Welcome to the Monday Night Showdown Slate for NFL Week 11!

As the Patriots drop to 4-6 on the season, Tom Brady and his Buccaneers are flying high right now at 7-3, looking to try and push past the Saints for the division lead. But the Rams are also sitting in a great spot at 6-3 and can take over the division lead from the Seahawks with a win as they own the tiebreaker. To increase the drama level, both teams have an array of offensive weapons but they also both have outstanding defensive units. It’s the irresistible force meeting the immovable object and we’re either looking at a fantasy points bonanza or a low-scoring snoozefest. Let’s hope for the former, shall we?

Before we start, please allow me to reiterate that while we all love having a little skin in the game, these showdown slates are basically lottery tickets. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but more often than not, you need that random, differentiate yourself from the herd dart-throw to hit in order to claim that top prize. As a result, we encourage to play responsibly. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK, lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers -4.5

O/U: 48

Betting Facts:

Money Line: Buccaneers -220; Rams +190

The Rams are 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games against Tampa Bay.

The total has hit the under in each of the Rams' last six games.

The total has hit the over in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 20 games.

Last 5 Match-Ups:

Rams led series 4-1

Average Margin of Victory – 8.0

Last Match-Up – Buccaneers beat the Rams 55-40 in Los Angeles on 9/29/2019

Notable Injuries:

Buccaneers:

Rams:

Defensive Rankings (Using DVOA):

Buccaneers:

vs Pass: 1st

vs Run: 2nd     

Rams:

vs Pass: 9th  

vs Run: 12th  

Prop Bets to Watch:

The reason we are listing these here is to help you understand what the Vegas expectations are. If you aren’t routinely amazed by how accurate spreads and totals are, you haven’t been paying attention and you’re missing out on a valuable tool. Take a look at the list below and understand how to utilize for DFS. When you see the over and under have the same money line, that’s Vegas’ way of saying it can go either way. You have the base number and can determine whether you use a player or not based on that. But when there is a different money line on the over and unders, Vegas is telling you what to expect. A negative money line means they feel it is more likely to happen which can help you make decisions regarding which players to play.

  • Tom Brady Passing Yards: 300.5 (over +108, under -134); TD Passes: 2.5 (over +180, under -235)
  • Jared Goff Passing Yards: 279.5 (over & under -112); TD Passes: 1.5 (over -180, under +142)
  • Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards: 31.5 (over & under -112); Receiving Yards: 21.5 (over & under -112)
  • Ronald Jones Rushing Yards: 51.5 (over & under -112); Receiving Yards: 12.5 (over & under -112)
  • Darrell Henderson Rushing Yards: 31.5 (over & under -112); Receiving Yards: 8.5 (over & under -112)
  • Malcolm Brown Rushing Yards: 24.5 (over & under -112); Receiving Yards: 11.5 (over & under -112)
  • Antonio Brown Receiving Yards: 58.5 (over & under -112)
  • Mike Evans Receiving Yards: 55.5 (over & under -112)
  • Chris Godwin Receiving Yards: 60.5 (over & under -112)
  • Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards: 59.5 (over & under -112)
  • Robert Woods Receiving Yards: 51.5 (over & under -112)
  • Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards: 46.5 (over & under -112)
  • Rob Gronkowski Receiving Yards: 31.5 (over & under -112)
  • Cameron Brate Receiving Yards: 9.5 (over & under -112)
  • Gerald Everett Receiving Yards: 22.5 (over & under -112)
  • Tyler Higbee Receiving Yards: 31.5 (over & under -112)

MVP/Captain

Tom Brady , QB TB – He had a fantastic bounce-back game last week and aside from that debacle against the Saints in Week 9, Brady has been outstanding over the last four weeks with nine touchdowns and two 300-yard efforts. This won’t be easy, but he’s got the weaponry to produce strong fantasy totals tonight.

Chris Godwin , WR TB – At least on paper, Godwin has the most favorable match-up of all the Bucs receivers going up against slot corner Troy Hill . With Jalen Ramsey likely covering Mike Evans for most of the night, targets should float over to Godwin and Brown a little more.

Cooper Kupp , WR LAR – While he hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last five games, Kupp remains the most-targeted receiver on the Rams and has a really nice match-up in the slot. He will square off against Sean Murphy-Bunting who has allowed a touchdown to slot receivers in three of his last four games.

Mid-Tier

Jared Goff , QB LAR – If Goff can withstand the heavy blitzing Todd Bowles likes to do, he should be able to find his receivers and his tight ends downfield. He can be prone to mistakes, but he can also sling the rock when necessary, as evidenced by his back-to-back 300-yard efforts.

Antonio Brown , WR TB – While Ramsey covers Evans and Godwin works out of the slot, Brown should see a few extra targets come his way, especially when he’s in one-on-one coverage with Darious Williams. He’s seen 13 targets through his first two games with the Bucs and, slowly but surely, is getting into a groove with Brady.

Gerald Everett , TE LAR – Most people will look to Tyler Higbee as the lead tight end, but while he may lead in snaps, Everett is leading in targets recently. The Bucs rank 27th in DVOA against the tight end and with such tight coverage everywhere else, this might be the way Goff leans in this game.

Dart Throws

Malcolm Brown , RB LAR – The Bucs run defense is solid, so I don’t know how much yardage the Rams running back will be able to accrue, but what we do know is that Brown sees the goal-line touches. If the Rams get inside the five-yard line, Brown should get the call.

Buccaneers D/ST – Todd Bowles likes to blitz and Goff, often times, struggles when he is under heavy pressure, as evidenced by the five fumbles (three lost) and six interceptions thus far. The Bucs lead the league with 17 takeaways thus far and that number should increase after this game.

Rams D/ST – While the Bucs D is solid, the Rams D ain’t no slouch either. They have 13 takeaways on the season and, they haven’t let an offense score more than 24 points in five of their last six games. We won’t count Miami posting 28 as there were two defensive touchdowns in that game. We’ve seen Brady turn the ball over plenty this season, so if he does, the Rams will be there to capitalize.