With two games being played on Monday night, we don’t even need to look ahead to Thursday or worry about the short turnaround for some players. We can focus all of our attention to finishing strong here in NFL Week 1.
With the short slate, we will focus on game breakdowns and players we will consider for DFS. You can use this to create Showdown lineups if you just want to take a crack at that single-game lottery ticket or you can use it to build yourself some short-slate lineups like we usually do for the Monday-Thursday slates.
Within the player recommendations, you will find some possibilities for your Showdown slates, but as you know, it’s usually about differentiating yourself from the pack. If you saw how things went in the Thursday Showdowns, you’re going to see a lot of lineup trains, so we don’t recommend you play heavy. Use it as an opportunity to have some fun and maybe have a little skin in the game to make it more interesting.
It’s typically the same with the short, two-game slate. I will offer a couple of GPP example lineups for you to compare your own, but we do not recommend investing heavily or even playing in cash games as the overlap is abundant and that typically increases the pay lines. The lineups provided are not meant to be used as your own.
Now let’s get to the breakdowns:
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants
Spread: Steelers -6
O/U: 45.5
Betting Facts:
New York has been a home dog 11 times over the last two seasons and is 1-10 ATS
Steelers were 9-7 ATS and their games hit the Under 12 times in 2019
Weather: Clear skies with temperatures in the high-60s; winds NNW 10-12 mph
Last 5 Match-Ups:
Steelers lead series 3-2
Average Margin of Victory -- 9.6 points
Last Match-Up – Steelers beat the Giants 24-14 in Pittsburgh (Dec 4, 2016)
Notable Injuries:
Steelers:
G David DeCastro (knee) questionable
WR Diontae Johnson (foot) questionable
Giants:
WR Golden Tate (hamstring) questionable
TE Levin Toilolo (hamstring) questionable
If you are playing the Showdown Slate, here are players who I am considering:
Ben Roethlisberger , QB PIT – The return of Big Ben should be a positive one, given the defense he is facing this week. The Giants defensive line has promise and Blake Martinez in the middle of the linebackers is nice, but this secondary is going to be problematic all year. The short preseason will expose its lack of cohesiveness and Ben should have little trouble hitting his targets early.
Daniel Jones, QB NYG – We watched him toss 30-point fantasy games a number of times last year, but we’re looking at a very tough match-up as this Steelers defense is strong. We expect Pittsburgh to control the flow of this game for much of it, but as a result, it should force the Giants into a very pass-heavy scheme. It doesn’t matter of the Giants win the game or not, just as long as Jones keeps throwing.
Saquon Barkley , RB NYG – He’s an elite running back who, even in a match-up like this can thrive with the best of them, thanks to his strong pass-catching abilities. The Giants will try to control the pace early and lead with Barkley, but even when they fall behind and find themselves in catch-up mode, he’ll see a ton of check-downs and screen passes come his way.
James Conner , RB PIT – He’s an underrated bell-cow who climbed up the fantasy ADP boards the closer we got to the start of the season. He’s healthy, he can take it between the tackles as well as take it to the outside and he can catch passes out in the flat. The Steelers will lean on him early in an effort to set up the play-action, so he will stay involved throughout the night.
JuJu Smith-Schuster , WR PIT – He should see the majority of his snaps come from the slot as that is where he is most effective. The match-up against cornerback Logan Ryan actually grades out as a positive one and if you factor in Ryan joining the team on August 31, we can expect some potential coverage schemes blown.
Diontae Johnson, WR PIT – He’s a fantastic deep threat and should see a combination of Corey Ballentine and Isaac Yiadom in coverage. Yiadom was acquired from Denver the week before the season began so he is still learning the system. He should be good for a few deep balls when Roethlisberger spots him in one-on-one coverage.
