NFL DFS Playbook: Week 8
Howard Bender pores over the data and the match-ups to bring you his favorite plays for NFL Week 8 DFS main slate contests.
Welcome to the DFS Playbook for NFL Week 8!
For seven-straight weeks, we've persevered through COVID-19 scares, postponed games, tons of injuries and bye weeks to turn a solid profit and while you'd like to think the fantasy gods would give us a break just for one week, they have decided to pile on and employ Mother Nature to do her worst. OK, maybe not her worst, but she certainly is complicating things. This is the first week where weather is likely to play a major factor. If you caught the Watch List update on Friday, you would have seen the weather update as there are a few games where rain and high winds are expected to be a major factor. I'll give up another update here, but before I do, keep in mind that you shouldn't make ANY final decisions until you check the weather closer to kickoff time. We have seen wind-scares before that have come in on a Thursday or Friday only to see them die down by Sunday morning and become a non-factor.
The key here is to understand what the weather actually is and not to overreact. You should be checking the Weather Center here at Fantasy Alarm because we have people updating every situation in real-time. Once you feel you have a firm grasp on each situation, you can make a determination as to what kind of conditions are affecting which players.
Here's a look at the games with potential weather issues:
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals: High wind alert of 15-20mph sustained with gusts around 30. This will have an effect on deeep throws and the kicking game.
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: Sustained winds of around 20-25mph to start (gusts close to 40), with the majority of the game being played with winds more like 15-20mph and 30mph gusts. This will have an effect on deeep throws and the kicking game.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: Rain expected throughout most of the game with 10-15mph (closer to 15) winds and stronger gusts. The slick surface and ball will be more of an issue than the winds probably.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: Sustained winds around 20mph, scattered showers throughout the game and temperatures in the low-40s. This game will be cold, wet and sloppy.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns: Sustained winds here between 25-30mph, with gusts likely around 45. Winds are expected to run parallel to the field, so with it at your back the ball could sail away and against the wind, it could hit a wall. The passing and kicking games will be dramatically affected.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: Winds around 25mph sustained and gusts close to 40mph early, with winds gradually winding down in the second half. It's also going to be very cold, temp in the 30s with a feels-like temp in the 20s.
Again, Mother Nature can be quite fickle, so while these forecasts have remained quite similar over the last two days, things could still change, They could improve, yes, but they could also get worse, so we'll update again Sunday morning.
Before we get to the actual players in the Playbook, a few reminders for those who may be joining us late, here is your three-step process to lead you up to going through your favorite Playbook plays:
Step 1: Check out the DFS Position Coaches
Step 2: Check out the rest of the relevant DFS content
In addition to the positional coaching pieces, you also have things like the DFS Watch List, where I provide you with a list of players I am looking at throughout the week. We have the NFL DFS Podcast with me and Jon Impemba (@jimpemba777), who also does the Contrarian Corner video and check out the DFS Bargains from Jen Piacenti (@jenpiacenti). Our Master of Tools, Matt Selz (@theselzman), supplies you data junkies with the Weekly Match-Up Report and everyone should also be reading the Weekly Game Previews and WR/CB Match-Up Report from Ryan Hallam (@fightingchance).
Step 3: Make your own list of players
It's real easy to just sit and wait for the Playbook, but as you are doing your research throughout the week, it is important to make notes and list the players who interest you the most. Maybe they end up in the Playbook and maybe they don't. If they're there, then great, it should mean we are honing in on the same things that make him a strong play. If not, maybe you're onto something else that someone overlooked. We aren't perfect and if you uncover something different, maybe you're right. I would be careful of routine groupthink and hype from beat writers, but often times someone will tell me something they saw about their local team that I missed and I am always looking to investigate more if its there. If you do, then say something in the chat. Talk it out and see what the rest of the #FAmily thinks.That's why the chat is there, isn't it?
With those three steps complete and discussions are in progress, you are ready to look at the Playbook players, make comparisons and finalize your list for lineups, so let's get to it.
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