however the same cannot be said for their running game, and James Conner in particular. Over his last three games Conner has a 2.84 YPC average and is fantasy football’s RB41 in PPR scoring formats. As a team the Steelers have the ninth fewest rushing yards per game average in the NFL this season and haven’t rushed for more than 48 yards in three straight games. Conner has faced sub-par run defenses (Cowboys and Bengals) in two of his last three games and has another favorable matchup against the Jaguars, who’ve given up the sixth most FPPG to RBs this season. Head coach Mike Tomlin told reporters that “we strive to be a balanced group. We want to be able to move it however we choose.” He further acknowledged that ramping up their rushing attack will be a priority for Week 11. Last week’s priority was improving the Steelers third down defense and the Bengals were 0 for 13 on third down conversions. With James Conner being the priority focus this week, perhaps you might want to sneak him into a couple of your DFS lineups.