Sterling Shepard , WR NYG – This should be an interesting battle as Sheppard will likely draw veteran corner Joe Haden in coverage. While Haden’s reputation is strong, he is older and he doesn’t have the speed he once had. Shepard should find ways to gain position on him during this game and he is likely to end up getting the larger portion of the target share.
Darius Slay ton, WR NYG – We saw how explosive Slayton can be and he’s definitely got the speed to break away from Steven Nelson in coverage. He’s a decent-sized guy but can be thrown off his game when the coverage gets more physical with him, so expect to see him take some hits on the line. If he can get past them, he should get some strong work downfield.
Evan Engram , TE NYG – He could end up being Jones’ bread and butter when the pass-rush gets intense. The short, quick passes are a great way to neutralize that and Engram is a strong pass-catcher for sure. Vegas has his player prop set at 4.5 receptions for the game and the over is a surprising -157. To put that in perspective, the prop on Shepard’s receptions is also 4.5 but the over is +139 right now.
Eric Ebron , TE PIT – We expects Ebron to serve in the same capacity as he did in Indianapolis. It’s all about the red zone, the end zone to be more specific. There isn’t a whole lot of expectation regarding his yardage, but if you’re just looking for a TD at a bargain cost, he’s your guy.
Dart Throws:
Benny Snell, RB PIT – If the game gets out of hand, Snell could have fourth quarter mop-up duty against a soft defense.
James Washington , WR PIT – He should see a few targets come his way at some point and he can play a decent vertical game inside the end zone too.
Chase Claypool, WR PIT – Rave reviews for the rookie during the preseason, but chances of carving out a big enough role seem unlikely. Makes him a dangerous contrarian pick, perhaps.
Kaden Smith, TE NYG – We watched Smith get Jones’ attention last year while Engram was hurt. Perhaps we land a red zone play where the defense forgets to cover him after he releases off the line.
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
Spread: Titans -3
O/U: 40.5
Betting Facts:
Ryan Tannehill is 8-4-1 ATS as a starter for the Titans
The Broncos are 18-2 outright over their last 20 season-opening home games; 59-10 for their history
Weather: clear skies with temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s; winds S 8-10mph
Last 5 Match-Ups:
Broncos lead series 3-2
Average Margin of Victory – 10.2
Last Match-Up – Broncos beat the Titans in Denver (Oct. 13, 2019)
Notable Injuries:
Titans:
none
Broncos:
WR Courtland Sutton (shoulder) questionable
WR K.J. Hamler (hamstring) questionable
LB Von Miller (ankle) out
If you are playing the Showdown Slate, here are players who I am considering:
Ryan Tannehill , QB TEN – While many will dismiss Tannehill because a QB in a run-heavy scheme lacks the GPP upside you want, things could go a little differently from what is expected. Yes, they will lead with the rushing attack, but with the altitude being a potential issue for Derrick Henry , we may see Tannehill passing the ball a little more than usual. The Broncos were able to bottle up Henry last year and if they find success again, this game could come down to Tannehill slinging the rock. Too much uncertainty for the Captain’s chair, I think.
Drew Lock , QB DEN – Under new OC Pat Shurmur, we could see Lock throw the ball around a lot more than what we saw last year. He potentially loses a huge weapon in Courtland Sutton (shoulder – GTD), but has three running backs to catch passes along with a handful of wideouts and a solid pass-catching tight end. The upside sits about the same as Tannehill’s, so you may not want him in the Captain’s seat.
Derrick Henry , RB TEN – This is going to come down to how well Henry handles the altitude differences. Last year when the Titans traveled to Denver, he rushed the ball just 15 times for 28 yards and failed to find the end zone. If he comes in with the same preparation, you’re going to want to fade him, which, in truth, is the way I am leaning as you will see in the GPP lineups for the two-game slate.
Melvin Gordon , RB DEN – Speaking of handling the altitude, Gordon, realized just how difficult it was to get used to and he had already played in Denver a few times when he was with the Chargers. Now that he’s been getting used to it, he could be a nice choice tonight. His preseason didn’t look all that special and people are talking about Philip Lindsay getting a heavier workload than originally estimated, but he’s not as good a pass-catcher or pass-blocker as Gordon is so we expect Gordon to see the heavier snap-count.
Phillip Lindsay , RB DEN – He’ll spell Gordon from time to time and could get mixed in even more should Gordon struggle early. Remember, it wasn’t Lindsay’s preseason that earned him a potentially larger share, it was Gordon’s struggles. That should hold true tonight as well.
A.J. Brown, WR TEN – He’s probably the best receiver who will step onto that field tonight as Brown has it all. He’s big, he’s physical and he’s got the speed to beat corners downfield. When he gets the ball in his hands, he fights tooth and nail for each and every yard. He’ll find success tonight when he’s matched up against Davontae Harris and if Henry struggles on the ground, his targets should soar.
Adam Humphries , WR TEN – Tannehill loves the short, quick timing routes and that puts a lean on the slot receiver more than it does anyone on the outside. Well, maybe not Brown as we isn’t afraid to go over the middle, but nevertheless, Humphries could play an important role if the ground attack isn’t working.
Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN – With Courtland Sutton dealing with a shoulder issue, this could be Jeudy’s time to shine. He was a no-brainer pick for the Broncos in the draft and while the hope was he would develop as the team’s No. 2, being thrust into the lead role tonight could prove to be a great thing for him. He should see a lot of Malcolm Butler in coverage which gives him a positive match-up and a decent size advantage.
Tim Patrick , WR DEN – His workload will depend on Sutton’s health, but if Sutton struggles or needs to sit this one out, Patrick should be able to carve out some decent work in the passing game. He may have some difficult with Jonathan Joseph in coverage, but his speed could be a big difference-maker in this particular match-up.
Noah Fant, TE DEN – He should be a reliable target anyway, but even more so if Sitton is out. He’s a big body who can get nice and physical when he has to pick up yards after the catch. Many are calling for a breakout season and the -139 on the over for his 3.5 receptions player prop is encouraging.
Jonnu Smith , TE TEN – Wirth no Delanie Walker , this could be a great time for Jonnu Smith . Held back as a blocking tight end for a few seasons, Smith started to shine once Walker was injured or out. If he can maintain that level this year as the starter, perhaps the targets, particularly inside the red zone, will increase.
Dart Throws:
Royce Freeman , RB DEN – If Gordon continues to struggle with the altitude, Freeman has also stood out as a better pass-catcher and pass-blocker than Lindsay as well. He is likely to find his way into the game for a few snaps as many coaches are easing their players into the season and there’s always a chance that appearance comes near the end zone.
Courtland Sutton , WR DEN – Purely a contrarian dart throw. He’s a game-time decision due to a shoulder injury and the only reason you would use him is if you think he’s going to play without limits and everyone else is scared to use him. If you are setting multiple lineups, you can give it a go, but understand the risks.
DaeSean Hamilton , WR DEN – If Sutton is out or seriously limited, Hamilton becomes the slot receiver in three-receiver sets. The targets are going to be limited, but hey, isn’t that what a dart throw is all about?
Corey Davis , WR TEN – I never like using Davis in any of my lineups so while the truthers still linger, he’s nothing more than a dart throw for me. He’ll also see A.J. Bouye in coverage a bunch too, so take that for what it is.
Kalif Raymond , WR TEN – He’s a deep threat who shows up on the field in three-receiver sets and we’ve seen him come down with that random late-game bomb. If the Titans struggle in this one and Tannehill is forced to air it out in the second half, Raymond could slip behind the coverage in the secondary.
Anthony Firkser , TE TEN – If you believe Smith is the better blocker and will be held back as such (looking at you, Andrew Cooper), then Firkser could be the TE dart throw you are looking for in these short slates. Talk about a contrarian play, we’ve seen it hit before.